The Wild Card Weekend NFL Dashboard
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Lions at Seahawks
The Seahawks will host the Lions as eight-point favorites this Saturday night. The Lions are currently implied to score just 17.25 points – the second-fewest of any team on the slate. The Seahawks are currently implied for 25.25. There’s a small chance of rain, but it should mostly be clear and chilly for the 8:15 ET kickoff.
Lions
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Matthew Stafford
Stafford has been dealing with a finger injury since Week 13 and has been ineffective while wearing his protective glove:
He clarified Monday that he will once again wear his protective glove Saturday. One issue with Stafford is that he failed to provide much upside even when he wasn’t injured. Overall, he threw for more than 300 yards just twice after Week 3, and he ranks 13th in DraftKings points per game (PPG). Stafford now has a tough matchup against a Seahawks defense that has held QBs to the fourth-fewest fantasy PPG this season and fewer than 200 passing yards in five of eight games in Seattle. He’s priced at $5,700 DK and has the lowest ceiling projection among all QBs priced over $5,100 DK.
RB – Zach Zenner
Zenner was the Lions’ featured back during their Week 17 loss to the Packers, playing on 64-of-66 snaps. He’s now been the team’s lead back for consecutive weeks and has played well:
Per our Trends tool, Zenner has posted a +16.76 DK Plus/Minus with 100 percent Consistency and averaged 22.1 DK points over his past two games. His absurdly high Plus/Minus is a result of his sub-$3,300 salary, but he’s still been excellent when compared to other running backs. Per Pro Football Focus, Zenner’s 0.52 fantasy points per opportunity ranks ninth among all RBs with at least 20 carries over the past two weeks. He will be challenged by a scary Seahawks defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy PPG to RBs this season and is ranked second against the rush in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Zenner is priced at $4,500 DK and has a position-high +5.07 Projected Plus/Minus.
RB – Dwayne Washington and Joique Bell
Washington and Bell combined to play two offensive snaps last week and have both averaged fewer than three yards per carry this season. Neither one is a recommended fantasy option this week.
WR – Golden Tate
The absence of Theo Riddick (wrist, injury reserce) has been great for Tate. He emerged as the team’s No. 1 WR prior to Riddick’s injury, but Tate has been especially productive without Riddick:
Per RotoViz, Tate has averaged a freakish 6.67/95.5/0.33 line with Riddick sidelined this season. Part of Tate’s success stems from his RB-like ability with the ball in his hands, as this year he has averaged a position-high 5.1 yards after the catch per target. Per our Matchups tool, Tate is likely to run many of his routes against Richard Sherman, PFF’s No. 15 cornerback, but Tate often moves across the formation and has played 28 percent of his snaps in the slot, where Sherman rarely plays. Tate is likely to have opportunities despite the tough matchup. Tate is priced at $6,100 FD with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and is the No. 5 WR in the Levitan Model.
WR – Marvin Jones
Jones has had quite the fall from greatness this season:
Jones has struggled to produce since his strong start to the season, as he has failed to gain more than 40 receiving yards and score a touchdown in the same game since Week 3. He’ll likely run most of his routes outside against the combination of Sherman and DeShawn Shead, PFF’s No. 34 CB. Jones is priced at $4,100 DK, and his 1.9-point projected floor is the lowest mark among all WRs priced over $3,500 DK.
WR – Anquan Boldin
Boldin has been a model of consistency during the second half of the season. He’s been targeted no fewer than four times and no more than eight times during his last eight games. While Boldin hasn’t surpassed 70 receiving yards in a game this season, he’s been heavily featured in the red zone. Overall, his 22 red-zone targets this season rank second among all WRs and his six red-zone TDs are tied for sixth among all WRs. Boldin’s fantasy-friendly opportunities could be limited this week, as the Seahawks have allowed the eighth-fewest red-zone opportunities per game this season. Boldin is priced at $4,800 FD with an 86 percent Bargain Rating and +2.6 Projected Plus/Minus
TE – Eric Ebron
Ebron’s role in the offense has been volatile throughout the season, but he’s been consistently involved lately. Overall, he’s been targeted five-plus times in five consecutive games. Still, Ebron has been inefficient with his opportunities, ranking outside of the top-24 TEs with 8.2 yards and 1.67 fantasy points per target. His largest obstacle this season has been a lack of a red-zone opportunities, as his nine such targets rank 24th among TEs. Ebron is priced at $5,700 FD with eight Pro Trends, although he has a tough matchup against a Seahawks defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to TEs this season.
