The NFL DFS prime time slates have only two games but massive guaranteed prize pools. Also, they’re just plain fun. This week, here are the games offered in the slate:
That snippet is from our free NFL Vegas dashboard and is current as of Saturday night. Keep tabs on the dashboard for updates on the lines.
Quarterback
Adjusted Yards Per Attempt: 8.1, Russell Wilson
Even though Wilson has been the worst DFS asset at the QB position this season, his long-term stats are still by far the best of this prime time foursome. Wilson has the best Adj YPA, completion percentage (66 percent), touchdown rate (6.3), and fantasy points per opportunity (0.54) over the past year. The only stat in which he’s not ahead is fantasy points per opportunity over the past month (0.26). There’s no denying that he’s been incredibly poor lately (perhaps because of injury): He put up only 10.2 DraftKings points last week against the Saints in the Superdome. It doesn’t get much lower than that. But still . . . Wilson is the starting QB with by far the best long-term stats and the Seahawks are implied to score a slate-high 25.25 points. Maybe this is the week Wilson puts it together.
Red-Zone Opportunities, Last Year: 4.29, Derek Carr
The young MVP candidate will face his toughest test of the year in a prime time game against the Broncos. Because of his price — he’s the second-highest priced QB among the foursome and $100 less than Wilson on both sites — and also because of his tough matchup, he’s the lowest-rated QB for both DK and FanDuel in the Bales Player Model. And that’s fair: Denver ranks second both overall and against the pass, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). The Broncos have held QBs to 1.6 points under salary-based expectations on both sites over the past year. However, if you’re taking a contrarian QB, betting on a guy with upside like Carr — a guy who just threw for 513 yards and four touchdowns last week — isn’t a terrible idea. He’s the best QB of the group right now and he might bring the lowest ownership. That’s intriguing at least.
Running Back
Projected Plus/Minus (FD): +6.4, Devontae Booker
Booker’s price got bumped way up this week: He’s now $7,000 DK, compared to just $5,600 a week ago. However, that’s still not high enough considering his workload and matchup, as shown by his slate-high Projected Plus/Minus. Booker gets a Raiders defense that is easily the worst defense in this small slate, ranking 28th, 25th, and 25th in overall, pass, and rush DVOA on the year. Last week, Booker got 19 rush attempts — 76 percent of the team’s rushes — and six targets in the passing game. He should definitely get at least that volume again. He’s the highest-rated FD RB in the Bales Model.
Bargain Rating (DK): 82 percent, Latavius Murray
Somehow, Murray is priced at only $4,000 DK this week. He received only 11 rushes last week, but this is why market share stats are important: His 11 rushes easily led the team at 45.83 percent. Further, he received seven targets in the passing game — 12.07 percent of the targets. He is still a part of this offense and should get opportunities in this game. Denver is especially stout against the pass, ranking second in DVOA, but the Broncos are weaker against the run, ranking a middle-of-the-road 14th. Running backs against the Broncos have actually outperformed salary-based expectations in the past year by 0.9 DK points. Murray has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on DK (+5.2) and could be a sneaky option in this prime time slate if people avoid targeting players against the Broncos.
Wide Receiver
Red-Zone Opportunities, Last Month: 4, Demaryius Thomas
After temporarily abdicating his throne as Denver’s WR1, Thomas has regained it over the past month: He leads the Broncos in target market share (25.87 percent), and he leads the WR group in opportunities inside the 10-yard line with four. He’s seen 10 targets in each of the last three games and will now face an Oakland secondary that ranks 25th against the pass. Per our NFL Matchups tool, Thomas is set to run against CB Sean Smith, who has an impressive Pro Football Focus grade of 82.7 but is questionable to play. If he’s out or perhaps even limited, that will be a major upgrade for Thomas against an already awful defense. Thomas is the highest-rated DK WR in the Bales Model.
Yards Per Target, Last Year: 10.3, Doug Baldwin
I was tempted to write about Emmanuel Sanders, as he rates highly in an excellent matchup, or perhaps Amari Cooper, who is in a tough matchup but is an absolute stud and leads the WR group in target share at 26.95 percent. Nope — we’re going to discuss the very disappointing Baldwin instead. Like his quarterback, he’s been very poor this season and hasn’t scored double-digit FD points since five games ago against the 49ers. However, if you’re betting on Wilson in this slate to get going, it’s a good idea to bet on Baldwin as well, as they have historically gone hand-in-hand in that regard. Baldwin is currently the highest-rated FD WR in the Bales Model and has the fourth-highest projected ceiling at 16.9 points. He’s a solid leverage play in the large-field prime time GPPs given the other big-name WRs in the slate.
Tight End
Pro Trends (FD): 11, Jimmy Graham
Graham is clearly the class of the TE options and is easily the highest-rated of the projected starters on FD. After dominating for three straight weeks — he averaged six receptions and over 100 receiving yards per game — he’s come back down to earth a bit thanks to Wilson and the poor offense. Last week was particularly frustrating, as he caught only three of his five targets for 34 yards and zero touchdowns — a blah 4.9-point FD outing. However, Jimmy is still the top option in this offense: Per the Market Share Report, he leads the Seahawks in target share (23.70 percent) and Air Yards (28.63 percent). Graham is the only TE option with double-digit target upside and should be heavily owned in this slate.
Projected Plus/Minus (DK): +4.4, Charles Clay
It is actually Clay who is the highest-rated DK TE in the Bales Model, as his low $2,700 salary is quite a discount from Graham’s $5,700. The TE group outside of Graham is weak, but Clay is an interesting pivot down if you want to be contrarian at this spot. Over the past month, he’s actually owned the highest percentage of targets for the Bills at 20.72 percent. He struggled last game — he scored 2.6 DK points against the Patriots — but he’s seen at least five targets in each of his last five games: Volume isn’t an issue. The TE spot has always been a weakness for the Seahawks and that remains true this season: They rank fifth in pass DVOA but 26th versus TEs and 20th against passes in the middle of the field. He holds sneaky upside this week and should be low-owned thanks to Graham.
Good luck!
