Week 6 was another interesting week that included notable upgrades due to injury. With Trumaine Johnson sidelined, the Rams secondary gave up touchdowns to all of the Lions’ starting wide receivers. Golden Tate’s performance is a reminder of how important it is to react quickly to secondary changes. On that note, let’s break down this week’s notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
The Studs
Antonio Brown vs. Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan
Brown gets to face off against the 25th-ranked passing defense, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average), but he will do it without Ben Roethlisberger. Brown should run the majority of his routes against Butler and Ryan; both rank outside of the top-25 graded cornerbacks this year, per Pro Football Focus.
While this would normally be an upgrade for Brown, he is stuck dealing with Landry Jones at quarterback. Brown has been much less successful with quarterbacks not named Roethlisberger:
Unfortunately, due to the late news, he is still priced as if Big Ben is playing this weekend.
Julio Jones vs. Chargers Secondary
Julio moves around the formation and the Chargers are still experimenting with their cornerbacks. Therefore, it is difficult to pinpoint the exact matchup for Sunday. As long as Brandon Flowers remains sidelined, the Chargers will deploy Casey Hayward, Craig Mager, and Steve Williams. Against this very cornerback group, Amari Cooper caught six passes for 138 yards in Week 5. None of these cornerbacks should be considered a problem for Julio.
Julio has two games this season with less than 50 receiving yards and no touchdowns. One of those weeks he was dealing with an injury and the other was against Denver. Looking beyond those, he has three games with over 100 receiving yards and a touchdown; he’s scored in four of six games this year. Julio has the highest-projected ceiling of all wide receivers according to our DraftKings Player Models this week.
A.J. Green vs. Browns Secondary
In Week 6, the Browns started Jamar Taylor and Briean Boddy-Calhoun on the outside. In nickel packages, they moved Taylor into the slot and Tracy Howard took over on the outside. Both Boddy-Calhoun and Howard have sub-72 PFF coverage grades. Taylor has played well this season, but he is only one season removed from being a target for DFS players. He received a PFF grade below 50 in the three seasons prior to this year. DVOA ranks Cleveland 30th against the pass and 23rd against WR1s. Over the past four weeks, Kendall Wright, Chris Hogan, and Jarvis Landry have all cleared 100 yards against this Browns secondary.
The downside with Green is that he has topped 100 receiving yards only twice this season. In those games, however, he has cleared 150 yards both times. Volume is no issue for Green, as he has now seen 10-plus targets in four of his six games and no less than eight in a single game this season. He ranks third in the entire league in targets currently. Green rates as a top-five receiver in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings and FanDuel Player Models.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Troy Hill and E.J. Gaines
After reviving Golden Tate from the dead, Hill and Gaines now get to face off against OBJ this weekend. With Trumaine Johnson nursing a high ankle sprain, Lamarcus Joyner is the only viable cornerback for the Rams, but he mostly plays at the nickel. Luckily, Beckham runs only 12 percent of his routes from the slot. Hill grades out as PFF’s 112th-ranked corner and Gaines is 85th. Neither have any chance of slowing down Beckham this weekend.
The concern for Beckham is that Eli has struggled against the blitz this season. Against the blitz, he has completed 53 percent of passes and thrown four interceptions and only two touchdowns on 60 attempts. If the Rams defensive line is at full strength, he could struggle. Pay close attention to Robert Quinn’s status; he is currently questionable for Week 7 and has missed the last two games.
Beckham has not seen less than eight targets in a game this season. He should get eight to 12 opportunities against the worst outside corner duo in football. OBJ has a much lower floor than the other elite wide receivers, but he’s an excellent GPP play because of this advantageous matchup this weekend.
Notable Upgrades
Mike Evans vs. Tramaine Brock
Per DVOA, the 49ers are giving up the most production to WR1s in the NFL. They also rank dead last against deep passes; as Scott Barrett of PFF has noted, Mike Evans is leading the league in target yardage (targets times average depth of target).
Further, Vincent Jackson is headed to the IR, which could give Evans even more opportunity this weekend. Evans has the sixth-most targets in the NFL, which is especially impressive considering he’s already had his bye week. He should be very chalky: He has FantasyLabs projected ownership of 21 to 25 percent on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Mike Wallace vs. Marcus Williams and Darrelle Revis
The Jets’ outside passing defense has been atrocious this season; they rank dead last against the pass, per DVOA. In Week 6, Sammie Coates exploded with six catches for 139 yards and two touchdowns. The Jets have struggled all year against deep passes. Wallace could take advantage; he is averaging 14.8 yards per reception.
With Steve Smith sidelined or potentially hobbled, Wallace should see extra targets from Joe Flacco. He has now seen nine-plus targets for three straight weeks. Wallace is definitely a boom-or-bust option and comes with only two to four percent FantasyLabs projected ownership on both sites.
Steve Smith has not practiced yet this week; he is currently questionable for Week 7.
Notable Downgrades
Jarvis Landry vs. Nickell Robey-Coleman
It has been one of the most surprising cornerback stories this season, but Robey has been a shutdown slot corner after being someone to target last season. This year, he has been the best nickel cornerback outside of Denver’s Chris Harris Jr. Per PFF, opposing quarterbacks have a 19.1 QB rating when targeting Robey — the lowest mark among active cornerbacks this year. While Landry should continue to see massive target volume, this is certainly a tough matchup.
Will Fuller vs. Aqib Talib
Fuller is set to return this week after missing Week 6 with a hamstring injury. Unfortunately, he now draws a matchup against Denver’s Talib; Fuller should run more than 50 percent of his routes on his side of the field. Talib is currently ranked as PFF’s third-best cornerback this season and has graded positively his entire career. Fuller has a projected floor of 5.3 FD points against a Denver passing defense that has allowed a poor -1.9 Plus/Minus to opposing wide receivers over the last 12 months.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