Seattle Seahawks
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Russell Wilson
Wilson and the Seahawks have had an up-and-down season, but they get a gift on wild card weekend as they face a Lions defense that ranks dead last in DVOA both overall and versus the pass. After crushing a stout Cardinals defense in Week 16, putting up 33.6 FD points thanks to a stellar 29-350-4 line, Wilson struggled in Week 17 against the division rival 49ers, putting up a 19-258-1 line. That said, Wilson leads all starting QBs with 7.7 yards per attempt over the last 12 months. Further, he’s projected for lower ownership than Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers at 17-20 percent. That makes him an elite tournament play, especially against a poor Lions defense that just allowed 300 passing yards, 42 rushing yards, and four TDs to Rodgers in Week 17.
RB – Thomas Rawls and Alex Collins
Rawls’ disappointing season culminated in a disappointing Week 17 as he split carries with Collins and WRs Paul Richardson and J.D. McKissic. Rawls did get into the end zone, but he had only eight carries to Collins’ seven, which was especially concerning given that the 49ers allow the most fantasy points in the league to RBs. Detroit’s defense isn’t much better — it’s 23rd in rush DVOA — but there’s no reason to expect Rawls or Collins to play like a workhorse. They’re poor plays at their price points, owning FD Projected Plus/Minus values of -0.21 and -1.61.
WR – Doug Baldwin
Baldwin had only four targets in Week 17, but that was mostly because Wilson spread the ball: No pass catcher got more than seven targets. In Week 16, Baldwin turned 19 targets into a 13-171-1 line against the Cardinals — a 30.2-point FD outing. He still easily leads the team in usage and has 27.78 percent of the targets over the past four games. He has a dream matchup against the worst pass defense in football and will line up in the slot versus Lions Johnson Bademosi, who ranks 88th out 120 CBs with a poor 61.8 coverage grade. Baldwin is currently the No. 2 WR in the Bales Model for FD, where his low $6,900 salary comes with a +3.15 Projected Plus/Minus, six Pro Trends, and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. He’s projected for a fairly chalky 17-20 percent ownership, but that’s nowhere near ownership projections of the high-priced studs like Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham.
WR – Jermaine Kearse
Kearse had seven targets last week but caught only two of them for 45 yards. He now has 16 targets over the last two games and a 16.67 percent target share over the last month — second on the team behind Baldwin — but he has little upside. He’s hit double-digit FD points only once all season and has one TD over that time. He has a low 1.5-point projected FD floor and is projected for only two to four percent ownership for a reason.
WR – Paul Richardson
Richardson also had a team-high seven targets last week and even added in a rushing attempt. He turned those touches into 45 totals yards. He simply hasn’t been an important part of the offense since stepping in as the WR3 after Tyler Lockett‘s injury. He’s had 11.36 and 18.92 percent of the team’s targets over the past two weeks and has a low 1.1-point FD projected floor this weekend. He’s worth some tournament consideration because of his $4,700 price tag and elite matchup, but Wilson, outside of Baldwin, no WR is targeted regularly and heavily enough to warrant much excitement.
TE – Jimmy Graham
Over the last four weeks, Graham has 10.26, 8.33, 6.82, and 18.92 percent of the Seahawks’ targets. The Week 17 percentage is an encouraging sign, but his second-half usage has been disappointing after his stellar first half. He’s had only 11.11 percent of Wilson’s targets over the past month, although perhaps the Seahawks will try to get him more involved against a Lions team that ranks 29th in pass DVOA against TEs. Still, Graham is easily the most talented TE in this weekend’s slate. He’s currently the No. 1 TE in the Bales Model for FD, where his $6,600 salary comes with six Pro Trends and an 89 percent Bargain Rating.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
