The Week 8 NFL Dashboard
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Cardinals at Panthers
The Panthers come off their bye week as three-point home favorites against the Cardinals. This game currently has a Vegas total of 47 points. The Panthers are currently implied for 25 points; the Cardinals are implied for 22.
Arizona Cardinals
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Carson Palmer
After setting high expectations last season, there’s no doubt that Palmer has been a disappointment so far in 2016:
In the Cardinals’ last five games, Palmer now has two touchdowns versus five interceptions. The good news is that Palmer will face Carolina’s funnel defense, which ranks sixth against the run in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) but 27th versus the pass. Palmer’s salary has also dropped by quite a bit, especially on FanDuel, where he is the sixth-highest rated QB in the Bales Model at $7,300. He should be nowhere near your cash games given his play this season — and his 5.0-point FD floor — but his 33.2-point FD projected ceiling suggests that some tournament exposure is warranted.
RB – David Johnson
On one hand, it makes sense to fade DJ and invest in the Arizona passing game because of Carolina’s funnel defense. On the other hand, just two weeks ago the Cardinals faced an even more extreme funnel defense — the Jets defense ranked sixth in rush DVOA and dead last in pass DVOA at the time — and the Cardinals still fed DJ: He finished with 111 rushing yards, 27 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. Last week, against the top-ranked Seahawks defense, DJ had 113 rush yards on 33 attempts and 58 receiving yards on 13 targets. We have enough data at this point to make the case that DJ is matchup-proof. He has the highest projected ceiling on both DK and FD and FantasyLabs ownership projections of 17 to 20 percent.
WR – Larry Fitzgerald
The way to beat Seattle is through the middle of the field and the Cardinals certainly tried last week: Fitz had 14 targets, although he managed to turn those into just nine receptions for 70 yards. The yardage and consistent scores haven’t been there for Fitz — or any Cardinals WR for that matter — but the volume has been: He’s gotten at least seven targets in every game this season. With John Brown so up and down and other WRs dealing with injury concerns, Fitz is once again the team leader in both target market share (24.36 percent) and market share of Air Yards (21.38 percent) over the last four weeks (per the Market Share Report). According to our Matchups tool, Fitz will line up in the slot against CB Robert McClain, who owns a poor 50.1 Pro Football Focus coverage grade. Non-DJ Cardinals are frustrating to roster, but Fitz does have GPP appeal this week.
WR – John Brown
JoBro has been up and down this season but looks to be healthier in Week 8. We know what he can do when healthy and utilized in the offense: In Weeks 3 and 4, he caught a combined 16 balls for 214 yards on 27 targets. Despite missing last week’s game, he’s still second on the team in Air Yards at 20.8 percent over the last month. He’s slated to face off this week against CB Daryl Worley, who is ranked 54th by PFF. Projected for just two to four percent ownership, Brown is a guy with a ton of upside for GPPs.
Brown (hamstring) was limited in practice this week but is officially questionable and expected to play.
WR – Michael Floyd
Floyd has actually played in each of the last four games and still is only fourth on the team in targets (12.18 percent) and third in Air Yards (16.93 percent) over that time frame. He’s been unable to surpass 65 receiving yards in any game this year. He is cheap ($4,100 DK, $5,300 FD) and has a nice matchup against PFF’s 65th-ranked CB in James Bradberry, but he’s just not an integral part of this offense. The Cardinals run everything through Johnson — who over the last month is second on the team with 18.59 percent of the targets, by the way — which limits the upside of the lower-tier receivers.
Floyd missed practice earlier in the week but returned to practice on Friday. He’s questionable to play.
WR – Jamarcus Nelson
With Brown out of the lineup in Week 7, Nelson got an expanded role and put up a decent game at minimum price: 3-84-0 and 10.3 DK points. While Brown is expected back, there’s a chance that Nelson could get some extra targets again if Floyd misses time. Even still, Nelson has limited upside.
