The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a large 11-game main slate at 7:00 pm ET.
Skaters
Studs
Today’s slate features seven skaters priced at $7,500 or above on DraftKings, five of whom are centermen:
- Alex Ovechkin: Wing, $8,200 vs. Toronto
- Sidney Crosby: Center, $8,100 @ New York Rangers
- Connor McDavid: Center, $8,000 vs. Carolina
- Auston Matthews: Center, $7,900 @ Washington
- Steven Stamkos: Center, $7,600 @ New Jersey
- Brent Burns: Defense, $7,500 vs. Montreal
- Tyler Seguin: Center, $7,500 vs. Arizona
Instead of starting at the top of the salary spectrum, let’s begin with Seguin, as Dallas has the slate’s highest implied total at 3.7 goals at home against Arizona. The Coyotes have averaged the most goals against per game (4.40 GA/Gm) and the eighth-most shots against per game (34.6 SA/Gm) through five games. Arizona was also top-three in both categories in 2016. Even though they have started the year allowing the seventh-fewest power play opportunities (3.4 TSH/Gm), the Coyotes remain a premium opponent to attack. Over the past year Seguin’s 4.22 shots+blocks per game falls in the 97th percentile, and he is on a peripheral stat tear to start the year, leading the slate with 7.4 shots+blocks per game. He has just four points (goals + assists) for a team scoring the seventh-fewest goals for per game (GF/Gm), but there are few get right spots that look better on paper than at home against the Coyotes.
Burns has disappointed to start the year — with just one assist through four games — but he remains one of the best peripheral options in any slate. He has averaged a -0.07 DraftKings Plus/Minus at 4.0 PPG and an 11 percent ownership rate in 2017. You definitely want more from a guy you are paying roughly $7,800 for on a nightly basis, but that he’s nearly hit his salary-based expectations with just one point is a testament to his high floor. Over the past two years, Burns trails only Erik Karlsson at the position with his 0.92 points per game, so getting out in front of his progression makes a ton of sense at his current ownership rates. He could fly under the radar again tonight against a Montreal team that has allowed the fewest goals and yet the third-most shots per game this year.
Ovechkin has cooled off after starting the season with seven goals in fewer than five full regulation periods. Naturally, that 287-goal pace was unsustainable, but his 5.8 shots per game is well above his career average of 4.9, which is encouraging if you are looking to pay up at forward. The Capitals are second on the slate with 3.3 implied goals at home against a Maple Leafs team that’s been short-handed at the sixth-highest rate in the league in 2017. The Capitals have been top-five in power play percentage in each of the last five seasons, and Ovechkin’s 101 power play goals over that time period are 37 more than any other forward has. Playing Ovi naked could be the way to go. His linemates may provide strong correlation in tournaments, but Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie both fall below the 80th percentile in shots per game over the past year.
Values
Kailer Yamamoto: With a 99 percent FanDuel Bargain Rating, he has an egregious $3,800 price tag, given that he’s slated to play on the Oilers top line with McDavid for the second straight game. The 2017 first-round pick has averaged five shots on goal over his past two games and should also see time on the first power play unit against the Hurricanes. Last year in major junior, he finished sixth in the Western Hockey League scoring race with a 42-57-99 stat line for the Spokane Chiefs.
Josh Morrissey: At just 3,500 on DraftKings, he’s a reasonable punt defenseman skating on the second power play unit, averaging 3.2 blocked shots per game. His 4.57 shots+blocks per game this season is the highest of any power play skater priced below $4,500. The Sabres are sixth today with 3.0 implied goals, and even though the Blue Jackets have allowed the fewest power play opportunities in the league they have the eighth-lowest penalty kill at 76.9 percent.
