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Week 8 NFL Fantasy TE Breakdown: George Kittle, Viktor Krum

The Week 8 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Nov. 1, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models. While the Models are built for daily contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.

Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models

There are four tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), Ryan Hodge and I have constructed.

Here’s where they place within our Week 8 fantasy football rankings (as of Thursday evening).

  • George Kittle: No. 1 (PPR) | No. 1 (Half PPR) | No. 1 (Standard)
  • Darren Waller: No. 2 (PPR) | No. 2 (Half PPR) | No. 3 (Standard)
  • Hunter Henry: No. 6 (PPR) | No. 6 (Half PPR) | No. 6 (Standard)
  • Jonnu Smith: No. 7 (PPR) | No. 7 (Half PPR) | No. 7 (Standard)

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.

Odds as of Thursday evening and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

George Kittle: San Francisco 49ers (+3) at Seattle Seahawks (54 Over/Under)

Kittle missed Weeks 2-3 with a knee injury, but he has otherwise dominated this year.

  • Week 1 (vs. ARI): 9.3 PPR, 5.3 STD | 4-44-0, five targets | 1-9-0 rushing
  • Week 4 (vs. PHI): 40.1 PPR, 25.1 STD | 15-183-1, 15 targets | 1-8-0 rushing
  • Week 5 (vs. MIA): 8.4 PPR, 4.4 STD | 4-44-0, eight targets
  • Week 6 (vs. LAR): 23.9 PPR, 16.9 STD | 7-109-1, 10 targets
  • Week 7 (at NE): 10.5 PPR, 5.5 STD | 5-55-0, seven targets

Unsurprisingly, Kittle is No. 1 at the position with 18.4 PPR and 11.4 STD points per game.

The way Ron Weasley feels about Viktor Krum: That’s exactly the way I feel about Kittle, except Kittle is much sexier and dirtier than Krum and I’m far cooler and less magical than Weasley.

But basically the same. Kittle is Krum.

In NFL history, no tight end has racked up more receiving yardage in his first three seasons than Kittle. Here’s a list of the top six.

  1. George Kittle (2017-19, 45 games): 2,945 yards | 2019 All-Pro
  2. Mike Ditka (1961-63, 42 games): 2,774 yards | Hall-of-Famer
  3. Rob Gronkowski (2010-12, 43 games): 2,663 yards | Future Hall-of-Famer
  4. Jimmy Graham (2010-12, 46 games): 2,648 yards | Maybe Hall-of-Famer?
  5. Kellen Winslow Sr. (1979-81, 39 games): 2,620 yards | Hall-of-Famer
  6. Antonio Gates (2003-05, 45 games): 2,454 yards | Future Hall-of-Famer

*Insert here an obligatory statement about how we should adjust for era, et cetera, et cetera.*

You get the idea: Kittle is already among the best tight ends ever.

What he has done since his second-season breakout has been especially spectacular if you look at some of the more advanced statistics like yards per route (including playoffs, per Pro Football Focus).

  • 2020 (five games): 2.75 YPRR (3rd)
  • 2019 (17 games): 2.87 YPRR (1st)
  • 2018 (16 games): 2.82 YPRR (1st)

Since 2018, Kittle has been a fantasy TE1 in 71% of his regular-season games and worse than a TE2 in just two games (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

This season, Kittle is No. 1 at the position with a 0.59 WOPR and 99.2 air yards and yards after the catch (AirYAC) per game.

WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) is a stat created by Josh Hermsmeyer. It combines market shares of targets and air yards and is available at AirYards.com. 

AirYAC is a leading indicator of fantasy output. You can find it in the RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary. 

Dude ain’t no common beater.

For this week in particular, there are a couple of reasons to be bullish on Kittle.

First, No. 1 wide receiver Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is out. In his absence, Kittle could see even more targets than he usually does.

