Week 6’s wide receiver/cornerback matchups were highlighted by injury-induced letdowns by the Packers and Buccaneers, huge games from Antonio Brown and Larry Fitzgerald, as well as another week without a vintage Julio Jones or Amari Cooper performance. Let’s break down this week’s notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
Blue Chips
Michael Thomas vs. Packers Secondary
Thomas set career-low marks in receptions (three) and yards (11) during the Saints’ 52-38 win over the Lions. Cornerback Darius Slay played a great game, but the Lions’ zone-heavy scheme, along with just 31 pass attempts from Drew Brees, also attributed to Thomas’ quiet day. Still, Thomas is averaging more targets per game than last season and has had at least five catches and 87 yards in all three of his games against defenses ranked outside of the top-11 units in pass DVOA.
The Packers’ 19th-ranked defense certainly fits Thomas’ big-game criteria, and they’ve had trouble slowing down No. 1 receivers through six weeks:
- Adam Thielen: 13 targets, 9-97-0
- Dez Bryant: 8 tgts, 5-52-1
- A.J. Green: 13 tgts, 10-111-1
- Julio Jones: 9 tgts, 5-108-0
Overall, the Packers have allowed the most DraftKings points per game (PPG) to wide receivers since the beginning of last season, while ranking among the bottom-three defenses in Plus/Minus, Consistency Rating, and Upside Rating allowed to the position (per our Trends tool). Thomas is one of the only main Saints receivers in recent memory to not share his quarterback’s severe home/away splits, as he’s averaged the third-most DraftKings PPG on the road among all wide receivers since the beginning of last season. The Packers secondary has suffered an abundance of injuries, leaving four of their five starting cornerbacks either out or questionable for Sunday. Barring recoveries from Davon House (quad, questionable) and Kevin King (concussion, questionable), Thomas is expected to run most of his routes against Damarious Randall (PFF’s seventh-worst cornerback out of 114 qualified players) and 5’10” and 189-pound Josh Hawkins, who was undrafted in 2016 and will be making his second career start Sunday.
Dez Bryant vs. 49ers Secondary
The Cowboys will have Ezekiel Elliott running the football Sunday, making for a better Cowboys offense – and a better Bryant. The passing game has run through Dez all season long, as he’s one of just 10 receivers to average at least nine targets per game. While Bryant’s start to the season has justifiably received criticism, he’s still managed to score a touchdown or gain 95-plus yards in four of five games. The league’s leading wide receiver in touchdowns since entering the league in 2010, Bryant is tied with Jordy Nelson for first among all wide receivers with six targets inside the 10-yard line through six weeks.
Dubbed the league’s most cornerback-sensitive receiver by PFF’s Scott Barrett, Bryant has regularly taken advantage of overmatched corners throughout his career. This week he gets a 49ers secondary that doesn’t have a cornerback graded higher than 75th by PFF. Outside corners Dontae Johnson and Rashard Robinson are both at least 6’1″ and theoretically have the size to not get pushed around by Bryant, but they’ve contributed to the 49ers ranking among the five-worst defenses in pass DVOA to both the left and right side of the field this season. Bryant has lined up in the slot on just 27 percent of his snaps this season, so he should spend most of his afternoon on the outside attacking the 49ers secondary at their weakest spots.
Bryant’s season-high salary across the industry is a concern, but it might be warranted considering the Cowboys’ current high implied total of 26.25 points. He gets a 49ers defense that has allowed the second-highest Upside Rating to wide receivers since the beginning of last season.
Julio Jones vs. Patriots Secondary
Mount St. Julio seemed ready to erupt at home against the helpless Dolphins secondary last Sunday, but he was inexplicably targeted just seven times and posted a 6-72-0 line. Still, he appeared fully over his hip flexor injury, playing 79 percent of the offensive snaps and regularly fighting for extra yardage in an attempt to create a big play:
With head coach Dan Quinn telling the media he wasn’t satisfied with Jones’ targets, we get a squeaky wheel opportunity with the league’s most physically-gifted receiver taking on the league’s worst defense in pass DVOA. Only the Buccaneers have allowed more DraftKings PPG and a higher Plus/Minus to receivers than the Patriots this season, and they’ve already allowed eight receivers to gain at least 50 yards and score a touchdown. Now they’ll have to slow down Jones, who ranks third among full-time receivers in yards per route run this season and third among all receivers in DraftKings PPG on the road since 2014.