Carolina Panthers
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Cam Newton
Cam is always in the discussion for rostering each week, especially when he’s coming off the bye and favored at home. He’s currently averaging 22.5 FD points per game, but he has had difficulty over the course of his career when playing against top-ten pass defenses:
Our Player Models aren’t particularly painting Newton in a very rosy light either, projecting him for just 19 FD points. Only Blaine Gabbert has eclipsed 19 points against the Cardinals so far this season. This Arizona defense has been stingy, allowing just five passing touchdowns on the season and the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Newton’s 13-16 percent FantasyLabs ownership projection leads all quarterbacks, but he’s a risky GPP play against Arizona’s QB-neutralizing defense.
RB – Jonathan Stewart
The Carolina offense leads the league in points per drive, but most of their points are coming from a far distance. They have only 50 plays run from inside their opponent’s 20-yard line (eighth-fewest) and 19 plays from the 10-yard line (sixth-fewest). And Arizona has limited opposing offenses to 36 (third-most) and 12 (most) plays from those distances. Those numbers aren’t great for Stewart, who has scored 82 percent of his career touchdowns from inside the red zone.
The Cardinals also boast a spectacular run defense that is holding RBs to a -0.8 FD Opponent Plus/Minus. They’ve allowed just one 100-yard rusher this year (LeSean McCoy) and the second-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Despite being minor home favorites, the Panthers aren’t likely to put Stewart in a position to have a lot of success against a defense that’s ranked top-ten in run DVOA.
RB – Fozzy Whittaker
While the Cardinals have shown an ability to shut down the run (3.45 yards per carry against), their linebackers have been somewhat exposed in pass coverage, giving up 31 receptions to running backs (16th). If Arizona jumps out to an early lead and forces Carolina into the hurry-up offense, Whittaker could see an uptick in volume.
WR – Kelvin Benjamin
Per our Matchups tool, Benjamin should see a good amount of Marcus Cooper and Patrick Peterson while running his routes on the outside. If Peterson doesn’t shadow Benjamin this week, Benjamin has the potential for a solid outing. Cooper has been downright abysmal, ranking as PFF’s 83rd CB. Outside of the weird one-target game against Minnesota, Benjamin has averaged over 10 targets per game and garnered over 22 percent of the collective targets, touchdowns, and receiving yards. Expectations for Benjamin should be tempered against Arizona and their fourth-ranked pass DVOA, but Benjamin is always in line for GPP consideration, given his touchdown history.
WR – Devin Funchess
Until we start seeing any semblance of consistency from Funchess, he’s difficult to roster in any format. He saw a season-high six targets in his last game, but his lack of consistent snaps prevents him from seeing the necessary volume to warrant roster consideration:
He has seven total receptions this season.
WR – Ted Ginn Jr.
We saw the chalk go off last week, but that isn’t always going to happen. Sometimes being contrarian — like rostering players of Ginn’s ilk — could be the difference between a solid finish and a bankroll-changing performance. Top-ten in average depth of target, Ginn is yet to take top off a defense this season. Arizona ranks towards the middle of the league in 30-yard pass plays given up this season. If the Cardinals continue to stuff the run, we could see Newton test the defense vertically via Ginn.
WR – Corey “Philly” Brown
Running 83 percent of his routes from the slot, Brown draws a tough matchup and will likely see a lot of Tyrann Mathieu in coverage. Brown has cleared double-digit fantasy points just one time so far this season.
TE – Greg Olsen
No TE currently has a higher market share of his team’s targets than Olsen’s 24.7 percent. Averaging ten targets per game, Olsen is seeing consistent volume that puts him in play despite Arizona’s elite effectiveness at eliminating opposing TE production. They’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points to date and rank top-five in pass DVOA against tight ends. However, this offense flows through Cam and Olsen, who has nine FD Pro Trends to go along with a FantasyLabs projected ownership of 13-16 percent.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
