The Week 9 NFL Dashboard
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Panthers at Rams
The Panthers make their way west to Los Angeles, where they are projected to be three-point road favorites against the Rams. This game currently has a Vegas total of 44.5 points. The Panthers are currently implied for 23.75 points; the Rams, 20.75.
Carolina Panthers
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Cam Newton
It’s been difficult to pinpoint when to use quarterbacks against the Rams defense. They’ve held five of their seven opponents to 16 DraftKings points or fewer but have also given up some big weeks to Jameis Winston (30.5) and Matthew Stafford (28.2). The Rams rank 15th in Football Outsiders’ pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and just got back their two starting defensive ends in Robert Quinn and William Hayes last week. Newton’s projected ceiling of 34.3 points (per our Player Models) is always worth chasing in guaranteed prize pools, but Newton remains a bit risky for cash games with the Rams returning key defensive starters.
RB – Jonathan Stewart
Stewart has eclipsed 20-plus FanDuel points in back-to-back weeks, largely due to his scoring twice in each game. He’s been dominating the Panthers’ touches inside the 10-yard line over their past four games (per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report).
Unfortunately for Stewart, the Rams have been tough against the run, ranking eighth in run DVOA. They’ve allowed just one 100-yard rusher on the season (LeSean McCoy). If you’re rostering Stewart, you’re hoping for a touchdown, which is where 46.2 percent of his FD production has come from. The Rams have allowed the fifth-most trips inside the 5-yard line to opposing offenses, so Stewart does have a chance to get that TD.
RB – Fozzy Whittaker
Whitaker has just 11 total touches over the past three games and has been out-snapped by Mike Tolbert 40-30 during that span.
WR – Kelvin Benjamin
The Rams have allowed the fourth-most receptions to opposing wide receivers, yielding a +1.7 DK Plus/Minus to wideouts. The Rams have allowed four different WRs to hang 100-plus receiving yards on them, most notably Mike Evans, who is similar in size to Benjamin. Per our Matchups tool, Benjamin is likely to run a lot of his routes against cornerback Troy Hill, whom Pro Football Focus has ranked 114th (out of 118) in coverage. Benjamin has seen 28 targets over his past three games.
WR – Ted Ginn Jr.
Ginn is yet to have the big plays we saw from him in 2015. After tying for the league-lead with the most multi-touchdown games (four) last year, Ginn has yet to reach the end zone this season. He also has just one game with over 60 receiving yards. Averaging 4.6 targets per game, Ginn can likely be faded once again this week.
WR – Corey “Philly” Brown
Brown has 5.4 FD points over his past three games combined. It’s really Benjamin or bust with these Carolina wide receivers.
WR – Devin Funchess
On the one hand, he’s averaged five targets per game over the last two weeks. On the other hand, he has caught only 43.5 percent of his passes this season and probably sucks.
TE – Greg Olsen
This could be a bit of a sneaky spot for Olsen to crush value. The Rams are allowing 3.6 red-zone trips per game to opposing offenses (eighth most). The Panthers have the fourth-highest success rate inside the red zone. Carolina’s lack of strong receiving options leaves Olsen as one of Newton’s primary reads every time he drops back to pass (23.4 percent target market share), with Olsen currently leading the Panthers in receptions, targets, and receiving yards. His poor performance last week may have his ownership down a bit, but it really is an outlier:
Olsen has a FantasyLabs projected ownership on DK of just two to four percent. Playing at a position that’s inherently volatile, Olsen offers some security and upside, ranking second among all tight ends in median (15.4) and ceiling (20.3) projections. With his low anticipated ownership, he makes for a fantastic GPP target this week.
