The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a 6-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Elias Lindholm ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
Skating next to Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau has its advantages, and Elias Lindholm is making the most of the opportunity. Lindholm projects as a top option up the middle against the Buffalo Sabres.
The Calgary Flames’ top line is tormenting opponents. Lindholm and company have combined for 213 points through 180 games, with all three players averaging better than a point per game. Their production metrics as a unit are far superior to any other line, with Lindholm being on the ice for 200 more scoring chances than the next closest player. Lindholm and his linemates drive the Flames scoring, and no one has an answer to stop them.
The Sabres have a hard time limiting opponents at the best of times, let alone on the second night of a back-to-back on the road. Lindholm and his linemates could easily surpass their projected fantasy ceiling on Friday night.
Top Value
Nicklas Backstrom ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel) vs. Carolina Hurricanes
The Washington Capitals continue to put up some gaudy offensive metrics, and we project Nicklas Backstrom to get in on the action against the Carolina Hurricanes on Friday night.
The Swedish center skates on the Caps’ second line while also getting time on the top powerplay unit with the most talented players on the roster. Backstrom has used this time effectively, putting up the second-best high-danger chance rating and best scoring chance percentage. Washington recognizes Backstrom’s offensive upside, giving him 74.6% of his zone starts in the attacking end.
Despite the strong underlying metrics, Backstrom remains below his career shooting percentage, posting his second-lowest total over the past eight years. We’ve pegged Backstrom as a progression candidate, and we like him as a value play against the Canes.
Wing
Top Play
David Pastrnak ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) vs. Winnipeg Jets
The Boston Bruins are running hot right now, and David Pastrnak continues to pave the way for them offensively. Pasta should keep the good times rolling against the defensively-challenged Winnipeg Jets.
Pastrnak leads the B’s forwards corps in every major offensive category, pacing the team in on-ice shots, scoring, and high-danger chances while posting the second-best Corsi rating. All told, Pastrnak has a 64.7% expected goals-for rating, which is above his actual percentage of 63.8%. That implies that we could see further growth from Pastrnak, who has delivered 20 shots on target over his past four games.
The Jets appear to have abandoned any semblance of defensive zone coverage, allowing 10 or more high-danger opportunities in four straight games. Pasta is positioned to break out in a big way.
Top Value
Cam Atkinson ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
Philadelphia Flyers winger Cam Atkinson is riding a four-game point streak into tonight’s battle with the Ottawa Senators. Senators goalies have been exposed recently, and the Flyers will hope to get in on the action.
Atkinson is the Flyers’ points leader but plays a defensive role with the team that adds fantasy value on both ends of the ice. Playing on the powerplay and penalty kill gives Atkinson opportunities to earn points with scoring metrics while also filling shooting lanes. The 32-year-old ranks seventh on the team in blocked shots and has managed three short-handed goals so far this season. Strong two-way play is a valuable box to check on both DFS platforms, elevating Atkinson’s fantasy value.
The Sens have given up 15 goals over their past three games, allowing at least four in each contest. Atkinson and the Flyers can extend that lousy streak.
Defense
Top Play
Aaron Ekblad ($6,400 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel) vs. Anaheim Ducks
Few teams have had an answer for Aaron Ekblad and the Florida Panthers this season. We’re not expecting the Anaheim Ducks to slow them down on Friday.
The Panthers deploy Ekblad with their top offensive producers, helping the young defender set benchmarks in most offensive categories. The former Calder Trophy winner has been on the ice for the most shots, scoring, and high-danger chances, resulting in a team-best 101.8 goals-for. He makes an outstanding first pass out of the zone, leading the team with 29-second assists.
Ekblad has points in two of his previous four games, but he’s totaled seven points in those contests. Once again, he projects as a top-rated option in our algorithm, and another multi-point effort could put him near his fantasy ceiling.
Top Value
Matt Grzelcyk ($3,800 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Winnipeg Jets
Charlie McAvoy has been top of the Bruins’ defensive depth chart for a few seasons; however, Matt Grzelcyk is starting to take a bigger piece of the pie.
Grzelcyk sits right behind McAvoy in expected goals-for rating, coming in 0.3% lower with a rating of 58.4%. The Bruins are giving Grzelcyk more offensive responsibility, playing him on the team’s second powerplay unit while starting him 58.8% of the time in the attacking zone. The Massachusett’s native hasn’t forgone his defensive responsibilities, putting up 68 blocked shots through 54 games.
Grzelcyk is one point off his career-high and will have plenty of opportunities to set a new benchmark against the Jets on Friday night.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Darcy Kuemper ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
The Colorado Avalanche continue to run roughshod over the NHL, and the San Jose Sharks could be just another speed bump as they race towards the postseason.
Darcy Kuemper is the hottest goalie in the league right now, coming off consecutive shutouts over the Calgary Flames and Los Angeles Kings, allowing just one goal over his past three starts. He’s positioned to continue that elite play against a Sharks team that doesn’t have much offensive firepower. San Jose has been limited to a combined six high-danger and 29 scoring chances at five-on-five over their last couple of games, totaling just two goals.
We’re expecting another lights-out performance from Kuemper against an ineffective Sharks team. He rates as one of the best goalie options available on tonight’s docket.
Top Value
Martin Jones ($7,700 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
The Flyers have deployed Martin Jones sparingly this season, but he gets his shot against the Senators. Jones has put forth some noteworthy efforts recently, and he could collect his eighth win of the season on Friday night.
The nine-year veteran has posted above-average save percentages in two of his past three outings and is coming off a 33-save effort against the Carolina Hurricanes. He can rely on the Flyers’ improved defensive play to extend that streak against the Sens. Philadelphia has limited its opponents to nine or fewer high-danger and 23 or fewer scoring chances in two straight games.
The Sens’ offense has also hit an offensive wall, scoring on just 5.4% of their shots over their previous two outings. Both factors will play a role in Jones reaching his fantasy ceiling on Friday.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Several variables factor into the Calgary Flames being highlighted as our top stack on Friday’s slate. They remain one of the best analytics teams in the league, and they host the Buffalo Sabres on the second night of a back-to-back amid a downturn in their already poor metrics.
As noted, the Flames’ top line delivers elite offensive metrics. One of the most highly rated combinations includes Elias Lindholm and Johnny Gaudreau. Not only are they the Flames’ top offensive producers, but their success correlates well together as they skate on the first line and powerplay unit. Defensively, Noah Hanifin provides the most upside on tonight’s slate. Hanifin spends time with Calgary’s top producers and has directed 13 shots on net over his past three games. Jacob Markstrom is the projected starter and worth including on any Flames stack as he continues his resurgent year.
All signs point to the Flames tonight, as they enter tonight’s contest as -420 favorites after opening in the -330 range. That confidence is reflected in our projections, and the Flames are our notable stack.
