Almost halfway through the 2021 NFL season, Week 8 gives us prime matchups featuring top offenses in ideal conditions.
Check out a few games to target in Week 8, and a few you might want to proceed with caution.
Also, don’t forget to check out our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models.
Games to Target
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Opening with a 50.5-point total, this matchup between the NFC South rivals looks to be a potential high-scoring affair.
Led by quarterback Tom Brady, the Buccaneers’ high-power offense looks to be running on all cylinders. According to PFF, the Buc ranks as the second-best offense, running the fourth-most plays, averaging 71 plays per game. With a future hall-of-fame quarterback under center and a receiving corps of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay skews toward a pass-heavy approach, using a 68%/32% pass-to-run play calling script.
Despite facing a tough New Orleans defense that ranks third in defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders, the Buccaneers should benefit from a clear weak spot in the Saints’ defense, which looks to be the passing game. The Saints rank a pedestrian 14th in defensive coverage, according to PFF. Keep an eye on the status of Brown and Gronk for Week 8. If both members of the receiving corps are still out, expect a more condensed target share to go toward Evans and Godwin.
Coming off a short week after a 13-10 win over the Seattle Seahawks, The New Orleans Saints look to keep the momentum going facing a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense ranked 16th in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. The second-slowest team in the league, calling a play every 29.5 seconds, quarterback Jameis Winston may be forced to pick up the pace, especially as 4.5-point underdogs.
Relying heavily on running back Alvin Kamara, the Saints skew more toward a run-first play-calling scheme, using a 46%/54% pass-to-run play-calling scheme. However, the run game may not lend itself to a Saints’ victory, with the Buccaneers ranked fifth in rush DVOA.
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers
The Week 8 battle between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers features two offenses that are ranked sixth and 12th, according to PFF.
Facing a Chargers defense ranked 19th according to Football Outsiders, rookie quarterback Mac Jones leads a Patriots offense that uses a more balanced approach to their play calling, with a 53%/47% pass-to-run split. Opening as 6-point underdogs, look for Jones to up the tempo and depend on a more pass-friendly game script to keep this game competitive. An interesting wrinkle in the play calling could be Damien Harris, who should see volume facing a Chargers defense ranked last in rush DVOA.
According to PFF, quarterback Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers grade out as the third-best offense and average the most plays per game, calling 68 plays according to the RotoViz Snaps and Pace tool. The Patriots rank 11th in DVOA but appear to have struggles in the passing game, ranking 16th in pass DVOA, which should lend itself to the Chargers receiving corps of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Jared Cook.
As one of the fastest teams in the league, averaging a play every 25.6 seconds, expect the Chargers to keep the foot on the gas and look for additional volume for Austin Ekeler if Los Angeles runs away with the game late.
Proceed with Caution
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
Opening at 38.5-points, the San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears matchup are the slate’s lowest total.
Both the 49ers and Bears play as one of the slowest-paced teams in the league, averaging 27.3 seconds and 26.8 seconds per snap, respectively.
Jimmy Garoppolo faces a tough matchup against Bears defense ranked seventh, according to Football Outsiders. As 3.5-point favorites, the 49ers may continue their balanced 57%/43% pass-to-run split and increase volume in the rushing game, which looks to be a weak spot for the stout Chicago defense, ranking 23rd in rush DVOA. Look for running Eli Mitchell to continue to see volume, seeing 17 or more rushing attempts in three of his first four games this year. As the 10th slowest-paced team in the league, look for the 49ers to implement a clock-killing approach if ahead late in the game.
Chicago’s offense, led by rookie quarterback Justin Fields faces a less-than-ideal matchup against a San Francisco Giants defense ranked 12th in DVOA. With a 57% completion rate, Fields is third-worst this season, only behind fellow rookies Zach Wilson and Trey Lance. According to PFF, the Bears rank 27th in offense, using a balanced slightly-pass skewed 59%/41% pass-to-run play-calling scheme. Look for the Bears to increase their passing volume, despite the inaccuracies from Field, signaling more volume for Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
This classic AFC North matchup looks to be a defensive showcase, with the Steelers and Browns ranked ninth and 13th in DVOA, respectively.
Despite a top-five graded offense, the Browns look to be without quarterback Baker Mayfield, who missed practice Monday, continuing to deal with a shoulder injury. Case Keenum is expected to take over under-center duties, and the Browns offense should see the return of lead rusher Nick Chubb, who should command the bulk of carries in the backfield, especially with Kareem Hunt on the injured reserve. Cleveland is the fifth-slowest team in the league, averaging a play every 28 seconds and uses a highly balanced 51%/49% pass-to-run play calling split. With a 42.5-point total and a banged-up offense, the Browns may have to get creative to put points on the board in a tough matchup.
The Steelers’ offense also faces a tough matchup against a Cleveland Defense. However, a weak spot appears to be the Browns’ ability to go against the pass, ranking 20th in pass DVOA. This should lend itself to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers’ pass-first approach, using an extremely skewed 66%/34% pass-to-run play calling script, the highest imbalance of passing plays in the league. Look for the Steelers receiving corps, returning from a Week 7 bye, to see additional volume, specifically wide receiver Diontae Johnson, who leads the Steelers with a 28% target share.
