Week 9 is a difficult slate and plus WR matchups are challenging to identify. This makes it even more important to identify the few plus matchups that do exist. Let’s break down this week’s notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
The Studs
Julio Jones vs. Vernon Hargreaves
Jones moves all over the formation, as Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan often tries to find mismatches for him. However, Julio runs most of his routes on the left side of the field, which means he should see quite a bit of Hargreaves. In Week 8, Amari Cooper exploded for 12-173-1 while spending a lot of his time in Hargreaves’ coverage. This should be considered a major upgrade for Julio.
The downside for Julio is that his volume has been extremely inconsistent this season: He has exceeded eight-plus targets in only half of his games this year, including two games with only five targets. Because of this inconsistency, Julio projects for a floor of only 14 DraftKings points this week but has the highest ceiling of any WR at 30. He is a great tournament play this week.
Antonio Brown vs. Jimmy Smith
Like Julio, Brown moves all over the formation to get mismatches but also plays the majority of snaps as the LWR. This means he should run about 50 percent of his routes against Smith on that side. Smith has been the best cornerback for the Ravens this season and helped limit both Brandon Marshall and Odell Beckham Jr. over the last two weeks. Beckham caught only two passes for 11 yards while Smith played in the first half. Outside of Smith, the Ravens have had serious cornerback trouble; once Smith left with an injury, Beckham caught six passes for 211 yards and two touchdowns.
Hopefully the Steelers can move Brown around to get him away from Smith, as the Ravens are much weaker against the RWR. Per Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average), they rank fourth against passes on the left side of the field and 11th against passes on the right.
Brown has struggled without Big Ben and has now cleared 100 yards receiving only three times this season. However, if the Steelers can get him matched up on the weaker corners of Baltimore, Brown should have another opportunity for a big day. There is some uncertainty here, though, as Sammie Coates could spend the majority of the day at that RWR spot. Brown projects for the second-highest WR ceiling on DK behind Jones.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Nolan Carroll
Beckham draws a very nice matchup against Carroll, who has struggled this season: He grades out as the 107th-ranked cornerback, per Pro Football Focus. This is a matchup that Beckham should have no trouble dominating on his end. He will get open.
The big downside for Beckham this week is less about him and more about the Eagles’ pass rush. Eli Manning has struggled this season against pressure, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns when blitzed. This is especially troublesome, as the Eagles are Football Outsiders’ top-ranked defensive unit in adjusted sack rate at 8.9 percent. For perspective, against Green Bay (the fourth-ranked unit), Eli was able to connect with Beckham on only five of his 12 targets for 56 yards and a touchdown. This is a very similar matchup. Beckham rates as the lowest of the three elite receivers in Adam Levitan’s Player Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Notable Upgrades
Jarvis Landry vs. Marcus Williams
The Jets’ secondary continues to be awful this year, ranking 31st in pass DVOA. In Week 8, they allowed two touchdowns to Cleveland slot man Andrew Hawkins; that bodes well for the more talented Landry. Over the last two games, Landry has accounted for 37 percent of Ryan Tannehill’s passing yards. His yardage has dipped, however, as Jay Ajayi has rushed for 200 yards for two straight weeks. Against this funnel defense, Tannehill should have to rely on Landry. He is the top-rated receiver in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings Player Model.
Allen Robinson vs. Phillip Gaines
If it doesn’t happen this week against Gaines, it isn’t going to happen for Robinson this year. The Chiefs have a strong overall pass defense, but they’ve been susceptible to passes on the left side of the field: Per DVOA, they rank third against passes on the right and 19th on the left. We can likely attribute this difference to their CBs: Marcus Cooper mans the right side of the field, while Gaines has struggled this year on the left.
Robinson should run over half of his routes against Gaines and should have plenty of opportunities to make plays. At a season-low price of $6,700 on FanDuel, Robinson makes for a really interesting tournament play despite his recent struggles. He saw 15 targets in Week 8 and has a 99 percent FD Bargain Rating in Week 9.
Notable Downgrades
Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree vs. Denver Secondary
Fresh off a week in which Cooper and Crabtree dismantled the Buccaneers, they now draw the Broncos. Denver has allowed a league-low -1.8 Plus/Minus to opposing wide receivers on FanDuel over the last 16 games. Interestingly, without Aqib Talib last week, the Broncos limited Dontrelle Inman to a team-high 72 yards receiving in the slot. No other receiver cleared 50 yards. They are the best secondary in football and a major downgrade to any receiver they face.
Marvin Jones and Golden Tate vs. Minnesota Secondary
The Vikings have allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points via receiving in the NFL this season. While they seemingly struggled against Jay Cutler on Monday Night Football, it is important to note that the talent has not changed here. While it is certainly possible that Xavier Rhodes shadows Jones and Terence Newman shadows Tate, we are unlikely to know the Vikings’ plan until game time. This is a downgrade for both Tate and Jones, and especially for Jones if Rhodes were to shadow him. Rhodes has not allowed a receiver to clear 61 yards against him this season.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