Second, Kittle has a good matchup against the Seahawks, who seem likely to be without All-Pro safety Jamal Adams (groin/illness) for a fourth straight game. In Adams’ absence, Cardinals tight end Dan Arnold was 2-57-0 receiving on three targets last week.

Dan. Arnold.

On top of that, perimeter cornerback Shaquill Griffin (concussion/hamstring) left Sunday Night Football early and is dealing with multiple injuries. He sat out Wednesday practice and seems unlikely to play this weekend. And slot corner Marquise Blair (knee, IR) is out for the year.

The Seahawks secondary could be without three Week 1 starters.

Edge: Kittle.

Since 2018, Kittle hasn’t had enormous success against the Seahawks, but he has done well enough.

  • Week 13, 2018 (at SEA): 13.0 PPR, 7.0 STD | 6-70-0, nine targets
  • Week 15, 2018 (vs. SEA): 8.1 PPR, 5.1 STD | 3-51-0, eight targets
  • Week 17, 2019 (at SEA): 16.3 PPR, 9.3 STD | 7-86-0, seven targets | 1-7-0 rushing

You can’t really look down on a guy with 50-plus yards in each game.

From a betting perspective, I’m going against the 49ers. Off a loss, Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is 23-12-4 against the spread (ATS) with a margin of +4.24 points, good for a 26.1% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).



You can bet on this game at DraftKings. Last week, the 49ers defense was without the supermajority of its starters and key contributors.

  • Edge rusher: Nick Bosa (knee, IR), Dee Ford (back, IR) and Ziggy Ansah (arm, IR)
  • Defensive tackle: Solomon Thomas (knee, IR)
  • Linebacker: Kwon Alexander (ankle)
  • Cornerback: Richard Sherman (calf, IR) and K’Waun Williams (knee/hip, IR)
  • Safety: Jaquiski Tartt (groin) and Jimmie Ward (quadricep)

That’s nine guys. NINE. And based on the Wednesday practice report, there’s a significant chance that not one of these guys will return to action on Sunday.

With all of these injuries, it’s not hard to see how the Seahawks could win, and if the 49ers trail most of the game, they could have a pass-heavy game script that funnels extra targets to Kittle.

A must-start top-three TE1 in season-long leagues, Kittle is an expensive but investable cash-game and tournament candidate in DFS. Kittle leads all tight ends in our Models with his median, ceiling and floor projections.

Kittle is the No. 1 tight end in the Hodge Model for FanDuel.

Darren Waller: Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) at Cleveland Browns (50.5 O/U)

There’s a lot to like about Waller. He’s No. 1 at the position with 16.1 expected fantasy points per game and a 28% target share.

With the exception of his Week 3 letdown against the tight end-stingy Patriots defense, Waller this year has looked every bit like the guy who led the Raiders last year with 90-1,145-3 receiving on 117 targets.

  • Week 1 (at CAR): 10.5 PPR, 4.5 STD | 6-45-0, eight targets
  • Week 2 (vs. NO): 28.5 PPR, 16.5 STD | 12-105-1, 16 targets
  • Week 3 (at NE): 2.9 PPR, 0.9 STD | 2-9-0, four targets
  • Week 4 (vs. BUF): 15.8 PPR, 6.8 STD | 9-88-0, 11 targets
  • Week 5 (at KC): 15.8 PPR, 10.8 STD | 5-48-1, seven targets
  • Week 7 (at TB): 17.0 PPR, 11.0 STD | 6-50-1, nine targets

What Waller has done since last year is remarkable.

Waller has been a fantasy TE1 in 59% of his games, and in only contest has he not been at least a TE2.

With Waller’s usage, he is almost destined to finish the season as a top-eight tight end, and that feels low given his AirYAC and how comparable it is to last year’s number, when his poor touchdown luck dragged down his overall fantasy scoring.

  • 2020 (six games): 15.4 PPR (3rd), 8.7 STD (6th) | 84.3 AirYAC (4th)
  • 2019 (16 games): 13.9 PPR (6th), 8.3 STD (8th) | 89.1 AirYAC (3rd)

Waller has a couple of factors in his favor for this week.

