Week 7’s wide receiver/cornerback matchups were highlighted by an electrifying return to relevance by Amari Cooper, lock-down efforts from Casey Hayward and rookie Marshon Lattimore, proof that A.J. Green and Larry Fitzgerald are in fact human, and the long-awaited first touchdown of the season from Julio Jones. Let’s break down this week’s notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
Blue Chips
Keenan Allen vs. Patriots Secondary
Allen hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1, but he’s still been the focal point of the Chargers’ passing offense. Overall, only Antonio Brown has more targets this season, and Allen is tied for fifth among all receivers with five targets inside the 10-yard line. Allen is locked in as the featured option for Philip Rivers, who has thrown multiple touchdowns in 16 of his last 23 starts dating back to the beginning of last season.
And then there’s the Patriots secondary. They’ve allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last three games but still rank among the bottom-five defenses in DVOA against the pass and No. 1 wide receivers specifically. The Patriots have been particularly vulnerable to slot receivers through seven weeks:
- Albert Wilson: 5 targets, 5-37-0
- Brandon Coleman: 6 tgts, 4-82-1
- Bruce Ellington: 7 tgts, 4-59-1
- Jeremy Kerley: 3 tgts, 2-62-1
- Mohamed Sanu: 10 tgts, 6-65-0
In terms of DVOA, the Patriots have been at their worst on passes down the middle of the field. They’ve been beaten by slot receivers of all shapes and sizes, and none as talented as Allen – and none with his workload. The potential return of starting nickel corner Eric Rowe (groin, questionable) doesn’t seem likely to solve the issue considering he’s PFF’s second-lowest graded cover corner out of 110 eligible defensive backs. Meanwhile, Rivers could be swayed to avoid the likes of Malcolm Butler, Stephon Gilmore (concussion, questionable), and even journeyman Johnson Bademosi, who are capable of competing with the Chargers’ outside receivers. Allen will face off against either Rowe or undrafted rookie Jonathan Jones, who is one of just five slot cornerbacks to allow over 2.0 yards per cover snap this season.
Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess vs. Buccaneers Secondary
Benjamin has been dealing with a knee injury that reportedly caused some internal concern, but he appears fine after playing 61 of 72 snaps last Sunday. Benjamin has found the end zone only once this season but remains the only wide receiver on the Panthers with a target inside the 10-yard line. He appears fully recovered from an ACL injury that sidelined him in 2015, as he’s one of just 13 receivers (minimum 20 targets) to average over 2.0 yards per route run.
In addition to Benjamin’s steady play, Funchess has broken out without Greg Olsen involved:
- Funchess with Olsen since 2015 (32 games): 4.06 targets, 1.88 receptions, 29.12 yards, 0.28 touchdowns, 6.47 DraftKings PPG
- Funchess without Olsen (5 games): 8.8 tgts, 5 rec, 51.6 yds, 0.6 TDs, 13.76 PPG
Funchess’ splits are even better considering most of his 4-68-0 line in Week 2 came after Olsen’s foot injury. While Christian McCaffrey has paced the Panthers with 59 targets, the team’s new-found inability to run the football — their average of 3.4 yards per rush is the fourth-lowest mark in the league — has resulted in Newton attempting 33-plus passes in three consecutive weeks after not reaching that threshold once in the team’s first four games.
Ultimately, the best thing the struggling Panthers could ask for is this Buccaneers defense. Although they’ve allowed less than 23 points in each of their three home games this season, this hasn’t stopped opposing wide receiver units from posting a +1.86 Plus/Minus and a 60 percent Consistency Rating in Tampa Bay (per our Trends tool). The trio of Brent Grimes, Vernon Hargreaves, and Robert McClain all stand 5’10” or shorter, and all rank outside of PFF’s top-70 cover corners. Benjamin (6’5″) and Funchess (6’4″) will look to do damage against the Buccaneers’ league-worst defense in pass DVOA through seven weeks.