One-timers
Mike Hoffman: While Evander Kane and Viktor Arvidsson will also be popular mid-range wingers — and both are great plays — the $900 savings on DraftKings to move down to Hoffman could be crucial if you’re looking to pay up for Dallas and Washington stacks. He is top-12 on the slate in shots+blocks per game to start the year with only Kane, Ovechkin, and Arvidsson ahead of him at wing. Probably the biggest concern with Ottawa is that Vancouver appears to have significantly improved on the penalty kill. The Canucks were third worst in the NHL last year, but have improved from 76.7 percent to 87.5 percent, which is sixth best. That said, the Senators are implied for 3.2 goals and could go under-owned with the aforementioned Stars and Capitals in the slate.
Kris Letang: His $6,400 price tag and 90 percent DraftKings Bargain Rating make him an appealing way to get exposure to Crosby: They have a 0.31 correlation coefficient in our Models, and they both lead the slate with 12 Pro Trends. The Penguins are just outside the top tier with an implied total of 3.1 goals at home, and they face a Rangers team that falls in the top 10 in goals allowed per game and bottom five in penalty kill percentage. Letang has been slowed down by injuries the past couple years, but Karlsson (0.90) is the only defensemen who has averaged more points per game than Letang (0.85) over the last five seasons.
Notable Stacks
One of our highest-rated four-man DraftKings stacks currently belongs to the Dallas Stars.
Pivoting off of Alexander Radulov to Devin Shore on the Stars first power play unit makes sense in terms of salary and peripheral stats. Radulov has been a 70th percentile player in shots per game over the past year while Shore trails only Jared McCann (4.0) on the slate with his 2.6 shots+blocks per game among power play centermen under $4,000. That’s not fantastic by any means, but getting cheap correlation with likely the slate’s top power play option could certainly pay off as Shore had two assists in his last game. As if the Stars weren’t already in a premium spot, they will also have the pleasure of facing a Coyotes team that is giving goaltender Adin Hill his first career start.
On FanDuel, one of the top three-man stacks belongs to the Nashville Predators.
Johansen and Forsberg are far better values on DraftKings but will likely have lower ownership on FanDuel, and given the loose pricing it probably makes sense to take the ownership discount for tournaments, especially since the Predators have scored the second-most power play goals in the league. Their implied total of 3.2 goals is third-highest mark in the slate, and they face an Avalanche team that allowed the most goals per game last year (3.37) with the second-worst penalty kill percentage (76.6).
Goalies
Wins are heavily weighted in both DraftKings & FanDuel goalie scoring, so it makes sense that ownership skews toward the heavy favorites.
- Dallas -230 vs. Arizona
- Ottawa -185 vs. Vancouver
- Nashville -171 vs. Colorado
Ben Bishop will start for the Stars, but his peripheral stat ceiling could be limited even if he gets the win. Dallas has allowed the second-fewest shots on goal this year and the eighth-most goals per game. The Coyotes had the third-fewest shots for per game (27.8) last year, although they did score the fourth-fewest goals per game (2.33).
The Senators will send Craig Anderson between the pipes against a Vancouver team in the bottom four in shots per game both last year and this year. Ottawa has played great defense this season, allowing the seventh-fewest shots per game (29.4) and the fewest goals per game (1.60). Like Bishop, Anderson could be in trouble if he doesn’t get the win since he has a low peripheral floor.
At the time of writing the Predators goaltender has not been announced, but either Pekka Rinne or Juuse Saros will start and be in cash consideration. Of the three heavy favorites, the Predators have the most neutral situation for their goaltender. Nashville has allowed the 14th-most shots per game to start the season, and Colorado has moved from 27th to 17th in shots for per game and is implied for a slate-low 2.4 goals.
Laurent Brossoit is notable. The Oilers are fifth in the slate as -135 home favorites, and the Hurricanes are sixth in shots for per game this year. Of the three home favorite goaltenders priced at $7,500 or lower on FanDuel, Brossoit is the only one on a team allowing shots in the top half of the league and facing an opponent implied for fewer than 3.0 goals.
Allowing just two goals over his last three starts, Roberto Luongo is in consideration for guaranteed prize pools as goalies tend to be low-owned as road underdogs. The Panthers are currently in the top half of the league in shots against and are facing a Flyers team averaging the tenth-most shots per game.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
