The Week 7 NFL Dashboard
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Ravens at Jets
Baltimore makes their way back to MetLife Stadium again this weekend, where they opened as a one-point dog against the Jets. The game currently sits at a pick ’em with a 40.5-point total; both teams are implied to score 20.25 points.
Baltimore Ravens
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Joe Flacco
The Ravens’ offensive coordinator change hasn’t seemed to help Flacco very much. He’s completed only 54 percent of his 48 passes for 307 yards and no touchdowns. Unfortunately, Flacco’s top target in Steve Smith was sidelined with an ankle injury and is currently questionable for Week 7 as well. Flacco now has only one game with more than one passing touchdown and two games with none. Flacco ranks as Pro Football Focus’ 19th-best quarterback this season.
Fortunately for Flacco, he gets to face off against a Jets passing defense that ranks 32nd (dead last) against the pass, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average). The Jets are allowing 290 passing yards per game, the fifth-most in the NFL. They have allowed three quarterbacks to throw for multiple touchdown passes this season. Flacco has a low projected floor of 5.9 FD points but has GPP-winning upside in this matchup.
Flacco (shoulder) is officially questionable for Week 7 but is expected to play.
RB – Terrance West
After Trestman was fired for abandoning the run in Week 5, West exploded in Week 6, compiling 123 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. As the clear lead back, West managed 27 touches and was the only player on the Ravens to have a strong fantasy output on the day.
This week, West draws a tough matchup against DVOA’s fifth-ranked rushing defense. The Jets are allowing only 85.5 yards per game and 3.4 yards per attempt. While West wasn’t very involved in the passing game to start the season, it was encouraging to see him haul in four of his targets for 36 yards last week. The Jets are allowing seven catches and 37.8 yards to RBs, per Football Outsiders.
It is difficult to confidently analyze this matchup; the Jets allowed three touchdowns to David Johnson, but that could say more about DJ than the Jets. West projects to have only two to four percent ownership this week. He’s a better value on DK; he has an 87 percent Bargain Rating there and rates as a top-10 option in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings Player Model.
RB – Kenneth Dixon
Dixon was yet again West’s “backup” in Week 6; he played only 12 percent of the snaps and managed three touches for 12 yards.
WR – Steve Smith
Smith did not play in Week 6 and is officially doubtful for Week 7.
WR – Mike Wallace
Wallace operated as the WR1 last week and saw nine targets. However, he struggled to make much happen with those opportunities against Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, catching only four passes for 97 yards. The Jets’ outside passing defense has been atrocious this season. In Week 6, Sammie Coates exploded with six catches for 139 yards and two touchdowns. The Jets have struggled all year against deep passes. Wallace could take advantage; he is averaging 14.8 yards per reception. He projects for only two to four percent FantasyLabs projected ownership on both sites.
WR – Breshad Perriman
With Smith on the sideline, Perriman saw eight targets but caught only three of them for 48 yards. The majority of that yardage came on a 41-yard reception early in the first quarter. Perhaps most importantly, he was out-snapped by Kamar Aiken.
WR – Kamar Aiken
Aiken assumed the slot role that was vacated by Smith last week; he played on 78 percent of the snaps and saw six targets. Aiken was the most efficient of the Ravens receivers, catching four of six targets for 64 yards. Aiken is priced at $3,700 on DK this week and will match up against PFF’s 91st-graded cornerback, Buster Skrine. The Jets have allowed a +2.4 Plus/Minus to opposing WRs over their last 16 games.
Aiken (thigh) is listed as questionable but it expected to play.
TE – Dennis Pitta
Pitta also saw increased usage without Smith; he received 10 targets, his second-highest mark of the season. He caught six of them but managed to turn those catches into only 36 receiving yards. This is a better matchup, however: Pitta has six DraftKings Pro Trends this week and has the sixth-highest projected ceiling on DK.
New York Jets
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Geno Smith
This tweet has nothing to do with fantasy, but it does have everything to do with why Brandon Marshall is the GOAT.
Geno in cash? It’s a scary thought given his low 5.4-point projected floor on FD, but he is interesting considering the Ravens are fifth in the league against the run but 32nd against the pass, per DVOA. Smith comes in as the fourth-highest rated QB in our FD Cash Model; he’s the $5,000 minimum and boasts a 98 percent Bargain Rating there.
RB – Matt Forte
Forte was limited in practice Wednesday with a knee injury but is fully expected to play against the Ravens’ top-ranked rushing defense, per Football Outsiders. He was shut down last week, rushing for just 19 yards on nine carries and was out-snapped 21 to 39 by Bilal Powell. What is even more concerning is that Forte has zero touches inside the 10-yard line in the past four weeks after averaging a league-high six red-zone carries in the first two weeks of the season, along with an 80 percent market share from inside the five-yard line. Forte has been losing passing-down work to Powell, who has averaged 6.75 targets per game over the past four weeks compared to just three targets per game for Forte. Neither Jets running back is a cash option against a Ravens defense that has given up the third-fewest FD points per game (14.4) to the running back position in 2016.
RB – Bilal Powell
Baltimore ranks No. 1 in rushing DVOA (per Football Outsiders) and has held opposing running backs to 1.43 points below salary-based expectation on DK in 2016. This is not a matchup to test in cash games, but if you’re determined to be contrarian, FantasyLabs’ (incredibly accurate) projected ownership of Powell is zero to one percent on both sites.
WR – Brandon Marshall
Marshall’s 26 percent target market share this season is the 10th-highest percentage in the NFL, and he currently holds an overwhelming 42.82 percent market share of Air Yards (third in the NFL). He has been targeted an average of 10.75 times per game in the last four. Per our Trends tool, wide receivers getting a comparable market share of targets have generated a +3.16 Plus/Minus on FD when playing the Ravens in 2016. Marshall is currently the 12th-rated WR in our Tournament Model for FD, where he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating, is tied for the third-most Pro Trends (eight), and comes with just five to eight percent projected ownership. Marshall is an elite receiver getting a ton of opportunity. Even though the Ravens have been great against the pass overall, they have really struggled against WR1s (ranked 25th, per Football Outsiders). In a small sample size, Marshall has very comparable stats with Geno versus Fitzpatrick:
WR – Quincy Enunwa
With Eric Decker now on the Injured Reserve, Enunwa finds himself firmly in the No. 2 WR role. Unfortunately, he hasn’t taken advantage of the situation and has actually been worse since Decker’s injury:
Enunwa is a low-end GPP option on a team that could struggle to move the ball with Geno in Week 7.
WR – Jalin Marshall and Robby Anderson
Anderson played 100 percent of the snaps in Week 6 against the Cardinals, whereas Marshall saw just 11 percent in his return from injury. The two are expected to compete for the No. 3 WR role in an offense now led by Geno. They are fringe GPP darts at best.
TE – Austin Seferian-Jenkins
ASJ (ankle) has been ruled out for Week 7. In his place the Jets will use Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman at the TE position.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