First, he has an above-average matchup. The Browns are without All-American rookie safety Grant Delpit (Achilles, IR), who suffered a season-ending injury in training camp. In his absence, tight ends with six-plus targets — the guys who are actual contributors in the passing game — have done well.

  • Mark Andrews (Week 1): 22.8 PPR, 17.8 STD | 5-58-2, six targets
  • C.J. Uzomah (Week 2): 14.2 PPR, 10.2 STD | 4-42-1, six targets
  • Drew Sample (Week 2): 11.5 PPR, 4.5 STD | 7-45-0, nine targets
  • Logan Thomas (Week 3): 7.1 PPR, 3.1 STD | 4-31-0, seven targets
  • Dalton Schultz (Week 4): 17.2 PPR, 13.2 STD | 4-72-1, eight targets
  • Trey Burton (Week 5): 8.3 PPR, 3.3 STD | 5-33-0, six targets
  • Drew Sample (Week 7): 10.2 PPR, 5.2 STD | 5-52-0, six targets

Not all of these are world-beating performances, but if a guy faces the Browns and gets targets he’s unlikely to be much worse than average. As for Waller, he’s gonna get targets, and he ain’t average.

Overall, the Browns have a bottom-quartile No. 25 pass-defense DVOA with a 17.8% mark (per Football Outsiders).

On top of that, Waller is on the positive side of his Vegas splits. As an underdog, he has had more targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns than as a favorite (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

In 12 losses, Waller has averaged 16.0 PPR and 9.8 STD points per game. In 10 wins, 12.3 and 6.8.

Waller is actually advantaged as an underdog and in defeat.

Waller is a top-three TE in season-long leagues and a strong option in all contest types for DFS given that he leads all tight ends with +3.54 and +2.87 Projected Plus/Minus values on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Waller is the No. 1 tight end in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner, Raybon, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high 10 Pro Trends.

Hunter Henry: Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Denver Broncos (44.5 O/U)

As of writing (Thursday evening), the status of this game is uncertain due to a positive COVID-19 test on the Chargers.

Be sure to monitor the situation as we head into the weekend.

This year, Henry has had a fairly meh-tacular campaign. The word “adequate” comes to mind.

  • Week 1 (at CIN): 12.3 PPR, 7.3 STD | 5-73-0, eight targets
  • Week 2 (vs. KC): 14.3 PPR, 8.3 STD | 6-83-0, eight targets
  • Week 3 (vs. CAR): 10.0 PPR, 5.0 STD | 5-50-0, seven targets
  • Week 4 (at TB): 5.9 PPR, 3.9 STD | 2-39-0, four targets
  • Week 5 (at NO): 12.3 PPR, 8.3 STD | 4-23-1, eight targets
  • Week 7 (vs. JAX): 5.3 PPR, 2.3 STD | 3-23-0, seven targets

His underlying numbers look good: Henry is Nos. 6 and 10 among tight ends with 76.2 AirYAC and 10.7 expected fantasy points per game.

And yet he’s Nos. 17 and  20 with 10.0 PPR and 5.6 STD points per game.

A couple of points.

  • The bad news: That’s not good.
  • The good news: He should improve.

Last year he was similarly Nos. 7 and 8 with 78.7 AirYAC and 10.6 expected fantasy points per game, and his production tracked his underlying data, as he ranked Nos. 8 and 10 with 12.7 PPR and 8.1 STD points per game.

By these numbers, Henry is a prime candidate for positive regression, so it’s not a surprise that he is the top tight end in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Week 8 Air Yards Buy-Low Model.

The production should come.

Henry is a solid mid-range TE1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 tight end in the Raybon Model for DraftKings.

Jonnu Smith: Tennessee Titans (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals, 53 O/U

Whenever I think of Smith in this matchup, Salt-N-Pepa’s “Push It” just starts playing in my head on repeat.

