The Vegas Report provides a quick snapshot of the year-to-date Vegas trends and their daily fantasy implications for the week’s slate of NFL games. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
We are nearing the midway point of the NFL season and now have seven weeks of data (minus the Redskins-Eagles game on Monday night). To understand more fully how teams have performed, I’ve collected all the point spreads and game totals for Weeks 1-7 and put them next to the production data so we can see how teams have done vis-à-vis Vegas to this point in the season.
Vegas Plus/Minus
I’ve created a Vegas Plus/Minus metric — similar to our proprietary daily fantasy Plus/Minus metric — that compares actual production with expected (or implied) production. For instance, the Arizona Cardinals (based on the over/unders and point spreads) were implied for an average of 22.89 points per game (PPG) in Weeks 1-7, but they scored only 17 PPG, resulting in a Vegas Plus/Minus of -5.89. Additionally, they failed to hit their Vegas-implied expectations in six of seven games, giving them an ‘implied’ record of 1-6 on the year.
Only two of the seven weeks have resulted in league-wide positive Vegas Plus/Minus values. On the whole, it has been a down first half of the season for the NFL.
Two teams this year have hit their implied total in only one game.
- Arizona Cardinals: 1-6, -5.89
- Cleveland Browns: 1-6, -4.14
By implied record, the Cardinals and Browns are the worst teams. By Vegas Plus/Minus, the worst team is the Falcons (2-4, -6.54). The Cardinals and Browns are dealing with uncertainty at quarterback: Carson Palmer (arm) just suffered an injury and could be out the rest of the season, and DeShone Kizer, Kevin Hogan, and Cody Kessler all look incompetent. As for the Falcons, they hired a guy with no NFL play-calling experience to replace the coordinator for one of the most productive offenses in NFL history. It’s not surprising that Steve Sarkisian’s system is struggling.
Two teams have managed to hit their implied total in every game but one.
- Detroit Lions: 5-1, +5.00
- Philadelphia Eagles: 5-1, +4.21
The Lions were on bye in Week 6 and the Eagles are playing on Monday Night Football.
The Lions have a 3-3 NFL record and in typical fashion are in the running for a wildcard spot. Even though people generally believe otherwise, Jim Caldwell is a competent coach. In his five years without Caldwell, Stafford averaged a 59.5 percent completion rate. In his three-plus years with him, he’s averaged a 64.3 percent. Although Detroit’s Vegas Plus/Minus is elevated thanks to a Week 6 game at the Coors Field of fantasy football, the high-scoring Lions have finished with fewer than 23 points just once this season.
The Eagles lead the NFC with a 5-1 record, and the continued development of second-year quarterback Carson Wentz is encouraging: 5.7 adjusted yards per attempts (AY/A) last year; 8.3 AY/A this year. With Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 offensive line entering the season, the Eagles appear to have staying power. They’re -4.5 home favorites on MNF against the Redskins and one win away from having a massive lead in the NFC East.
Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus
When thinking about game script, spreads, and over/unders, we should take into account more than just a team’s offensive performance relative to its implied total: We should also think about its defensive performance. This is where Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus adds value. Example: The Cardinals were implied to allow 22.68 PPG in Weeks 1-7, but their opponents scored 27.29 PPG, giving them a Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.61. (A negative number means that a team allows more points than its average implied total; a positive number, fewer points.)
Two teams this year have allowed their opponents to hit salary-based expectations in just one game.
- Minnesota Vikings: 6-1, +4.18
- Buffalo Bills: 5-1, +5.63
Both the Vikings and Bills have held opponents to bottom-five scoring marks this season and have Pro Bowl-caliber players at all levels of their defensive units. Even with subpar quarterback play from Case Keenum and Tyrod Taylor, the Vikings and Bills — both of which missed the playoffs last year — are slated for playoff slots right now.