A.J. Green vs. Colts Secondary
Green predictably struggled to crack the Steelers’ zone-heavy defense built on preventing big plays, as he posted a season-worst 3-41-0 line on six targets last Sunday. Next up is the Colts, who are probably the best possible rebound Green could ask for. Through seven weeks, they’ve allowed league-high marks in yards per attempt and 20-plus yard passes, while ranking among the bottom-four defenses in Plus/Minus, Consistency Rating, and Upside Rating allowed to wide receivers. The Colts’ 30th-ranked defense in pass DVOA has allowed 4.4 more points per game than any other team, and now they’re tasked with handling one of the most-gifted receivers in the game:
Green’s combination of speed, size, workload, and natural talent gives him a legitimate ceiling of 200-plus yards with multiple touchdowns that very few other receivers can offer. The Colts hardly seem qualified to contain him – and that’s with a healthy unit. Starters Rashaan Melvin (concussion, questionable), John Simon (stinger, doubtful), and Malik Hooker (ACL/MCL tear, out) are dealing with significant injuries and could miss Sunday’s game. The losses of Melvin and Hooker sting the most, as PFF’s No. 12 overall corner and No. 34 safety had flashed in an otherwise porous unit that is left without another corner ranked among PFF’s top-80 defensive backs. Green is the top-rated receiver on Sunday’s main slate in Adam Levitan’s Pro Model. Consider using our Lineup Builder to stack Green with Andy Dalton in tournaments.
Potential Fades
T.Y. Hilton vs. Bengals Secondary
Hilton has converted his 12 total targets into an underwhelming 3-38-0 line over the past two games. He also blamed the Colts’ 27-0 loss to the Jaguars on the offensive line. Hilton has a point, but unfortunately for him production doesn’t come easy as an undersized WR1 in the league’s 27th-ranked scoring offense. While he’s still the offense’s most-talented receiver, Hilton could struggle to stop his skid away from Lucas Oil Stadium:
- Hilton at home (44 games): 8.55 targets, 5.07 receptions, 82.39 yards, 0.41 touchdowns, 15.8 DraftKings PPG
- Hilton on the road Olsen (41 games): 7.83 tgts, 4.34 rec, 67.02 yds, 0.32 TDs, 13.03 PPG
Hilton has unsurprisingly also had poor splits without Andrew Luck under center, who won’t be rejoining the Colts anytime soon after suffering a setback in his shoulder recovery last week. His opponent won’t make matters easier, as Hilton should spend most of his time in the slot across from Darqueze Dennard, one of just 11 full-time slot corners to allow fewer than 1.0 yards per cover snap this season. Outside corners Dre Kirkpatrick and Adam Jones (shoulder, questionable) join Dennard in the sub-1.0 club, and it’s been hard to find anywhere to throw the ball against a Bengals defense ranking among the top-four units in yards per attempt, completion rate, and passing yards allowed per game.
Julio Jones vs. Morris Claiborne
It took a season-high 13 targets, but Jones finally found the end zone as part of a 9-99-1 line during the Falcons’ Sunday night loss to the Patriots. Still, the Falcons offense is averaging 12.5 fewer points per game than last year’s unit, and Matt Ryan has failed to eclipse 250 passing yards against two of the league’s bottom-six defenses in pass DVOA in consecutive weeks. Even Jones’ ‘breakout’ game didn’t come easy, as 4-36-1 of his production came during his final drive of the game with the Falcons down three scores.
Jones remains one of the league’s most-talented receivers and is capable of erupting in any given week, but he’s historically been the worst version of himself as a road favorite. Overall, Jones has averaged 16.3 DraftKings PPG with a -2.27 Plus/Minus and 36.4 percent Consistency Rating when favored away from Atlanta since 2014. Bucking this trend against Claiborne will be easier said than done, as he’s quietly been one of the league’s best shadow corners for the past two seasons when healthy. The pair faced off in 2015, with Claiborne holding Jones to four catches for 41 yards on eight targets into his coverage:
Claiborne has managed to make life very difficult for the likes of Brandin Cooks, Marqise Lee, and DeVante Parker this season, allowing a 69.7 QB Rating on passes into his coverage and just 0.97 yards per cover snap. A 35 percent chance of rain with winds gusting at 16 miles per hour certainly won’t help matters against a Jets defense that has allowed 3.0 fewer yards per pass attempt at home this season. Be sure to check out our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock to see if Jones ends up with reduced ownership.
Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin vs. Eagles Secondary
C.J. Beathard threw for just 235 yards and zero touchdowns during his first career start against the Cowboys last Sunday. He surprisingly spurned ex-college roommate George Kittle (two targets) in favor of Garcon and Goodwin, who were targeted seven and eight times, respectively. Both receivers are seemingly in a good spot against an Eagles defense allowing the fourth-most DraftKings PPG to opposing wide receivers since the beginning of last season – although the Eagles have funneled receiving production into the middle of the field in 2017. Overall, they’ve posted top-six marks in DVOA on passes to the left or right sideline compared to the second-worst mark in the league down the middle of the field.
