Monkey Knife Fight takes a new spin on daily fantasy, combining player props and parlays. With exciting contest structures, put your football knowledge to the test and pit player performances against one another.
Check out a few picks to consider in this exciting format for Week 8 with the help of our NFL Player Props Tool.
More or Less 2/2
Tom Brady Passing Yards (305.5) vs. Jameis Winston Passing Yards (225.5)
The Week 8 showdown between two NFC South rivals is shaping up as one of the more exciting games on the slate.
Tom Brady leads the Buccaneers’ high-powered offense to New Orleans in what looks to be a more difficult matchup against a New Orleans Saints defense ranked third in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. Opening at a 50.5-point total may signal the matchup has shootout potential, especially with a stacked receiving corps of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and potentially Rob Gronkowski left for Brady’s disposal.
Averaging the third-most plays per game at 71 and using a pass-first 66%/34% pass-to-run split, expect the Buccaneers to move the ball down the field regardless of matchup, placing trust in their future hall-of-fame quarterback. Dating back to last season, Brady has played in a matchup above a 50-point total nine times, reaching the 306 passing yard mark five times (per radar360).
Our models project Brady to pass for 291.1 yards, trending him toward the under against the stout Saints defense.
Jameis Winston also looks to have a difficult matchup, facing the seventh-ranked Buccaneers’ defense. The Saints prefer to run then pass, using a balanced 48%/52% pass-to-run split (According to the RotoViz Snap and Pace Tool), relying heavily on their all-purpose running back Alvin Kamara.
However, the Buccaneers rank fourth in rush DOVA, and as a four-point underdog, the Saints might be forced to abandon their run game in favor of a more pass-friendly approach. Winston is still inconsistent in the passing game, with a 58% competition percentage, which is fourth-worst among starting quarterbacks this season. This season, Winston has reached the 226 passing yard mark twice in six games.
We’re projecting Winston to throw for 222.5 passing yards, trending him also toward the under.
The Pick: Tom Brady Less 305.5 passing yards, Jameis Winston Less 225.5 passing yards
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Matt Ryan Passing Yards (280.5) vs. Sam Darnold Passing Yards (240.5)
After seven weeks, it appears the Falcons and Panthers have reversed roles in the NFC South.
Atlanta has clawed back to a 3-3 record, while the Panthers have lost four straight after starting the season with a 3-0 record.
Matt Ryan host a Carolina Panthers defense ranked ninth in pass DVOA and grades out at the 12-best coverage defense according to PFF, setting up for a more difficult challenge for the 14-year veteran. Ryan leads a Falcons’ offense averaging 70 plays per game as part of their pass-heavy 65%/35% pass-to-run play-calling scheme. With a modest 47-point total and the Falcons currently 3-point favorites, Atlanta may lean on the dynamic play abilities of Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson against a Panthers defense with a weak spot for stopping the run ranked 19th in rush DVOA. Dating back to last season, Ryan has reached the 281 passing-yard threshold 12 times.
We’re projecting Ryan to throw for 271.1 passing yards in Week 8, falling below the 281-passing yard mark. A risky move considered Ryan’s tendencies but may pay off considering the problematic matchup.
Carolina Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold started the season reinventing himself, throwing for more than 275 yards in the first four games of the season, with five touchdowns. However, he has fallen as of late, throwing for more than 200 yards once in the last three games, with two touchdowns. On paper, Atlanta’s matchup looks to be a prime position for Darnold to bounce back, facing a defense ranked 30th in DVOA. As three-point underdogs, Carolina will need to up their pace to match the quick 24.8-second per snap pace of the Falcons, increasing their passing cadence beyond the current 62% calling scheme.
At 61%, Darnold’s accuracy comes into question, despite the high-powered weapons of Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore, and we’re currently projecting Darnold to throw for 231.5 passing yards, falling short of the 241 passing yard mark.
The Pick: Matt Ryan Less 280.5 rushing yards, Sam Darnold Less 240.5 passing yards