The worst team in the league by opponent implied wins and Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus is the Indianapolis Colts (1-6, -7.93). Only the Cardinals (with their horrid Vegas Plus/Minus) failed to hit expectations against them. That their defense entered Week 7 ranked as high as 29th in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) is astounding. In any given week it’s hard to know exactly how a team will go off versus the Colts, but they should almost always be stacked against in tournaments. They’re last in the league with 31.71 PPG allowed.
Over/Under Differential
Offensive production within an NFL contest is often correlated across teams. As a result, many sharp DFS players stack games (instead of just teams) in guaranteed prize pools. To highlight teams that tend to play in games that hit or surpass the Vegas total, I’ve created an Over/Under Differential metric: The actual total of games minus their over/unders. Example: The Cardinals had an average Vegas total of 45.57 PPG in Weeks 1-7, but their games actually totaled 44.29 PPG. Thus, they have an Over/Under Differential of -1.29.
Entering Week 7, there were still two teams yet to hit the over. Naturally, they both hit it this last week.
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 1-6, -5.71
- Miami Dolphins: 1-5, -10.75
Although the Steelers have a 5-2 NFL record, their offense has been mediocre, ranking 17th with 21 PPG. Their defense, however, has been excellent, holding opposing teams to the league’s third-lowest total at 16.57 PPG. With an underperforming offense and staunch defense, the Steelers seem unlikely to participate in many high-scoring games. As for the Dolphins: It’s hard for a team to hit the over when it has the second-lowest Vegas Plus/Minus (-5.96) and third-highest Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus (-4.79). The Steelers and Dolphins are currently top-six in AFC playoff standings.
The team with the highest Over/Under Differential is the Houston Texans (+11.67), who entered their Week 7 bye on a four-game hot streak of at least 30 points. In Week 1 rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson took over at halftime, and then in Week 2 he made his first NFL start on the road on a short week against a tough Bengals defense. He predictably underperformed in those circumstances, but since Week 3 Watson has been perhaps the greatest NFL rookie in the history of the universe. Even with a defense missing J.J. Watt (knee) and Whitney Mercilus (pectoral) for the rest of the season, the Texans seem likely to do well as long as Watson continues to develop. To date Watson is the No. 1 fantasy quarterback and will be a strong option in cash games most weeks.
Spread Differential
The point spread is the go-to number for Vegas and DFS, as it is predictive of game script and outcome. As a result I’ve created a Spread Differential metric so we can see how teams have done on a PPG basis relative to the spread. Example: The Cardinals in Weeks 1-7 were -0.21 favorites on average, but this season their opponents have outscored them by 10.29 PPG. As a result, they have a league-worst -10.5 Spread Differential.
Given their Spread Differential and league-worst 1-6 record against the spread (ATS), the Cardinals are one of the biggest underperformers of the season.
Despite their 4-3 ATS record, the Jacksonville Jaguars lead the league with an +11.71 Spread Differential partially because of blowout victories against the Texans (29-7, Week 1), Ravens (44-7, Week 3), Steelers (30-9, Week 5), and Colts (27-0, Week 7). I said this last week, so I might as well say it again now: Three-touchdown wins will almost certainly be less frequent moving forward, but the Jaguars have a tough defense — they’re second with 15.71 PPG allowed and a +4.96 Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus — and they also have a run-focused ball-control offense that minimizes the negative play of ‘franchise’ quarterback Blake Bortles. They’re the type of team capable of hanging around in and stealing games.
Two teams are tied for the best ATS record through seven weeks.
- Kansas City Chiefs: 5-2, +4.57
- Chicago Bears: 5-2, +1.43
Based on their Spread Differentials, the Chiefs have been a much more convincing ATS team to this point. Given that rookie Mitchell Trubisky has two touchdowns on 24-of-48 passing in three appearances and all other Bears (namely the punter and second-string running back) in those games have two touchdowns on two pass attempts, the Chiefs seem likely to have more ATS success than the Bears for the rest of the season: #HotTaek.
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
