This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze the relevant players from the best NFL games of the week. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis by looking at the dynamics of expected game flow, pace, Vegas lines, and advanced analytics.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Over the past three seasons, the Cowboys have been 31st, 31st, and 30th in neutral pace, but they have actually sped things up in 2017, ranking only slightly below-average. Last year, with the additions of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys were the most run-oriented team in the league, ranking first in run/pass ratio and number of running plays. They remain top-five in 2017, but, with his six-game suspension standing, Zeke can’t return until the Cowboys face the Raiders on December 17th. The Cowboys have significant deficiencies on defense — they rank 30th and 19th in rush and pass DVOA, respectively — so it remains to be seen if they will look to deploy their slow-paced, run-heavy style with a committee featuring Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden.
Andy Reid’s offense has played at a bottom-five pace in three of his four years in Kansas City. Their 33.40 seconds per play in neutral situations this season is the slowest mark in the league (Football Outsiders). The Chiefs have yet to rank higher than 20th in pass attempts in any season under Reid but rank 13th so far in 2017. Alex Smith will be counted on to make short and efficient throws that put his athletic wide receivers, running backs, and tight end in position to make plays. That said, the Chiefs have the 14th-most rush attempts (35.4 per game) this year and have been in the top-half of the league in that regard in each of the last four years.
The Cowboys’ Super Bowl odds stand pat at +2,000 even after the Elliott “re-suspension,” and the Chiefs are currently +600 after their victory last week. This game’s over/under sits at 51.0 points — highest on the main slate — but the Chiefs’ implied total of 26.0 is ‘only’ fourth-highest.
The Cowboys’ defensive line is currently eighth in adjusted sack rate, and the Chiefs currently rank 19th in pass protection. On the other side of the ball, Kansas City could find it difficult to get to Dak, as this Dallas offensive line ranks fifth in adjusted sack rate. Per DVOA, neither defense ranks inside the top-20 overall, and both are slightly worse against the run than against the pass.
Dak has a fantasy points correlation value of 0.46 with Dez Bryant and a 0.58 ownership correlation. Adding Kareem Hunt could be unique from a roster construction standpoint and also wise given the Cowboys’ struggles to stop the run. Here are the correlation values for actual fantasy points versus the ownership values (based on positions):
The actual points correlation values are still positive with Dak and Hunt, but opposing RBs provide a much lower ownership correlation than an opponent’s WR1 (0.25), WR2 (0.21), or TE1 (0.21). After lineups lock, visit our DFS Contests Dashboard and use our Stack Seeker tool to identify the top contrarian stack of the week.
Dak Prescott, QB
A year removed from posting an uber-efficient 67.8 percent completion rate (fourth) and 104.9 passer rating (third) in his rookie season, Dak still cracks the top-10 in passer rating (96.6) but has regressed to 17th in completion rate (62.8 percent). Dak’s attempted 25 or fewer passes in each of his last two games, but it’s certainly possible the Cowboys rely more heavily on the pass without Elliott. The Chiefs have allowed the fourth-most passing yards and passing touchdowns this year, along with the ninth-most DraftKings PPG to quarterbacks.
Alfred Morris/Darren McFadden, RB
With Elliott suspended, Morris and McFadden will work as the Cowboys’ top-two running backs, with Rod Smith involved as well. The Cowboys haven’t confirmed Morris will be the lead back, but he averaged 5.3 yards per attempt in the preseason and has been active ahead of McFadden to this point. DraftKings has priced up both players, but, if you decided to attack this Chiefs’ 31st-ranked run defense, it may be wise to do so on FanDuel, where both players own 98 percent Bargain Ratings.
Dez Bryant, WR
Over the last five games, Dez owns a top-four target market share (31 percent) and market share of air yards (45 percent). That said, he ranks only 19th at the position in DraftKings PPG (13.4). He has yet to top 20 DraftKings points in any game this season, but he’s seen seven red zone targets over his last three games, and his price dropped $1,300 this week against a Chiefs team that ranks 29th against WR1s (Football Outsiders).
Alex Smith, QB
His league-leading 9.7 AY/A this season is a career-high; in fact, it’s 3.0 yards higher than his career-average. His quarterback rating on deep passes also leads the NFL, and Dallas ranks 26th at defending passes traveling 16 or more yards through the air (Football Outsiders).