Tight end units against the Bengals are No. 2 in the league with 12.6 fantasy points per game on 42-480-6 receiving. The Bengals are the quintessence of a flow-chart defense.

Push it real good.

Smith has had a strong season. In Weeks 1-5, he was an All-Pro-like producer with 18-221-5 receiving on 27 targets in four games.

In Weeks 6-7, though, he was just 2-22-0 receiving on six targets, but I’m inclined to discount those numbers. He exited Week 6 early with an ankle injury, and although he played last week, he was limited to a 70% snap rate and 15 routes vs. his Weeks 1-5 marks of 83% and 22.5 per game.

Now that he is practicing in full for the entire week, I expect to see Smith get his pre-injury usage.

With 8.8 yards per target since 2018 and 6.8 targets per game this year in his four healthy contests, Smith has the opportunity to match his talent.

Among high-volume tight ends, only Kittle has more than Smith’s 2.15 yards per route this season.

In quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s 16 regular-season starts with the team, the over is 13-2-1 (66.9% ROI). You can bet on this game at FanDuel.



Points should be scored, and the Bengals are awfully accommodating to tight ends.

Smith is a mid-tier TE1 in season-long leagues and the top option in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner, SportsGeek, Hodge and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high 93% Bargain Rating.

Tight Ends With Week-Winning Upside

In this section, I highlight some tight ends I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (-19.5) vs. New York Jets (49 O/U): The Chiefs have a slate-high 34.25-point implied Vegas total. Kelce is No. 2 at the position with 92.6 AirYAC per game, and he makes a good stacking partner with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, given that he has a 0.76 correlation with his passers since 2014 (per our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool).

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (44.5 O/U): Top perimeter receiver Tim Patrick (concussion) exited Week 7 early and hasn’t returned to practice, so Fant could see extra volume this week. Fant (ankle) looked hobbled last game in his return from injury, but he still got a team-high seven targets, and for the season he is No. 5 among all tight ends with 11.2 expected fantasy points per game.

Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) at Baltimore Ravens (46.5 O/U): Overlooking his Week 1 letdown, Ebron has a workable average of six targets per game over his past five contests. Without strong safety Earl Thomas (released this offseason), the Ravens are now much weaker against tight ends, ranking No. 20 against the position with an 8.1% pass-defense DVOA. As moneyline underdogs, the Steelers under HC Mike Tomlin are an A-graded 29-26 (32.4% ROI).



You can bet on this game at William Hill. Ebron hit a season-high eight targets last week.

Trey Burton, Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Detroit Lions (50 O/U): Since his activation from IR, Burton is 11-107-1 receiving on 16 targets and 1-1-1 rushing in three games. Sadly, we live in a universe in which that usage and production conspire to make him intriguing.

Harrison Bryant, Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (50.5 O/U): No. 1 wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (knee, IR) is out and No. 1 tight end Austin Hooper (abdomen) seems unlikely to play as he recovers from his appendectomy, so that could mean more playing time and targets for the 2019 John Mackey Award winner. In Hooper’s absence last week, Bryant had his best NFL game to date with 4-56-2 receiving on five targets.

Albert Okwuegbunam, Denver Broncos (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (44.5 O/U): Even though Fant returned last week, Albert O. still saw significant albeit limited playing time. Over the past two weeks (his only games active), Okwuegbunam is Nos. 7 & 8 with a 21% target share and 10.8 expected fantasy points per game. His 8.1 yards per target is a strong mark for a rookie. He has real game-changing potential.

With his physical profile and draft capital, Okwuegbunam is most comparable to young Jimmy Graham.

Do yourself a favor: Learn how to pronounce his name. Oak-woo-AYE-boo-nom. There’s a chance you’ll be saying his name a lot over the next decade. Remember how much everyone struggled with the name “Gronkowski” in 2010? That’s where we are right now with Albert O.

“Okwuegbunam.”



