The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has an eight-game main slate at 7:00 pm ET.
Skaters
Studs
Today’s slate is loaded with elite options at forward, including all five skaters priced at $7,500 or above on DraftKings:
Ownership can closely mirror Vegas lines, especially early in the season, so many people will be rostering the Rangers and Ducks at home against Colorado and Arizona. That said, Patrick Kane will likely be a popular high-end option with a lack of expensive defensemen. Kane has a high offensive ceiling, and his shot floor is extremely safe, as he was in the 97th percentile in shots on goal per game over the past year:
Further, the Blackhawks are currently implied for 3.0 goals against the Penguins, who surrendered the third-most shots last season and seventh-most power play goals. Over the past two seasons, Kane has averaged a +2.45 FanDuel Plus/Minus at home versus +0.56 on the road.
As for the other studs, Alex Ovechkin stands out even on the road, facing an Ottawa team that is banged up already on the back end without stud defenseman Erik Karlsson (foot). The Senators took the seventh-most minor penalties last season and their 79.7 percent penalty kill rate was ninth worst. That’s great news for Ovechkin, who has scored 44.85 percent of his goals on the man advantage over the past three seasons. We can expect the first power play unit to run primarily through Ovi’s one-timer yet again in 2017:
Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin offer similar peripheral stat floors as Kane and Ovechkin but they are also on the second leg of a back-to-back after playing at home against St. Louis last night, when the sharp players faded them in the high-stakes contests.
It’s worth noting, though, that the Penguins first line with Crosby, Jake Guentzel, and Conor Sheary currently owns the second-highest line rating on the slate.
Values
Frank Vatrano was a cash game staple last year, and he gets the Predators tonight at $3,500 on FanDuel with Boston just outside the top tier implied for 2.9 goals at home. His peripheral data over the past year suggest that he’s still underpriced: He sits in the 89th and 28th percentile in shots on goal and blocked shots. Historically, wingers with comparable salaries and peripheral stat data perform above expectationa at reasonable ownership:
We talked about Brandon Montour extensively on the Pacific Division preview pod, and his DraftKings price of $3,200 probably doesn’t reflect his increased role after the Ducks sent Shea Theodore to the Las Vegas Golden Knights. Montour was great down the stretch for the Ducks, tallying seven assists in 17 playoff games after playing just 27 in the regular season. In the AHL, Montour averaged 4.11 shots per game last season.
One-timers
Jack Eichel: Whether he is worth his eight-year extension (with an annual cap hit of $10 million) remains to be seen, but for daily fantasy lineups he offers one of the best peripheral floors at a discount. Over the last year, Eichel has finished in the 97th percentile in one of our new metrics, shots+blocks per game. His 87 percent DraftKings Bargain Rating makes him appealing even on the road against Montreal, who allowed the 10th-fewest shots per game last year (29.6).
Shea Weber: With Kevin Shattenkirk, Ryan McDonagh, and John Carlson on the slate as mid-priced options with higher implied team totals, Weber could have reduced ownership. Out of all defensemen, he has the fifth-highest shots+blocks percentile in the slate, and he could be a decent pivot play against a Sabres team with the sixth-worst penalty kill percentage last year.
Notable Stacks
The highest-rated four-man DraftKings stack currently belongs to the New York Rangers.
The Rangers first power play unit has the ability to break this game against an Avalanche penalty kill that ranked second worst at 76.6 percent last year. This stack offers exposure to the entire first line as well as power play correlation. Shattenkirk should be involved and is a huge upgrade for this team, as he falls in the 92nd percentile in assists per game over the past year. Both Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider offer decent peripheral and goal-scoring upside with the added bonus of some massive salary relief by adding in Pavel Buchnevich.
On FanDuel, one of the top three-man stacks belongs to the Anaheim Ducks.
The Ducks are currently implied for 3.1 goals at home versus the Coyotes (the second-highest mark in the main slate), so they could be chalky against a team that allowed the second-most shots per game (34.1), third-most goals per game (3.15), and the fourth-most power play goals per game (0.71) in 2016.
Goalies
Wins are heavily weighted in both DraftKings & FanDuel goalie scoring, so it makes sense that ownership skews toward the heavy favorites. New York is a -193 moneyline favorite to beat the Avalanche and Anaheim is -180 to beat Arizona. Both are at home facing two of last season’s worst teams:
At the time of this writing both Henrik Lundqvist (NYR) and John Gibson (ANH) are expected to start, but that has not yet been confirmed. They are solid bets for a win and the scoring bonus. Historically, it’s been worthwhile to roster heavy favorites even with their relatively high ownership on FanDuel.
Henrik might be slightly preferable as the Rangers were 15th last year in shots allowed while the Ducks were 21st, but neither goalie has a large edge in peripherals.
Corey Crawford is in consideration for guaranteed prize pools, as the Blackhawks were top-10 in shots against last year and are facing a Penguins team whose 33.6 shots per game led the league. He will carry low ownership against the defending Stanley Cup champions, but the Blackhawks are slight favorites at home.
Jonathan Quick is notable. The Kings are second in the slate as -160 home favorites and the Flyers were top-five in shots last year, so Quick could have high ownership from people chasing moneylines and peripherals, but some caution might be warranted, as the Kings have seen some slight negative reverse line movement.
Braden Holtby might be one of the best leverage plays at goaltender considering ownership will be concentrated around the top-three favorites. Washington doesn’t give up a ton of shots (fourth fewest in the league last year), but there is always value in targeting goaltenders on good teams. Ottawa had the 17th-most shots per game last year but scored the ninth-fewest goals.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
