Figuring out what’s going on with the various backfields throughout the NFL is a strenuous process every season. Of course, this process inevitably ends with everything we thought we knew being flipped upside down by one untimely injury or suspension. This year we’ve already seen the likes of David Johnson, Dalvin Cook, and Spencer Ware go down with long-term injuries, and the cruel reality of the position means they likely won’t be the last backs to suffer this fate before the end of the year.
With that said, we now have seven weeks of data under our belts, and plenty of backfields have shown their true colors already. Injuries, suspensions, and even a change of heart by a position coach can lead to more or less playing time on a weekly basis, so exercise caution when determining how a team’s backfield might shake out in any given game. Just because a starter has a certain workload doesn’t mean his backup is guaranteed to inherit that same workload after an injury.
Without further ado, here’s a breakdown of 2017’s backfields and what we might expect moving forward.
Workhorse Backs
The most consistent way for a running back to rack up fantasy points is by getting a ton of touches. Rush attempts are obviously the primary indicator of running back involvement, but goal line carries and targets are particularly important due to their fantasy-friendly nature. This season’s workhorse backs are defined as those with at least 75 percent of their team’s running back carries, targets, and rushes inside the five-yard line (all stats through 10/23/2017):
Only three backs have managed to completely take over their team’s backfield this season, and the result has been an average of 23.5 DraftKings points per game (PPG) with a +2.82 Plus/Minus. Their large workloads haven’t gone unnoticed, as only Kareem Hunt has owned a higher average ownership on DraftKings this season (per our Trends tool).
Barring Elliott’s looming six-game suspension becoming a reality, all three workhorse backs should continue to dominate their backfields during the second half of the season. Each back’s respective massive role makes backups James Conner, Malcolm Brown, and Alfred Morris/Darren McFadden particularly intriguing handcuffs (if you’re into that kind of thing). You can keep track of all fantasy-relevant injuries with our Injury Dashboard.
Near-Workhorses
Due to the presence of other backs, injuries, and sometimes simply a lack of skill, most backs don’t consistently participate in all phases of their team’s offense. Still, plenty of backs have proven more than capable of handling the majority of at least two of our aforementioned categories:
Every back in the above table has at least 50 percent of two of his team’s running back carries, targets, or rushes inside the five-yard line. The only exception was made for Jay Ajayi, who technically has zero percent of the Dolphins’ rushes inside the five-yard line due to their punt-first offense failing to record a rush attempt from that distance this season. A few notes:
- LeSean McCoy and Javorius Allen join the three workhorses as the only backs with 80 percent of their team’s targets. This is good news for McCoy’s chances at rebounding in the second half despite the presence of renowned vulture Mike Tolbert around the goal line. Allen’s current workload seems less sustainable due to impending competition from Terrance West (calf, questionable) and eventually Danny Woodhead (IR, eligible to return Week 11).
- DeMarco Murray, Melvin Gordon, Kareem Hunt, Lamar Miller, and Carlos Hyde are the only backs to join the workhorses by reaching 50 percent in each category. Murray, Miller, and Hyde each face legitimate competition for touches in the second half of the season from Derrick Henry, D’Onta Foreman, and Matt Breida, respectively. Meanwhile, Gordon and Hunt are clearly defined as their team’s No. 1 back and are simply occasionally spelled by competent backups on passing downs. Monitor our Matchups page to see how these groups shake out as the season goes on.
- Despite the emergence of another competent backs on their own teams, Mark Ingram, Devonta Freeman, C.J. Anderson, Leonard Fournette, and Jordan Howard have managed to maintain relevance and production in all three of our categories. Fournette would likely be included in our previous section if not for missing a game with an ankle injury; he’s locked in as the Jaguars’ featured back. Ingram, Freeman, Anderson, and Howard surrender the majority of their team’s targets to another back but have still dominated run-game and goal-line usage. Each of their backups are capable runners but aren’t likely to threaten for a full-time, three-down role due to size and age concerns.