Matthew Freedman is 702-562-27 (55.5%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: 49ers TE George Kittle
Photo credit: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

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The Week 8 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Nov. 1, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models. While the Models are built for daily contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.

Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models

There are four tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), Ryan Hodge and I have constructed.

Here’s where they place within our Week 8 fantasy football rankings (as of Thursday evening).

  • George Kittle: No. 1 (PPR) | No. 1 (Half PPR) | No. 1 (Standard)
  • Darren Waller: No. 2 (PPR) | No. 2 (Half PPR) | No. 3 (Standard)
  • Hunter Henry: No. 6 (PPR) | No. 6 (Half PPR) | No. 6 (Standard)
  • Jonnu Smith: No. 7 (PPR) | No. 7 (Half PPR) | No. 7 (Standard)

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.

Odds as of Thursday evening and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

George Kittle: San Francisco 49ers (+3) at Seattle Seahawks (54 Over/Under)

Kittle missed Weeks 2-3 with a knee injury, but he has otherwise dominated this year.

  • Week 1 (vs. ARI): 9.3 PPR, 5.3 STD | 4-44-0, five targets | 1-9-0 rushing
  • Week 4 (vs. PHI): 40.1 PPR, 25.1 STD | 15-183-1, 15 targets | 1-8-0 rushing
  • Week 5 (vs. MIA): 8.4 PPR, 4.4 STD | 4-44-0, eight targets
  • Week 6 (vs. LAR): 23.9 PPR, 16.9 STD | 7-109-1, 10 targets
  • Week 7 (at NE): 10.5 PPR, 5.5 STD | 5-55-0, seven targets

Unsurprisingly, Kittle is No. 1 at the position with 18.4 PPR and 11.4 STD points per game.

The way Ron Weasley feels about Viktor Krum: That’s exactly the way I feel about Kittle, except Kittle is much sexier and dirtier than Krum and I’m far cooler and less magical than Weasley.

But basically the same. Kittle is Krum.

In NFL history, no tight end has racked up more receiving yardage in his first three seasons than Kittle. Here’s a list of the top six.

  1. George Kittle (2017-19, 45 games): 2,945 yards | 2019 All-Pro
  2. Mike Ditka (1961-63, 42 games): 2,774 yards | Hall-of-Famer
  3. Rob Gronkowski (2010-12, 43 games): 2,663 yards | Future Hall-of-Famer
  4. Jimmy Graham (2010-12, 46 games): 2,648 yards | Maybe Hall-of-Famer?
  5. Kellen Winslow Sr. (1979-81, 39 games): 2,620 yards | Hall-of-Famer
  6. Antonio Gates (2003-05, 45 games): 2,454 yards | Future Hall-of-Famer

*Insert here an obligatory statement about how we should adjust for era, et cetera, et cetera.*

You get the idea: Kittle is already among the best tight ends ever.

What he has done since his second-season breakout has been especially spectacular if you look at some of the more advanced statistics like yards per route (including playoffs, per Pro Football Focus).

  • 2020 (five games): 2.75 YPRR (3rd)
  • 2019 (17 games): 2.87 YPRR (1st)
  • 2018 (16 games): 2.82 YPRR (1st)

Since 2018, Kittle has been a fantasy TE1 in 71% of his regular-season games and worse than a TE2 in just two games (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

This season, Kittle is No. 1 at the position with a 0.59 WOPR and 99.2 air yards and yards after the catch (AirYAC) per game.

WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) is a stat created by Josh Hermsmeyer. It combines market shares of targets and air yards and is available at AirYards.com. 

AirYAC is a leading indicator of fantasy output. You can find it in the RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary. 

Dude ain’t no common beater.

For this week in particular, there are a couple of reasons to be bullish on Kittle.

First, No. 1 wide receiver Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is out. In his absence, Kittle could see even more targets than he usually does.

Second, Kittle has a good matchup against the Seahawks, who seem likely to be without All-Pro safety Jamal Adams (groin/illness) for a fourth straight game. In Adams’ absence, Cardinals tight end Dan Arnold was 2-57-0 receiving on three targets last week.

