The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a six-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Auston Matthews ($9,300 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
There’s no holding Auston Matthews down. At least, that’s what our projections imply when the Toronto Maple Leafs play the Columbus Blue Jackets on the second night of a back-to-back Tuesday.
After putting up 18 points, including eight goals, over a nine-game point streak, the Leafs’ top-line center has been held pointless over his past two outings.
Matthews remains a threat anytime he’s on the ice, leading Toronto in Corsi rating across all strengths and on-ice high-danger chances. He’ll be ready to exploit a Blue Jackets team that has allowed 47 high-danger chances at five-on-five and 14 goals against over their past four games.
Matthews starts 70.4% of his shifts in the attacking zone, driving possession and scoring while on the ice. We’re expecting that to lead to a jump in production against an ineffective Blue Jackets team.
Top Value
Joel Eriksson Ek ($5,100 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
The Minnesota Wild are flourishing right now, winning nine of their past 12 games. They’ll have a chance to extend their hot streak against the Ottawa Senators on Tuesday night, facilitating Joel Eriksson Ek’s upward trajectory.
The Swedish center comes into tonight’s inter-conference battle on a four-game point streak. Eriksson Ek has recorded three goals and five points over that span, centering the Wild’s top power-play unit.
That has contributed to his solid offensive ratings, as Eriksson Ek has been on the ice for the third-most high-danger and fifth-most scoring chances across all strengths for the Wild.
According to our projections, Eriksson Ek has an elite fantasy ceiling but has a moderately-priced salary on both platforms. That makes him our favorite value play up the middle on Tuesday’s slate.
Wing
Top Play
Filip Forsberg ($6,200 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) vs. Florida Panthers
Improved play from Filip Forsberg has helped the Nashville Predators assert themselves as playoff contenders. The Preds sit fourth in the Central Division and will be looking to snap out of a four-game losing streak against the Florida Panthers on Tuesday.
Injuries played a part in Forsberg being limited to 39 games last season. Still, the 27-year-old has already surpassed last season’s point total in fewer games this season.
Forsberg has the third-best scoring chance and second-best Corsi rating on the Preds while getting 68.4% of his starts in the offensive zone. Those metrics support that Forsberg is well-positioned to improve on his recent scoring streak in which he’s recorded 11 points over his past eight games.
The Preds’ offense needs to snap out of their funk, and their metrics support that they are trending in the right direction, improving their high-danger chances over their past three games. We’re projecting that leads to increased scoring for Forsberg and the Preds against the Panthers.
Top Value
Troy Terry ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
The Anaheim Ducks’ resurgent season has been driven by their young, talented core. Included in that is Troy Terry, who leads the team with 44 points. Terry is undervalued on Tuesday’s slate, making him a value play against the San Jose Sharks.
Terry is second among Ducks forwards in shots, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities while starting just 51.3% of his shifts in the attacking zone. The 24-year-old’s output has dipped recently, as Terry has been held pointless in four of his past eight outings, despite playing above-average minutes in four of those contests and delivering at least two shots on net in every game.
We’re anticipating more output from Terry over his coming games, and that starts tonight at home against the Sharks, where he’s recorded 10 points over his previous 10 games.
Defense
Top Play
Roman Josi ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) vs. Florida Panthers
Somehow, Roman Josi continues to outdo himself. The veteran blueliner leads the Predators in assists, points, powerplay points, ice-time, and most advanced metrics. It’s no wonder that we’re recommending Josi as the top play on defense.
The former Norris Trophy winner is the on-ice leader in shots, scoring and high-danger chances. Josi’s metrics are not only the best among the team but put him near the top of most categories across the NHL. More impressively, Josi is riding a five-game point streak into Tuesday night’s matchup against the Panthers, a span in which he’s recorded eight points, with six of those coming at even-strength.
Josi drives the offensive bus for the Predators, getting 66.1% of his zone starts in his opponents’ end. We’re expecting increased output from the Preds over their coming games, and Josi should factor into the scoring.
Top Value
Cam Fowler ($5,400 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
Part of the Ducks’ success this season is being driven by their strong defensive corps. Their top four scoring and high-danger chance leaders are defensemen, leaving several quality rearguards to choose from on tonight’s slate. We’ve landed on Cam Fowler as a value play on the blue line.
Fowler is on pace to set a four-year high in scoring, already recording 25 points through 48 games, leaving him four points shy of his 2019-20 point total.
Although Fowler doesn’t always find his way onto the scoresheet, he adds fantasy value with shots and blocks as well. The Canadian-born D-man adds value on both ends of the ice tonight against a Sharks team that has given up 15 or more high-danger opportunities at five-on-five in three of their past five games.
What’s most impressive about Fowler’s metrics is that he ranks second in high-danger chances and first in scoring opportunities despite getting only 36.1% of his starts in the attacking zone. Fowler could easily surpass the implied value of his salary against the division rival Sharks.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Ville Husso ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Tonight sets up as a bit of a flat spot for the Philadelphia Flyers. Philly is coming off an overtime loss to the Carolina Hurricanes yesterday and has been outplayed in three of its previous five games. That sets Ville Husso and the St. Louis Blues up for success on Tuesday night.
The Finnish netminder has been brilliant for the Blues this season, compiling a 12-3-2 record while stopping 93.6% of shots and posting a 1.98 goals-against average. Husso’s advanced metrics are even more compelling, as he’s got 15.0 goals saved above average and is stopping 87.2% of high-danger chances.
The Blues have done well to insulate their young goalie, allowing eight or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five in four of their last five games, with a five-game rolling average of 6.6 quality chances allowed per game.
Husso and the Blues come into tonight’s matchup rested and should be able to get past an underwhelming Flyers squad. The Blues’ goalie is the top play between the pipes.
Ilya Sorokin ($7,800 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Kraken
The New York Islanders are in a similar position as the Blues. The Isles take on the Seattle Kraken, who wrap up their back-to-back on home ice, after dropping a 5-2 decision to the Vancouver Canucks last night. We like New York’s chances in this inter-conference matchup.
Ilya Sorokin is the confirmed starter against the Kraken but comes in undervalued relative to his projections. The Russian goalie is coming off consecutive strong outings, stopping a combined 51-of-54 shots.
He should be able to maintain that solid play against a Kraken team that lacks offensive firepower, ranking near the bottom of most offensive categories this season. That lackluster offensive play is evident over their recent sample, as the Kraken haven’t attempted more than nine high-danger or 23 scoring chances in any of their last five games.
The Islanders rely on defensive structure to limit their opponents, which will restrict the Kraken’s already diminished offensive output. That sets Sorokin up for success on Tuesday’s slate.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
The Florida Panthers are putting together one of the most dominant offensive seasons in recent memory and are on track to surpass the 319 goals put up by the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2018-19. Once again, the Panthers have several highly-rated lineup combinations and are our notable stack on Tuesday’s docket.
Starting up front, we’re pairing two of the Panthers’ top point-getters, Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe.
Barkov and Verhaeghe skate together on the Panthers’ top line and have elite offensive metrics, encapsulated in their respective 60.7% and 58.1% expected goals-for ratings.
Defensively, Aaron Ekblad shoulders most of the offensive burden, leading the team in on-ice shots, scoring and high-danger opportunities. That’s plainly illustrated over his recent game scores, as Ekblad has recorded a goal and an assist in three straight games, part of a bigger five-game point streak.
Sergei Bobrovsky is the projected goalie, and he’s worth including in any Panthers stack as he continues his strong campaign.
The Panthers’ moneyline wager opened in the -195 range but has been bought up to -235. That confidence is reflected in our projections, rating the Panthers as one of the best stacking options available.