Opposing offenses have attempted a league-high 289 pass attempts against the Eagles this season, an ode to their run defense as much as their penchant for playing with large leads. This comes with risk: Wide receivers who are double-digit road dogs have averaged a -1.18 Plus/Minus with a 27.2 percent Consistency Rating since 2014. The 49ers move at the fastest pace in the league and rank last in time of possession, while the Eagles move at a bottom-seven pace in the league and rank second in time of possession. Garcon and Goodwin will get volume, but, as their combined zero touchdowns this season can attest, life is tough on the league’s forth-worst offense in DVOA. The potential return of No. 1 cornerback Ronald Darby (ankle, questionable) wouldn’t make things any easier for the 49ers offense. Be sure to monitor our industry-leading News Feed, as well as our Injury Dashboard, to stay updated on Darby’s status.
Honorable Mentions
- Dez Bryant vs. Redskins Secondary: Bryant went for 7-102-0 and 5-72-0 in two matchups against Josh Norman (ribs, questionable) last season. The latter performance came with Norman mostly glued to Bryant wherever he lined up (except the slot), while the former occurred with Norman lining up strictly as the defense’s left cornerback – as he’s done for the entirety of this season. Bryant is one of just four receivers to average double-digit targets per game through seven weeks but faces a Redskins secondary that ranks among the top-four defenses in DraftKings PPG, Plus/Minus, and Consistency Rating allowed to wide receivers in 2017.
- Chris Hogan and Brandin Cooks vs. Chargers Secondary: Hogan leads the Patriots in red zone targets through seven weeks, while Cooks ranks among the top-two receivers in the league in air yards and average target distance on his way to emerging as the team’s go-to deep threat. Lock-down corner Casey Hayward leads the Chargers’ top-eight defense in pass DVOA, and he could see more of Cooks considering Hogan has spent half of his snaps in the slot this season. Both receivers should have plenty of scoring opportunities with the third-highest implied total in Week 8.
- Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson vs. Panthers Secondary: Evans could face shadow coverage from James Bradberry, who has the size at 6’1″ and 210 pounds to at least not get pushed around in his toughest test of the season. D-Jax is seeing seven-plus targets per game for the first time since 2013, and he’ll likely see a mix of Daryl Worley and Kevon Seymour, each of whom is allowing a QB rating over 110 on balls thrown into their coverage this season.
- Antonio Brown vs. Lions Secondary: Brown experiences his quarterback’s severe home/away splits, yet he still paces all receivers in DraftKings PPG on the road since 2014. He’s been particularly effective in domes but will be challenged by Darius Slay, who is allowing just 1.25 yards per cover snap through seven weeks. Slay has played effective shadow coverage against the likes of Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, and Odell Beckham Jr., but he now gets to deal with our generation’s closest thing to Jerry Rice (credit to Rotoworld’s Evan Silva, who appeared on this week’s Daily Fantasy Flex).
- Michael Thomas vs. Bears Secondary: The Bears defense has allowed 24-plus points on three occasions this season – all away from Chicago. While they rank 10th in DVOA against the pass, the Bears defense falls to 25th in DVOA against WR1s specifically. Thomas has eight-plus targets in all but one game this season and remains the offense’s featured red zone receiver. The Bears’ new-look ball-control offense hasn’t exactly kept opposing offenses off the field, as they’ve lost two of three time of possession battles with Mitch Trubisky under center. Long live the Coors Field of Fantasy Football.
- DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller vs. Seahawks Secondary: Fuller’s game-breaking speed has added a new element to the Texans offense, and they’ve cleared 33 points in all three games he’s been active this season. Still, he’s expected to spend most of his time across from Richard Sherman, while Nuk should see a lot of rookie Shaquill Griffin. The Legion of Boom presents a tough matchup to any passing offense, though they aren’t impenetrable: Eight different receivers have surpassed 20 DraftKings points against the Seahawks since the beginning of last season.
The Shadow Factor
Very few cornerbacks shadow a receiver for the entirety of a game due to various scheme factors from both the offense and defense. Still, there are candidates each week who could see a heavy dose of their snaps against a single corner, including:
- Mike Evans vs. James Bradberry
- Julio Jones vs. Morris Claiborne
- Dez Bryant vs. Josh Norman
- Brandin Cooks or Chris Hogan vs. Casey Hayward
- Antonio Brown vs. Darius Slay