Kareem Hunt, RB
Last week marked his first without 100 total yards, but, after receiving just nine carries in Week 6, Hunt has averaged 20 per game over his last two. He’s also received four targets per game. He has been incredibly efficient with 5.2 yards per attempt (Y/A) and 11.0 yards per reception (Y/R) — both marks are top-five this year at the position. The matchup this week sets up well for his dual-threat skill set, as the Cowboys are 30th in run DVOA and 20th at defending running backs in the passing game.
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Since they signed Drew Brees in 2006, the Saints have never finished outside the top-six in total yards, top-12 in points scored, top-10 in total plays, top-eight in yards per drive, top-10 in plays per drive, and top-12 in points per drive. They have also been top-five in pass volume 10 times in the Brees era. That said, so far this season the Saints have skewed further toward the run: Their 43.46 run play percentage is currently 13th-highest. They still play faster than average, but they have slowed things down significantly: Last year, they were second in neutral pace (Football Outsiders). In 2017, New Orleans has dropped to the 11th-fastest pace (29.70 seconds per play).
A Dirk Koetter-led Buccaneers team has never finished outside the top-10 in run/pass ratio; they’ve averaged the 11th-fastest neutral pace over the past two seasons. That said, through seven games to start the 2017 season, they have skewed much more toward the pass, running the second-fewest percentage of run plays in the league (34.38 percent). The defense is a mess, allowing the fourth-most total yards per game (386.4), but it could be part of the reason they’ve also picked up the pace even more, ranking as the third-fastest team in neutral situations (Football Outsiders).
New Orleans (-7) hosts Tampa Bay at the Coors Field of Fantasy Football. The over/under sits at 50.0 points — second-highest on the main slate — and the Saints are 5-2 ATS (+5.57 Spread Differential); the Bucs are 1-5-1 (-3.86). The Saints’ implied total of 28.5 trails only the Texans’ in the entire 15-game Thursday-to-Monday slate.
Per DVOA, the Saints’ fourth-ranked pass defense should funnel opposing teams toward the run (29th), where the Bucs rank a putrid 30th overall. Tampa Bay also struggles to rush the passer with the worst adjusted sack rate in the league, although it may not matter: The Saints rank second-best in pass protection (Football Outsiders).
The passing options on both sides of the ball will likely make for some chalky stacks, so the best way to differentiate may be through unique lineup construction and/or game stacks. Here are the correlation values (per our NFL Correlations page) for actual fantasy points versus the ownership values for a game stack with Brees (based on positions):
The ownership correlation between Brees, Mark Ingram, Michael Thomas, and Mike Evans could be lower than expected given their high prices. However, all of those players have very correlated outcomes in potentially one of the highest-scoring games of the week.
Drew Brees, QB
Brees is back inside the top-10 in passing yards after averaging 315.0 per game over the past two weeks against the Bears (10th in pass DVOA) and Packers (18th). He’s led the league in this category in seven of his 11 seasons with New Orleans. This week, Brees will face a Bucs secondary that has surrendered the fifth-most DraftKings PPG to the position. He trails only Deshaun Watson for the highest projected ceiling among all Week 9 quarterbacks.
Mark Ingram, RB
Opportunity is everything for running backs, and, since Adrian Peterson was traded, Ingram has averaged 21.6 rushing attempts and five targets per game. Naturally, his price on DraftKings has increased from $5,900 in Week 6 to $7,900 in Week 9, but he still may be a bargain relative to players receiving comparable volume.
Michael Thomas, WR
Despite some tough matchups to start the year, Thomas still owns a top-10 target share over his last five games. He is expected to run the majority of his routes against Ryan Smith, who owns a putrid 38.6 Pro Football Focus coverage grade.
Jameis Winston, QB
In a game with unfavorable weather conditions, Winston flopped against Carolina last week with zero touchdown passes and two interceptions. Things might not get better this week: He’s battling a sprained AC joint, and the Saints have allowed the 10th-fewest passing touchdowns this year (1.29 per game).
Mike Evans, WR
Evans’ target share is down to 23 percent over his past five games, and he gets a brutal matchup against a Saints secondary that ranks fourth in pass DVOA. Marshon Lattimore is PFF’s highest-rated cornerback this year, so Evans is likely out of cash consideration. That said, Evans is talented enough and receives enough volume to always be in consideration in tournaments.
Good luck, and be sure to read our positional breakdowns later in the week!