Malcolm Butler has shadowed Robby Anderson and DeSean Jackson over the past two weeks, allowing respective stat lines of 4-76-0 and 5-106-0. The Patriots bracketed Jones all over the field in the Super Bowl and ‘held’ him to 87 yards and four receptions on four targets. With uncertainty surrounding the statuses of Stephon Gilmore (concussion, questionable) and Eric Rowe (groin, questionable), Jones has as good a chance as he’ll get to finally break out against a banged-up version of the league’s worst defense in yards allowed per pass attempt this season.
Potential Fades
Larry Fitzgerald vs. Rams Secondary
Fitzgerald continues to age gracefully and has already gone for 30-plus DraftKings points twice this season. Still, he’s scored all three of his touchdowns at home, continuing his recent trend of balling out at the University of Phoenix Stadium and struggling elsewhere:
- Fitzgerald at home since 2014 (27 games): 9.15 targets, 6.44 receptions, 75.19 yards, 0.44 touchdowns, 17.11 DraftKings PPG
- Fitz on the road (25 games): 8.6 tgts, 5.92 rec, 58.48 yds, 0.32 TDs, 13.89 PPG
Of course, he’ll take on the Rams in London (not Los Angeles), and Fitzgerald has the workload to be a factor regardless of matchup thanks to his 165-target pace and 12 looks inside the 20-yard line. Still, this Rams secondary represents the first top-10 defense in pass DVOA the Cardinals have seen since the Lions in Week 1. Fitzgerald should mostly line up against slot corner Nickell Robey-Coleman, who is just 5’8″ and weighs 165 pounds but is tied with Chris Harris Jr. for the fourth-fewest yards allowed per cover snap among full-time slot cornerbacks. Trumaine Johnson awaits on the outside, and Johnson has the size to match up with Fitzgerald at 6’2″ and 208 pounds. An investment in Fitzgerald will cost $7,300 on DraftKings this week, the highest his salary has been since November 2016.
A.J. Green vs. Steelers Secondary
After a slow start to the season, Green has 27 targets over his past three games and has averaged a 7.3-121-1 line since the team switched to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. Green has averaged a 7.6-118.8-0.6 line in his last five games against the Steelers but now takes on a unit with one of his self-proclaimed toughest cornerbacks to face in Joe Haden. The loss of Tyler Eifert (back, IR) and potential return of speedster John Ross (knee, questionable) bodes well for Green’s red zone targets and room to operate in the middle of the field.
Still, the larger obstacle for Green this week isn’t an individual corner; rather, it is the Steelers’ whole secondary, which emphasizes limiting big plays above all else. Per PFF, the Steelers have run zone coverage on a league-high 89.3 percent of their snaps this season. They rank among the top-five defenses in fewest 20-yard passes, yards per attempt, and pass DVOA through six weeks. Nobody has managed to surpass 225 passing yards against the Steelers, and they demonstrated the ability to thwart any big-play threat in their toughest test yet during last week’s victory in Kansas City. Zero receivers have managed to surpass 20 DraftKings points against the Steelers, and Green’s greatness could have a tough time shining through against a defense that has allowed fewer yards per attempt at Heinz Field compared to on the road during every season since 2009.
Demaryius Thomas vs. Chargers Secondary
The absence of Emmanuel Sanders (ankle, out) will seemingly lead to an abundance of targets for Thomas, but the quality of those targets is in question considering the statuses of Trevor Siemian and Casey Hayward. Siemian will suit up Sunday, but he’s dealing with a minor sprained left shoulder injury that is believed to be similar to the sprained left shoulder he suffered in 2016. Last season Siemian averaged 8.16 yards per attempt in his 101 pass attempts prior to spraining his left shoulder and just 6.69 yards per attempt in his 10 games after. Thomas averaged 17.55 DraftKings PPG with a healthy Siemian and 13.67 PPG without.