Los Angeles Rams
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Case Keenum
Keenum certainly hasn’t been good this year: He has 5.66 adjusted yards per pass attempt and a 3.0 percent interception rate — bottom-three marks in the league among starting QBs. And his Plus/Minus graph looks like this:
But — don’t leave me yet — but . . . look at that one green bar. It’s a beauty, and it came in Week 6 against the Detroit Lions. It came against the Lions, who currently rank dead last in pass DVOA. This week, he’ll face a Panthers team that ranks 27th in pass DVOA. You see where I’m going with this: It’s not sexy to roster Keenum. He has low ratings in most of our Pro Models and owns the third-lowest projected floor (4.6) among DK QBs. And I’m not recommending that you in fact roster Keenum. Rather, I’m merely planting the seed that perhaps this Rams offense won’t be completely awful this week.
RB – Todd Gurley
Let me rephrase that last sentence: Perhaps this Rams passing offense won’t be completely awful this week. The running game still likely will: The Panthers rank fifth against the run this year and Gurley has averaged a miserable 3.0 yards per carry in his sophomore campaign behind perhaps the worst offensive line in all of football. We preach opportunity for RBs here at FantasyLabs, and Gurley certainly has that in his favor:
He has owned 75.53 percent of the Rams’ rushes over the past four games as well as six rushes inside the 10-yard line. The Panthers have a funnel defense that is tough against the run and incredibly poor against the pass, which should facilitate the passing game, but let’s be serious: This is a Jeff Fisher-coached team. If there were ever a team to “establish the run” when it’s the worst idea possible, wouldn’t it be this team?
Unfortunately, that still doesn’t make Gurley especially intriguing, as he is highly inefficient. However, his volume does make him a candidate for guaranteed prize pools.
RB – Benny Cunningham
There was a thought for a second that Cunningham would take over some of the pass-catching responsibilities from Gurley upon his return. He has three targets and 19 yards in the last two games. That seems to be false.
WR – Tavon Austin
If you rostered Tavon all year and then gave up on him before last week’s outburst, I’m sorry. That’s truly one of the most tilting DFS things. Last week against a Giants defense that ranks top-10 against the pass (per DVOA), Tavon caught 10 of his 15 targets — yes, 15 targets — for 57 yards and a touchdown. And, yes, again, Tavon managed to turn 15 targets into only 57 yards. This is the Tavon dilemma: He will receive a ton of opportunity, but it’s incredibly hard to predict when that will turn into anything remotely tangible. It certainly could against slot corner Robert McClain, who has an awful 46.8 PFF coverage grade this year, but, again, this is Tavon. Who knows. At least he comes with a low $5,600 FD price tag and zero to one percent projected ownership.
WR – Kenny Britt
Austin leads the team in target share (24.31 percent) over the past four games; Britt is third on the team with 18.06 percent. However, Britt is first on the team with 32.68 percent of its Air Yards over the same time frame. Britt has received eight targets a piece in the last two games, and these are valuable targets for DFS purposes. Just two games ago against the poor Lions secondary, Britt caught seven of eight targets for 136 yards and two touchdowns. This Panthers secondary might be just as bad, and Britt should match up against Daryl Worley, who has a poor 64.7 PFF grade in coverage this year. Britt is certainly interesting in GPPs.
WR – Brian Quick
Quick’s recent are similar to Britt’s: He owns only 16.67 percent of the Rams’ targets but 29.98 percent of its Air Yards. Last week against the Giants, he received nine targets and turned those into 92 receiving yards. He is only $3,400 DK and $4,500 FD and comes with FantasyLabs ownership projections of zero to one percent. He’s worth a GPP dart given the matchup.
TE – Lance Kendricks
Don’t look now, but Kendricks has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last four games and has seen quite a bit of volume. He has 12 receptions on 17 targets over the last two weeks, and he is actually second on the team in target share (18.75 percent) over the past month. Carolina’s pass defense has been poor and that extends to TEs as well: The Panthers currently rank 28th against TEs, per DVOA. Kendricks boasts an 85 percent Bargain Rating and +3.7 Projected Plus/Minus on FD. He’s a decent punt play in tournaments.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