Dan. Arnold.

On top of that, perimeter cornerback Shaquill Griffin (concussion/hamstring) left Sunday Night Football early and is dealing with multiple injuries. He sat out Wednesday practice and seems unlikely to play this weekend. And slot corner Marquise Blair (knee, IR) is out for the year.

The Seahawks secondary could be without three Week 1 starters.

Edge: Kittle.

Since 2018, Kittle hasn’t had enormous success against the Seahawks, but he has done well enough.

  • Week 13, 2018 (at SEA): 13.0 PPR, 7.0 STD | 6-70-0, nine targets
  • Week 15, 2018 (vs. SEA): 8.1 PPR, 5.1 STD | 3-51-0, eight targets
  • Week 17, 2019 (at SEA): 16.3 PPR, 9.3 STD | 7-86-0, seven targets | 1-7-0 rushing

You can’t really look down on a guy with 50-plus yards in each game.

From a betting perspective, I’m going against the 49ers. Off a loss, Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is 23-12-4 against the spread (ATS) with a margin of +4.24 points, good for a 26.1% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).



You can bet on this game at DraftKings. Last week, the 49ers defense was without the supermajority of its starters and key contributors.

  • Edge rusher: Nick Bosa (knee, IR), Dee Ford (back, IR) and Ziggy Ansah (arm, IR)
  • Defensive tackle: Solomon Thomas (knee, IR)
  • Linebacker: Kwon Alexander (ankle)
  • Cornerback: Richard Sherman (calf, IR) and K’Waun Williams (knee/hip, IR)
  • Safety: Jaquiski Tartt (groin) and Jimmie Ward (quadricep)

That’s nine guys. NINE. And based on the Wednesday practice report, there’s a significant chance that not one of these guys will return to action on Sunday.

With all of these injuries, it’s not hard to see how the Seahawks could win, and if the 49ers trail most of the game, they could have a pass-heavy game script that funnels extra targets to Kittle.

A must-start top-three TE1 in season-long leagues, Kittle is an expensive but investable cash-game and tournament candidate in DFS. Kittle leads all tight ends in our Models with his median, ceiling and floor projections.

Kittle is the No. 1 tight end in the Hodge Model for FanDuel.

Darren Waller: Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) at Cleveland Browns (50.5 O/U)

There’s a lot to like about Waller. He’s No. 1 at the position with 16.1 expected fantasy points per game and a 28% target share.

With the exception of his Week 3 letdown against the tight end-stingy Patriots defense, Waller this year has looked every bit like the guy who led the Raiders last year with 90-1,145-3 receiving on 117 targets.

  • Week 1 (at CAR): 10.5 PPR, 4.5 STD | 6-45-0, eight targets
  • Week 2 (vs. NO): 28.5 PPR, 16.5 STD | 12-105-1, 16 targets
  • Week 3 (at NE): 2.9 PPR, 0.9 STD | 2-9-0, four targets
  • Week 4 (vs. BUF): 15.8 PPR, 6.8 STD | 9-88-0, 11 targets
  • Week 5 (at KC): 15.8 PPR, 10.8 STD | 5-48-1, seven targets
  • Week 7 (at TB): 17.0 PPR, 11.0 STD | 6-50-1, nine targets

What Waller has done since last year is remarkable.

Waller has been a fantasy TE1 in 59% of his games, and in only contest has he not been at least a TE2.

With Waller’s usage, he is almost destined to finish the season as a top-eight tight end, and that feels low given his AirYAC and how comparable it is to last year’s number, when his poor touchdown luck dragged down his overall fantasy scoring.

  • 2020 (six games): 15.4 PPR (3rd), 8.7 STD (6th) | 84.3 AirYAC (4th)
  • 2019 (16 games): 13.9 PPR (6th), 8.3 STD (8th) | 89.1 AirYAC (3rd)

Waller has a couple of factors in his favor for this week.

