Monkey Knife Fight takes a new spin on daily fantasy, combining player props and parlays. With exciting contest structures, put your football knowledge to the test and pit player performances against one another.
Check out a few picks to consider in this exciting format for Week 7 with the help of our NFL Player Props Tool.
More or Less 2/2
Derek Carr Passing Yards (275.5) vs. Jalen Hurts Passing Yards (250.5)
Currently one of the highest totals on the slate at 48.5-points, the Week 7 matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Las Vegas Raiders looks to be a high-scoring affair.
Jalen Hurts and Derek Carr lead their respective offenses against two mediocre defenses at best at stopping the pass. According to Football Outsiders, the Eagles and Raiders rank 12th and 17th in pass DVOA, respectively.
Carr leads a pass-heavy offense, using a 64%/36% pass-to-run split to methodically move the ball down the field, calling a play at a more league-average pace of 26.4 seconds. While Carr can undoubtedly put up 300+ passing-yard performances at any given moment, a weak spot in the eight-year veteran’s play looks to be his efficiency. Carr is completing his passes at a 64.2% rate, which is the 12th-lowest among starting quarterbacks. Dating back to last season, Carr has reached the 276-passing yard threshold 12 times but might have some trouble against a better Philadelphia Eagles defense against the pass than the run.
Las Vegas appears to have a very condensed receiving corps, funneling most of the production through the air toward tight end Darren Waller. In six games this season, Waller, who leads the Raiders with a 24% target share, has seen five or more targets in each game and looks to be a preferred weapon in the red zone, seeing seven targets.
Our models project Carr to throw for 266.5 yards, trending him toward the under against the Eagles.
The Eagles prefer a more pass-heavy approach to their play calling, using a 64%/36% pass-to-run split, according to the RotoViz Pace and Snap tool, calling a play at a lightning-fast 23.4-seconds per snap. As a dual-threat option in the offense, Hurts will look to his receiving corps of DeVonta Smith, Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert to help him move the ball the field in addition to his rushing ability.
However, Hurts has had issues with efficiency, completing only 62% of his passes, which is the seventh-lowest among active quarterbacks this season. Dating back to last season, Hurts has only reached the 251 passing yard mark five times. We’re projecting Hurts to throw for 236.5 yards, well below the 250.5-receiving yard mark.
The Pick: Derek Carr Less 275.5 passing yards, Jalen Hurts Less 250.5 passing yards
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Derrick Henry Rushing Yards (129.5) vs. Darrel Williams Rushing Yards (62.5)
The Week 7 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans has been the talk of the industry this week, given the extremely-high 57.5-point total, highlighting two high-powered offenses against weak defenses.
Derrick Henry seems unstoppable and looks to have a prime matchup against a Chiefs defense ranked second-worst in DVOA. Last week, facing the top-ranked Buffalo Bills defense, Henry rushed for 143 yards on 20 carries, averaging 7.15 yards per carry and three touchdowns. Dating back to last season, Henry has reached the 130 rushing yard mark nine times.
It seems to be a dangerous move to take anything less than a slate-breaking performance from Henry. However, the Titans may be forced to increase their balanced 54%/46% pass-to-run play-calling scheme in favor of a more pass-heavy approach as 4.5-point underdogs against a high-powered Chiefs offense that can score at will. We’re projecting Henry to rush for 115 yards, trending toward the under in this must-watch game.
Kansas City Chiefs running back Darrel Williams has emerged as the rusher for the Chiefs, taking advantage of Clyde Edward-Helaire landing on the IR. Taking over starting duties in the backfield, Williams rushed for 62 yards on 21 attempts with two touchdowns against a Washington Football Team defense ranked 29th in DVOA. Williams should see similar output against a Tennessee Titans defense ranked 28th in DVOA.
A downside, however, looks to be the Chiefs’ tendency to prefer a more pass-heavy approach, calling a 63%/37% pass-to-run play-calling scheme, which may leave Williams little production behind Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Mecole Hardman.
Our models project Williams to rush for 61 yards, barely trending him toward the under.
The Pick: Derrick Henry Less 129.5 rushing yards, Darrel Williams Less 62.5 passing yards
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Matthew Stafford Passing Yards (290.5) vs. Jared Goff Passing Yards (260.5)
Two quarterbacks square off against their former teams in an interesting matchup, with Matthew Stafford leading the Los Angeles Rams against Jared Goff and the winless Detroit Lions.
Since arriving in Los Angeles this year, Stafford has had a resurgent season, throwing for 1,838 yards and 16 touchdowns, completing 69% of his passes. Through six weeks, Stafford is third in touchdown passes and fourth in passing yards. Dating back to last season, Stafford has reached the 276-passing yard mark 12 times.
The 13-year veteran benefits immensely from a receiving corps of Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee and is in an ideal matchup against a Lions defense ranked 27th in DVOA.
A word of caution: As a 16-point favorite, this Week 7 matchup comes with extreme blowout potential, which might signal the Rams may rely on running back Darrell Henderson to kill the clock earlier than expected. Our models project Stafford to throw for 291.5 passing yards, well above the 276-yard threshold.
After a 338-passing yard performance, it looks like quarterback Jared Goff cannot get this Detroit Lions offense moving. Goff has thrown for 1,505 yards and seven touchdowns through six games this year but has only completed 66% of his passes, putting him among the league’s worst. Dating back to last season, Goff has reached the 261 passing yard threshold 10 times, eight of which were from last season as a member of the Los Angeles Rams.
This Week 7 matchup is less-than-ideal for Goff, facing a stout Rams defense that ranks fourth in DVOA, despite Detroit’s tendency to implement a pass-heavy 66%/34% pass-to-run split and up-tempo 24.7 seconds per snap pace.
With the Rams likely to jump ahead, Goff may be forced to play catch-up but will likely be forced into bad decisions. We’re projecting Goff to throw for 246.5 yards this week, which trends him toward the under.
The Pick: Matthew Stafford More 275.5 passing yards, Jared Goff Less 260.5 passing yards