- Ajayi, Mike Gillislee, Jonathan Stewart, Ameer Abdullah, Marshawn Lynch, and Joe Mixon have failed to fulfill their lofty preseason expectations. Gillislee, Stewart, Abdullah, and Lynch are each averaging 3.8 or fewer yards per carry and have combined for zero games with 100-plus yards rushing. Each faces plenty of competition from varying amounts of competent backs on their respective rosters. Ajayi and Mixon are more-or-less locked in as their team’s three-down backs, but life on a bottom-five scoring offense hasn’t been all that great for either player.
Committee Backs
Our previous backs all serve in a committee to some extent, but they’ve at least established themselves as the lead dog in more than one phase of the game. The all-purpose outlook for the following backs is much more bleak:
Each of the above backs have owned a majority of their team’s running back touches in only one category. Some notes:
- Although they’ve split the four total carries inside the five-yard line thus far, Isaiah Crowell is likely the Browns’ preferred option near the goal line over Duke Johnson. Still, that doesn’t mean much on the league’s worst-scoring offense through eight weeks. Johnson has the 10th-best Elusive Rating (PFF) among all running backs this season and is arguably the Browns’ most-talented receiver, but he’ll continue to have a volatile workload with Crowell soaking up 14.9 touches per game.
- Frank Gore could see his goal-line touches rise with Robert Turbin on the injured reserve, but betting on a 34-year-old with a bad offensive line in the second half of a season isn’t recommended. Gore was out-snapped by Marlon Mack in Week 7 for the first time this season.
- Tevin Coleman, Christian McCaffrey, Chris Thompson, Tarik Cohen, Alvin Kamara, James White, and Theo Riddick are your token receiving backs who aren’t week-to-week factors in the run game or along the goal line due to a mix of ability, lack of size, and presence of a more-qualified back. This group still has incredible upside (perhaps with the exception of the 5’6″ and 179-pound Cohen), as they’d all likely inherent double-digit carries per game, along with an enhanced goal-line role, with an injury to their respective backfield mate(s). It’s not easy to project how a part-time back will perform in a full-time role, and it’s also difficult to assume barely-used backs behind the workhorses will assume the same gargantuan workload.
- Tolbert, LeGarrette Blount, and Rob Kelley are plodders who soak up goal-line carries but won’t ever be three-down workhorses due to their own receiving limitations and lack of desire from their own offenses to embrace a power-run game. Monitor our Vegas Dashboard to take advantage of these backs when they face positive projected game script as large favorites.
Honorable Mentions
Injuries and suspensions have drastically altered several backfields this season, including . . .
- Green Bay, where Aaron Jones out-snapped Ty Montgomery 44-7 in Week 7 after Montgomery dominated snaps for the first three weeks of the season before breaking several ribs and losing his stranglehold on the position.
- Tampa Bay, where Doug Martin has racked up an average of 17 (inefficient) touches per game since returning from suspension in Week 5. Charles Sims has continued to average 20-plus snaps per game as the team’s pass-down back.
- Arizona, where Adrian Peterson‘s usage has been tied to game script through two weeks. Andre Ellington will remain the team’s pass-down back, with Peterson racking up carries for as long as the Cardinals can remain competitive. This won’t be easy without Carson Palmer for at least four to six weeks.
- New York, where Bilal Powell has been effective on both the ground and the air, and rookie Elijah McGuire has averaged 4.8-plus yards per carry in three of his six games. Soon to be 32-years-old, Matt Forte has been the least-effective back of the group yet continues to soak up 11.6 touches per game. They’ll remain volatile, low-ceiling options when all healthy.
- Minnesota, where Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray have formed a committee in the absence of Cook. Murray posted a 18-113-1 line in Week 7 but has surrendered passing-down duties and 15-plus carries per game to a more-effective McKinnon.
- Seattle, where rookie Chris Carson‘s backfield domination didn’t last even four quarters. Since fracturing his leg, Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls have split run-game duties, with J.D. McKissic acting as the passing-down back. C.J. Prosise returned from his ankle injury in Week 7 and throws another wrench into a four-way committee working behind the league’s sixth-worst offensive line in adjusted line yards.
Be sure to research the running backs for yourself with our tools. Good luck in Week 8!
