Week 8 takes two of the elite receivers off the board, as both Odell Beckham Jr. and Antonio Brown have bye weeks. Therefore, we need to identify plus matchups that should put other receivers into elite situations. Let’s break down this week’s notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
The Studs
Julio Jones vs. Packers Secondary
Julio moves around the formation and the Packers just lost another cornerback in Damarious Randall. It is difficult to pinpoint the exact matchup for Sunday, but none are particularly difficult: The Packers don’t have a single cornerback with a coverage grade higher than 72, per Pro Football Focus. According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average), Green Bay is allowing 11 catches and 104 yards to opposing WR1s — second-most in the NFL.
Julio has two games this season with less than 50 receiving yards and no touchdowns. One of those weeks he was dealing with an injury and the other was against Denver. He now has two straight games with over 130 receiving yards and is PFF’s highest-graded receiver this season. Julio has the second-highest projected ceiling of all wide receivers this week according to our DraftKings Player Models.
A.J. Green vs. Bashaud Breeland and Josh Norman
Over the past four weeks, this Redskins cornerback duo has played much better: They have not allowed a single wide receiver to go over 100 yards receiving in that span. Washington’s pass defense now ranks 12th, per DVOA. Context is important here, however: They have not faced an elite receiver since Odell Beckham, who put up a 7-121 line.
With the improved secondary play and Green set to face Norman on at least half of his routes, we should consider this a net downgrade. He could have some success against Breeland — he has a 41.1 coverage grade, per PFF — but it is also possible that Washington uses Norman in shadow coverage, as they did against Marvin Jones last week.
Regardless of matchup, Green should see volume: He has no less than eight targets in a game this season and boasts three games over 169 yards. He currently has the second-highest rating among WRs in Adam Levitan’s FanDuel and DraftKings Player Models.
Note: Norman is currently questionable for Week 8. Monitor our NFL News feed throughout the week for all updates.
Notable Upgrades
Mike Evans vs. Sean Smith
Per DVOA, the Raiders rank 28th against deep passes and have allowed the second-highest yards-per-reception rate (8.2) this year. Evans mostly operates down the field: He leads the league in Air Yards, per the Week 8 Market Share Report. Evans should run almost 50 percent of his routes at Sean Smith and should mostly avoid PFF’s fourth-best cornerback in David Amerson on the other side. There have been some huge receiver lines against Oakland this season: Julio Jones posted a 5-106-1 line, Tyrell Williams put up 5-117-1, Brandin Cooks had a 6-143-2 game, and even Marqise Lee went for 7-107-0.
With Vincent Jackson on the Injured Reserve, Evans yet again saw a massive amount of targets (13) in Week 7. He has now seen at least 11 targets in five straight games and is averaging one touchdown per week. His only game without a touchdown came against the Denver Broncos. Evans is currently the highest-rated receiver in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings and FanDuel Player Models.
T.Y. Hilton vs. Steven Nelson
Hilton runs over 50 percent of his routes from the slot, which means he will avoid Marcus Peters, PFF’s ninth-best CB. Instead, he will mostly face off against the 97th-graded Nelson. Hilton has also run 22 percent of his routes on the left side of the field, an area the Chiefs have struggled to defend: They rank 24th against the left side this season, per DVOA. Ultimately, Hilton should have a plus matchup on around 75 percent of his snaps.
Hilton has seen nine-plus targets in every game this year. He has scored a touchdown in four of his past five games and gone over 130 yards three times in the past five. He rates as a top-five WR on both FanDuel and DraftKings, per Adam Levitan’s Player Model.
Notable Downgrades
Alshon Jeffery vs. Xavier Rhodes
Alshon could see an increase in his target volume with Jay Cutler back at quarterback, but this is not the week to target him. The Vikings’ pass defense is allowing only 5.2 yards per reception, the stingiest mark in the NFL. They have also allowed the fewest passing yards this season. Rhodes has shadowed both Kelvin Benjamin and DeAndre Hopkins, holding them to a combined 56 receiving yards. Rhodes has shadowed Jeffery in the past and should again this week. Even at a season-low salary of $5,900 on DraftKings, Jeffery is a risky play this week.
Tyrell Williams vs. Aqib Talib
Talib continues to play at an elite level for the Broncos, grading as PFF’s second-overall cornerback on the year. This week, Williams should run over 40 percent of his routes on Talib’s side of the field. Last time the Chargers and Broncos faced off, Rivers focused on his tight ends and running backs and avoided the brutal wide receiver matchups. Williams has a low projected floor of only 7.2 DK points.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
