The NFL DFS prime time slates have only two games but massive guaranteed prize pools. Also, they’re just plain fun. This week, here are the games offered in the slate:
That snippet is from our free NFL Vegas dashboard and is current as of Saturday night. Keep tabs on the dashboard for updates on the lines.
Quarterback
Adjusted Yards Per Attempt: 8.2, Dak Prescott
It says a lot about both Dak and this slate of QBs that Dak is by far the best QB available: He leads the foursome in completion percentage, adjusted yards per pass attempt (AYPA), interception rate, sack rate, and pretty much any other metric available. Further, the Cowboys are currently implied to score 23.75 points despite playing an Eagles defense that through seven weeks ranks first overall in pass defense and second overall. Dak is the highest-rated QB in the Bales Model for both sites and boasts the highest-projected ceiling, floor, and Projected Plus/Minus. He’s just been a really good QB so far in his career:
This is obviously a tough matchup, but there’s a good chance Dak won’t ruin your lineups if you play him.
Opponent Plus/Minus (FD): +2.6, Sam Bradford
It was a prime time game this year when Bradford took over the starting QB job for the Vikings and put up a 22-286-2 line against the good Green Bay defense. Since then, he’s been consistent albeit not incredibly exciting: He threw his first interception of the season last week against the Eagles yet hasn’t hit 20 FD points in his five games. He has a very narrow range of outcomes and is ultimately a QB with a solid floor but low ceiling: He’s been pretty much the Lite version of Dak. The difference between the two this week is matchup: Dak has a brutal one against Philly, while Bradford gets a Chicago defense that ranks 21st in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and has given up 2.6 FD points above salary-based expectations to QBs over the last 12 months. Dak is the best QB in the slate, but Bradford could be the leverage play in tournaments given the matchup.
Running Back
Market Share of Rush Yards: 72.6 percent, Ezekiel Elliott
Per the Market Share Report, Elliott absolutely dominates the touches in the Dallas backfield: He leads the team with 67.6 percent of the rushes in the last month and 72.6 percent of the yards for the season — even though he’s a rookie.
As discussed above, the Eagles defense is really good. That said, they’re a bit weaker against the run: They rank first against the pass, per DVOA, and ‘only’ 13th against the run. Considering that Dallas loves to give Elliott the ball a ton anyway — he leads the team with seven rushes inside the 10-yard line — they’ll probably ride their talented rook Sunday night. He’s by far the most expensive RB on the board, but for good reason: He leads the entire slate with 13 FD Pro Trends.
Projected Plus/Minus (DK): +9.1, Matt Asiata
With Jerick McKinnon officially ruled out already for Monday night’s game against the Bears, it seems that the RB spots are pretty easy to fill for this prime time slate: It might be wise to eat chalk with Elliott and Asiata and be contrarian elsewhere. Asiata should dominate the Vikings backfield in McKinnon’s absence, and at just $3,500 on DK he’s the uber chalk in pretty much all slates this weekend — especially a two-game slate. He has a projected DK ceiling of 19.7 points and a slate-high Projected Plus/Minus of +9.1. He’ll face a Bears defense that ranks 20th against the run.
Wide Receiver
Red-Zone Opportunities, Last Year: 1.25, Cole Beasley
Because the RB spots should be incredibly chalky, let’s try to find some contrarian WRs. Beasley could be that guy: Dez Bryant is returning this week, which should hurt the value of Terrance Williams and collectively lower the ownership of the Cowboys pass catchers. However, it might not reduce Beasley’s targets: In a small six-game sample this season, Beasley has actually seen more targets per game with Dez than without him . . .
For better or for worse, he’s an integral part of this offense: In the past month, he owns a 19.6 percent target market share, second to only Jason Witten. Beasley has exceeded salary-based expectations on FD in every game this season. He could do it again at lower ownership this week.
Projected Ceiling (FD): 16.9, Alshon Jeffery
Alshon has definitely disappointed so far in 2016: He hasn’t scored more than 12.8 FD points in any of his seven games so far. However, he’s been trending up in this offense lately, as evidenced by his 11 and 13 targets over the past two weeks. Brief target hog Cameron Meredith saw only two targets last week and now the Bears will start Jay Cutler again on Monday night. At a minimum, the return of Cutler shouldn’t hurt Alshon . . .
. . . or prevent him John Fox and company from continuing the current two-week trend of peppering their talented WR with targets. What makes Alshon even more interesting is that he could perhaps be a little underowned in this small slate for several reasons: His recent play, Cutler’s return, and a matchup against a Vikings defense that ranks third against the pass this season. It’s definitely a risky spot, but getting the highest-projected WR at potentially a lower ownership level is at least intriguing in these large-field guaranteed prize pools.
Tight End
Yards Per Reception, Last Year: 11.6, Kyle Rudolph
Rudolph has exceeded salary-based expectations in all but one game this year and is easily the highest-rated TE in the Bales Model for this slate. He saw 11 targets last week against the stingy Eagles pass defense and this week will get a Bears defense that, per DVOA, ranks 20th against the pass and 19th against TEs. He is third among TEs in the league in target share over the past month (24.06 percent), ranking just behind studs Greg Olsen and Jimmy Graham. Further, Rudolph has seen three targets inside the 10-yard line over the last month and leads the four TEs with a 12.5-point FD projected ceiling. With the Minnesota backfield more banged up than usual, Bradford could elect to target his big TE more often this week.
Red-Zone Touchdowns Per Target, Last Year: 50 percent, Zach Miller
Miller has been an absolute beast in the red zone when given opportunities: He leads this TE foursome with 0.47 opportunities inside the 10-yard line per game over the past year and has converted those at a 50 percent clip. That’s especially impressive considering this group of TEs in the prime time slate is pretty loaded: Rudolph, Miller, Jason Witten, and Zach Ertz are all incredibly talented and are worthy of rostering. And given that Miller has the toughest matchup against the Vikings defense, he will probably be the lowest-owned guy in the bunch. Minnesota ranks 16th against passes in the middle of the field. If the Bears can somehow navigate to the red-zone, Miller is certainly a threat to catch a touchdown and swing some GPPs.
Good luck!