First, he has an above-average matchup. The Browns are without All-American rookie safety Grant Delpit (Achilles, IR), who suffered a season-ending injury in training camp. In his absence, tight ends with six-plus targets — the guys who are actual contributors in the passing game — have done well.

  • Mark Andrews (Week 1): 22.8 PPR, 17.8 STD | 5-58-2, six targets
  • C.J. Uzomah (Week 2): 14.2 PPR, 10.2 STD | 4-42-1, six targets
  • Drew Sample (Week 2): 11.5 PPR, 4.5 STD | 7-45-0, nine targets
  • Logan Thomas (Week 3): 7.1 PPR, 3.1 STD | 4-31-0, seven targets
  • Dalton Schultz (Week 4): 17.2 PPR, 13.2 STD | 4-72-1, eight targets
  • Trey Burton (Week 5): 8.3 PPR, 3.3 STD | 5-33-0, six targets
  • Drew Sample (Week 7): 10.2 PPR, 5.2 STD | 5-52-0, six targets

Not all of these are world-beating performances, but if a guy faces the Browns and gets targets he’s unlikely to be much worse than average. As for Waller, he’s gonna get targets, and he ain’t average.

Overall, the Browns have a bottom-quartile No. 25 pass-defense DVOA with a 17.8% mark (per Football Outsiders).

On top of that, Waller is on the positive side of his Vegas splits. As an underdog, he has had more targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns than as a favorite (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

In 12 losses, Waller has averaged 16.0 PPR and 9.8 STD points per game. In 10 wins, 12.3 and 6.8.

Waller is actually advantaged as an underdog and in defeat.

Waller is a top-three TE in season-long leagues and a strong option in all contest types for DFS given that he leads all tight ends with +3.54 and +2.87 Projected Plus/Minus values on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Waller is the No. 1 tight end in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner, Raybon, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high 10 Pro Trends.

Hunter Henry: Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Denver Broncos (44.5 O/U)

As of writing (Thursday evening), the status of this game is uncertain due to a positive COVID-19 test on the Chargers.

Be sure to monitor the situation as we head into the weekend.

This year, Henry has had a fairly meh-tacular campaign. The word “adequate” comes to mind.

  • Week 1 (at CIN): 12.3 PPR, 7.3 STD | 5-73-0, eight targets
  • Week 2 (vs. KC): 14.3 PPR, 8.3 STD | 6-83-0, eight targets
  • Week 3 (vs. CAR): 10.0 PPR, 5.0 STD | 5-50-0, seven targets
  • Week 4 (at TB): 5.9 PPR, 3.9 STD | 2-39-0, four targets
  • Week 5 (at NO): 12.3 PPR, 8.3 STD | 4-23-1, eight targets
  • Week 7 (vs. JAX): 5.3 PPR, 2.3 STD | 3-23-0, seven targets

His underlying numbers look good: Henry is Nos. 6 and 10 among tight ends with 76.2 AirYAC and 10.7 expected fantasy points per game.

And yet he’s Nos. 17 and  20 with 10.0 PPR and 5.6 STD points per game.

A couple of points.

  • The bad news: That’s not good.
  • The good news: He should improve.

Last year he was similarly Nos. 7 and 8 with 78.7 AirYAC and 10.6 expected fantasy points per game, and his production tracked his underlying data, as he ranked Nos. 8 and 10 with 12.7 PPR and 8.1 STD points per game.

By these numbers, Henry is a prime candidate for positive regression, so it’s not a surprise that he is the top tight end in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Week 8 Air Yards Buy-Low Model.

The production should come.

Henry is a solid mid-range TE1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 tight end in the Raybon Model for DraftKings.

Jonnu Smith: Tennessee Titans (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals, 53 O/U

Whenever I think of Smith in this matchup, Salt-N-Pepa’s “Push It” just starts playing in my head on repeat.

