Vegas Outliers provides a quick snapshot of year-to-date Vegas trends and their daily fantasy implications for the week’s slate of NFL games. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
The playoffs are here! To understand how the postseason teams have performed vis-à-vis Vegas, I’ve collected the point spreads and game totals for Weeks 1-17 and put them next to the year-to-date production data.
Vegas Plus/Minus
I’ve created a Vegas Plus/Minus metric (similar to our proprietary daily fantasy Plus/Minus metric) that compares actual production in points per game (PPG) with the totals implied by the Vegas data. A positive number means that a team scores more points than its implied total; a negative number, fewer points. If a team hits its Vegas-implied expectations in a game, that counts as a win; if a team fails to hit expectations, that’s a loss.
The Rams enter the playoffs first in the NFL with 29.88 PPG and a smoking +6.05 Vegas Plus/Minus even with their intentional no-show against the 49ers in Week 17. Under head coach Sean McVay, the Rams have exorcised the Jeff Fisher demons: Quarterback Jared Goff and running back Todd Gurley look like new players, they have literally an entirely different wide receiver unit with Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins, and Cooper Kupp, and the defense has been revitalized thanks to new coordinator Wade Phillips. As it happens, in the first round they are facing the Falcons, who (aside from the Raiders at -4.25) have underperformed their implied Vegas totals more than any other team has this season.
Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus
When thinking about game script, spreads, and over/unders, we should take defensive performance into account, so I’ve created a Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus. A positive number means that a team allows fewer points than its opponent’s implied total; a negative number, more points. If a team holds an opponent below its implied total, that’s a win; if a team allows an opponent to hit expectations, that’s a loss.
For much of the season the Jaguars led the league in Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus, but their 44-point Week 16 implosion in San Francisco hurt their average. At the top of the postseason cohort are the Vikings with a +3.94 Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus. The Jaguars defense is first in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), but the Vikings defense is almost as good, finishing second overall as the only unit with top-five rankings in both pass and rush DVOA. The Jags held opponents to just 16.75 PPG — but the Vikings led the league at 15.75, and after their Week 9 bye they held opponents to 14.63 PPG as they finished the year on a 7-1 run. The Jags defense is great — certainly the best of the first round — but it’s possible the NFL’s best defense won’t be playing till next week.
Over/Under Differential
Offensive production within an NFL contest is often correlated across teams. As a result, many sharp DFS players stack games (instead of just teams) in guaranteed prize pools. To highlight teams that tend to play in games that fall short of or surpass the Vegas total, I’ve created an Over/Under Differential metric. A positive number means that a team on average participates in games that hit the over; a negative number, the under.
The Falcons-Rams game leads the slate with an over/under of 48.5 points, which makes some sense given that the Rams have regularly driven games to the over with their +4.91 Over/Under Differential. The Falcons, though, have been an even stronger force, driving games to the under with their -6.78 mark, which explains why the line has moved down 1.5 points since it opened even though 59 percent of the early bets are on the over: The sharp money is expecting a relatively low-scoring game. The Falcons and Rams have many of the slate’s most popular players and will likely be heavily stacked in guaranteed prize pools, but going underweight on them in fantasy could be the smart contrarian strategy.
Spread Differential
The point spread is the go-to number for Vegas and DFS, as it is predictive of game script and outcome. I’ve created a Spread Differential metric so we can see how teams have done on a PPG basis relative to the spread. A positive number means that a team on average overperforms the spread; a negative number, underperforms.
The Rams on average have outperformed the spread by 7.19 points, whereas the Falcons have underperformed it by 1.69. That’s a market-based difference of 8.88 points — and that doesn’t take into account that the Rams are at home. It’s no wonder that they are now -6.5 favorites after opening at -5.0. That’s the largest move of the slate. Against a Falcons defense ranking last in the league in time of possession (2:57) and plays (6.3) per drive, Goff and the Rams could crush: The Falcons-Rams game is intriguing on a number of fronts.
Also intriguing is the Bills-Jags game. The Jags have a +6.75 Spread Differential, whereas the Bills have a -1.56. That market-based difference of 8.31 points is in line with the current line (Jags -8.5), but it doesn’t take into account that Jacksonville is at home or that running back LeSean McCoy (ankle) is uncertain to play. Running backs often don’t count for much in the spread, but McCoy is not a traditional back: He gives the Bills their identity. He’s averaged 1,100 yards rushing per year for the Bills over the past three seasons, and this year he leads the team with 77 targets and 59 receptions. He’s started every game this season, but in 2015-16 he missed four games. During that time the Bills averaged 25.6 PPG and 2.15 points per drive with him but just 17.4 and 1.58 without him. The line opened at -7.5 and has moved to -8.5 even though 52 percent of the bets are on the Bills: The early sharp money is on the Jags.
Research the Wild Card games with our Tools and Models.
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Photo Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
