The Week 9 NFL Dashboard
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Jets at Dolphins
Well rested after a bye week, the Dolphins are 3.5-point home favorites over the Jets this Sunday. Miami has an implied total of 23.75 points. The Jets, just 20.25.
New York Jets
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Ryan Fitzpatrick
Fitz’s post game comments two weeks ago in which he claimed that the coaching staff may no longer have faith in him could be accurate [unlike his throws]. Yes, I have zero problem claiming Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman’s joke from last week as my own. Recycled jokes may be the only good thing that comes from this game.
Fitz completed just 47.1 percent of his passes in Week 8, making him hard to consider as even a flyer in guaranteed prize pools. He also has a tough matchup this week against a Dolphins defense ranked 10th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). The Dolphins offer the slate’s sixth-least advantageous matchup in Opponent Plus/Minus. Fitzpatrick is the lowest-rated FanDuel QB in the Levitan Model, possessing the third-lowest Projected Plus/Minus (+0.77) and a floor of just six points.
RB – Matt Forte
Over the past two weeks, Forte has seen an average of 30.5 touches per game and also been heavily involved in the red zone, scoring four touchdowns over the past two weeks. He has been extremely dependent on volume, inefficiently averaging just 3.3 yards per carry over that same time period. If you are dead set on being contrarian, consider Forte on FD, where he boasts a 95 percent Bargain Rating. At just five to eight percent projected ownership, Forte has the touchdown upside to provide value in GPPs, but our Trends Tool suggests that running backs suffer when facing a defense coming off of a bye.
RB – Bilal Powell
Powell broke a 35-yard run for a touchdown in Week 8, again highlighting the fact that he has been more effective than Forte this season on a per-touch basis. It’s unknown how big of a role the newly-signed C.J. Spiller will have in the offense, but he will be rejoining coach Chan Gailey, who oversaw the best years of his career in Buffalo. The Jets’ backfield has a great matchup this Sunday against a Dolphins’ defense that has allowed 7.65 yards per play over the past 12 months — the fourth-highest mark in the league. Powell is still sixth in targets among RBs (4.6 per game), but the workload Forte received over the past two weeks would make it hard to trust Powell in cash games even if Spiller weren’t in the picture.
WR – Brandon Marshall
Marshall is an elite receiver getting a ton of opportunity in a bad offense. However, the volume is there. Marshall is seventh in the NFL in target share (27.1 percent). Per TJ Hernandez:
He rates as the fifth-highest FD WR in the Bales Model and is facing a Dolphins defense that has allowed a +1.7 Plus/Minus to WRs over the last 16 games. Marshall carries risk — his offense is very unstable — but he’s in consideration for GPPs at five to eight percent projected ownership with a 17.8-point ceiling and a 96 percent FD Bargain Rating. The Dolphins have struggled mightily versus opposing WR1s, ranking 27th in pass DVOA against them.
WR – Quincy Enunwa
Enunwa is now eighth in the league in yards after catch (4.1 per target) after breaking a long 57-yard catch in Week 8 and a 69-yard touchdown just two weeks ago. He’s firmly the No. 2 WR and has shown a lot of big-play upside. However, road underdog WRs comparable in price and projection perform just slightly above their salary-based expectations and have been very inconsistent:
WR – Robby Anderson
Anderson played on 85 percent of the snaps in Week 8 and had six targets against the Browns. He seems to be locked in as the No. 3 WR, but unfortunately that still isn’t an attractive role for the purposes of DFS. Anderson is a fringe GPP dart at best.
TE – Austin Seferian-Jenkins
ASJ (ankle) did not dress in Week 8. Not that it really matters. Fill-in Brandon Bostick had one target for four yards in a plus matchup.
Miami Dolphins
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Ryan Tannehill
I understand the temptation, I really do. The Jets have given up the most passing yards in the league this year and rank 31st in pass DVOA. It’s just so hard to get excited about this play after what Tannehill has done over the past four weeks:
Tannehill definitely falls into the not-so-good QB category lately, averaging 10.23 FD points over the past four weeks. He’s projected to be in two to four percent of Sunday Million lineups in Week 8, but he carries a ton of risk in all formats. He is currently the fourth-lowest rated QB in the Levitan Model.
RB – Jay Ajayi
This guy has 200 yards rushing each of the past two games, and almost no one is talking about him because he’s facing the Jets’ third-ranked rush DVOA. Ajayi has over 25 touches in each of the past two games, Arian Foster has retired, and we know that opportunity is everything for RBs. We also know that it is quite possible that matchups are overrated for home favored RBs. That said, Ajayi is not active in the passing game, and that is where the Jets can be most easily exploited by RBs. Ajayi isn’t David Johnson, one of the only RBs to have success against the Jets in 2016, but he clearly has upside in GPPs. He also has a 92 percent FD Bargain Rating.
WR – Jarvis Landry
He has the second-highest target market share in the league (31.4 percent), ninth-highest yards after catch (3.5), and an overwhelming lead in team market share of Air Yards (per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report). Slot receivers facing the Jets have performed above salary-based expectation this year:
Landry is the tenth-highest rated WR in our Cash Model on FD, where he holds a 96 percent Bargain Rating, the sixth-highest ceiling (19.8 points), and the fourth-highest floor (10 points) and Projected Plus/Minus (+4.02). Landry is the focal point of this Dolphins passing game and should continue to see massive target volume. He offers a nice target floor for cash games. We expect him to be a chalky option in Week 9, with 17-20 percent projected ownership.
WR – DeVante Parker
The Jets’ outside passing defense has been atrocious this season, struggling all year against deep passes. Just look at what Sammie Coates and Mike Wallace have done over the past two games:
Landry is soaking up the majority of the target volume, but Parker is second on the team in target market share at 20.00 percent. He carries risk in cash games, but his deep targets make him an intriguing GPP play in Week 9.
Parker (hamstring) is officially questionable for Week 9 but was a full participant in practice this week and is expected to play.
WR – Kenny Stills
Stills continues to have opportunities in three-wide sets and will battle for targets with Parker. Stills’ 18.6-yard average depth of target — the third-highest mark in the league through eight weeks — makes him a volatile player, but, like Parker, he has big-play GPP upside on account of the matchup.
TE – Dion Sims
Sims (concussion) is out for Week 9. Starting in his place will be MarQueis Gray.
TE – Marqueis Gray
He’s starting in Week 9, but that doesn’t mean he should start for you. Tannehill has never paid much attention to his tight ends, as he’s targeted the position on just 14 percent of his pass attempts over the past 12 months — the fifth-lowest mark in the league among all quarterbacks. There are likely much better punt plays on the board.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