Tight end units against the Bengals are No. 2 in the league with 12.6 fantasy points per game on 42-480-6 receiving. The Bengals are the quintessence of a flow-chart defense.

Push it real good.

Smith has had a strong season. In Weeks 1-5, he was an All-Pro-like producer with 18-221-5 receiving on 27 targets in four games.

In Weeks 6-7, though, he was just 2-22-0 receiving on six targets, but I’m inclined to discount those numbers. He exited Week 6 early with an ankle injury, and although he played last week, he was limited to a 70% snap rate and 15 routes vs. his Weeks 1-5 marks of 83% and 22.5 per game.

Now that he is practicing in full for the entire week, I expect to see Smith get his pre-injury usage.

With 8.8 yards per target since 2018 and 6.8 targets per game this year in his four healthy contests, Smith has the opportunity to match his talent.

Among high-volume tight ends, only Kittle has more than Smith’s 2.15 yards per route this season.

In quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s 16 regular-season starts with the team, the over is 13-2-1 (66.9% ROI). You can bet on this game at FanDuel.



Points should be scored, and the Bengals are awfully accommodating to tight ends.

Smith is a mid-tier TE1 in season-long leagues and the top option in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner, SportsGeek, Hodge and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high 93% Bargain Rating.

Tight Ends With Week-Winning Upside

In this section, I highlight some tight ends I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (-19.5) vs. New York Jets (49 O/U): The Chiefs have a slate-high 34.25-point implied Vegas total. Kelce is No. 2 at the position with 92.6 AirYAC per game, and he makes a good stacking partner with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, given that he has a 0.76 correlation with his passers since 2014 (per our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool).

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (44.5 O/U): Top perimeter receiver Tim Patrick (concussion) exited Week 7 early and hasn’t returned to practice, so Fant could see extra volume this week. Fant (ankle) looked hobbled last game in his return from injury, but he still got a team-high seven targets, and for the season he is No. 5 among all tight ends with 11.2 expected fantasy points per game.

Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) at Baltimore Ravens (46.5 O/U): Overlooking his Week 1 letdown, Ebron has a workable average of six targets per game over his past five contests. Without strong safety Earl Thomas (released this offseason), the Ravens are now much weaker against tight ends, ranking No. 20 against the position with an 8.1% pass-defense DVOA. As moneyline underdogs, the Steelers under HC Mike Tomlin are an A-graded 29-26 (32.4% ROI).



You can bet on this game at William Hill. Ebron hit a season-high eight targets last week.

Trey Burton, Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Detroit Lions (50 O/U): Since his activation from IR, Burton is 11-107-1 receiving on 16 targets and 1-1-1 rushing in three games. Sadly, we live in a universe in which that usage and production conspire to make him intriguing.

Harrison Bryant, Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (50.5 O/U): No. 1 wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (knee, IR) is out and No. 1 tight end Austin Hooper (abdomen) seems unlikely to play as he recovers from his appendectomy, so that could mean more playing time and targets for the 2019 John Mackey Award winner. In Hooper’s absence last week, Bryant had his best NFL game to date with 4-56-2 receiving on five targets.

Albert Okwuegbunam, Denver Broncos (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (44.5 O/U): Even though Fant returned last week, Albert O. still saw significant albeit limited playing time. Over the past two weeks (his only games active), Okwuegbunam is Nos. 7 & 8 with a 21% target share and 10.8 expected fantasy points per game. His 8.1 yards per target is a strong mark for a rookie. He has real game-changing potential.

With his physical profile and draft capital, Okwuegbunam is most comparable to young Jimmy Graham.

Do yourself a favor: Learn how to pronounce his name. Oak-woo-AYE-boo-nom. There’s a chance you’ll be saying his name a lot over the next decade. Remember how much everyone struggled with the name “Gronkowski” in 2010? That’s where we are right now with Albert O.

“Okwuegbunam.”



Matthew Freedman is 702-562-27 (55.5%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: 49ers TE George Kittle
Photo credit: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

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About the Author

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.