While some teams might change the way they defend the Broncos without Sanders, Thomas figures to see his usual heavy dosage of Hayward, who has won this battle since joining the Chargers last season:
- 10 targets, 5-35-0
- 10 targets, 5-79-0
- 8 targets, 5-67-0
Only Odell Beckham Jr. has managed to gain over 50 yards and score a touchdown against Hayward this season, and Trevor Williams – the seventh-best full-time corner in yards allowed per cover snap – doesn’t allow much relief on the other side of the field. Overall, the Chargers have allowed fewer than 250 passing yards in every game this season and rank among the top-four units in Plus/Minus and Consistency Rating allowed to wide receivers since the beginning of 2016.
Honorable Mentions
- Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams vs. Saints Secondary: Nelson has averaged 2.4 fewer DraftKings PPG in eight games without Aaron Rodgers since 2011, but his 5.1-74.9-0.5 line in those games is far from a tragedy. The Vikings chose to have Xavier Rhodes shadow Adams last week, and while Nelson’s current four-year low in targets per game is concerning, he could benefit from a similar choice from the Saints if Marshon Lattimore (PFF’s No. 4 overall cornerback) spends the bulk of his time across from Adams.
- Antonio Brown vs. Bengals Secondary: Brown has failed to surpass 100 receiving yards in four consecutive games against the Bengals and has just one touchdown over that span. Still, the NFL’s leader in receptions, yards, and targets is averaging a league-high 27.81 DraftKings PPG at Heinz Field since 2014 and gets a Bengals defense that could be without starting outside cornerbacks Adam Jones (back, questionable) and Dre Kirkpatrick (shoulder, questionable).
- Devante Parker vs. Jets Secondary: Parker is questionable for Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. Not being 100 percent is bad news against a likely shadow date with Morris Claiborne, who has the size at 5’11” and 190 pounds to give Parker problems in addition to his general great play this season. Brandin Cooks hung a 6-93-0 line on Clairborne, but Marqise Lee and Amari Cooper each failed to score a touchdown or surpass 35 yards. Parker posted a 8-76-1 line on the Jets in Week 3, although 4-52-1 of that line came during the Dolphins’ final drive, down 20-0, with Claiborne out of the game.
- Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson vs. Bills Secondary: The Bills have the third-best defense in pass DVOA, with the eighth- and fourth-best units against WR1s and WR2s, respectively. Still, Green’s 7-189-1 performance in Week 5 showed that rookie Tre’Davious White (PFF’s No. 5 overall corner) and E.J. Gaines (allowing the ninth-fewest yards per cover snap among all full-time corners) aren’t immune to big games from a top-tier receiver. Evans and D-Jax have been targeted at least eight and six times during each game this season, but a limited Jameis Winston (shoulder, questionable) could lower the ceiling of the entire offense.
- Rishard Matthews and Eric Decker vs. Browns Secondary: Matthews has posted a 4-58.8-0.25 line on seven targets per game without Corey Davis (hamstring, out). Still, Matthews faces a tough matchup against Jason McCourty, who has regularly shadowed this season and held DeAndre Hopkins to a 2-19-1 line last week. The slot is manned by Briean Boddy-Calhoun (has allowed the fewest yards per cover snap among 72 full-time corners), but Decker should be first in line to exploit Jamar Taylor – the third-worst full-time corner in yards allowed per cover snap this season. The spot also sets up nicely for Delanie Walker (the second-highest rated tight end in Adam Levitan’s Pro Model), who has averaged 6.5 targets per game in Davis’ absence and gets the third-worst defense in DraftKings points allowed above salary-based expectations to tight ends over the past 12 months.
- T.Y. Hilton vs. Jaguars Secondary: Hilton runs 41 percent of his routes from the slot, so he should be able to avoid dominant outside corners A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey for portions of the game. While slot corner Aaron Colvin ranks outside of PFF’s top-50 corners this season, he’s helped hold the likes of Cooper Kupp, Jeremy Maclin, and Juju Smith-Schuster to an average 2.3-33.7-0 line this season.
The Shadow Factor
Very few cornerbacks shadow a receiver for the entirety of a game due to various scheme factors from both the offense and defense. Still, there are candidates each week who could see a heavy dose of their snaps against a single corner, including:
- Jordy Nelson or Davante Adams vs. Marshon Lattimore
- Mike Wallace vs. Xavier Rhodes
- DeVante Parker vs. Morris Claiborne
- Sammy Watkins vs. Patrick Peterson
- Rishard Matthews vs. Jason McCourty
- Demaryius Thomas vs. Casey Hayward
- Julio Jones vs. Malcolm Butler
