The Week 7 NFL Dashboard
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Giants at Rams
London calling! The Giants are favored by 2.5 points as the ‘home’ team in London this week and are implied to score 23 points. The ‘visiting’ Rams are implied to score 20.5 points.
New York Giants
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Eli Manning
FantasyLabs Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman wrote about London games and the disgustingly ‘pornographic’ effect they have had on favored quarterbacks. If you’re too lazy to click on that link I’ll summarize his findings for you: Since 2014, every single favored QB in London has smashed salary-based expectations by an average of about seven points. The Rams have allowed the 10th-most passing touchdowns (11) in the NFL this season and their two outside cornerbacks — Troy Hill and E.J. Gaines — both have Pro Football Focus grades of 51 or worse. If you are playing a degenerate London slate feel free to deploy Manning in guaranteed prize pools with great confidence. (Yes, I just used “Eli” and “confidence” in the same sentence).
RB – Rashad Jennings
Jennings is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. But perhaps there is a key. The Giants rode him hard with great success at the end of last season, but he’s averaged just 13.3 carries per game when he’s been healthy enough to play this season. The Rams have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards (575) and ninth-most rushing touchdowns (5). Per our Trends tool, since 2014 favored London RBs with comparable ceilings have produced a +6.17 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. History is on his side, but Jennings is nothing more than a scary GPP dart.
RB – Bobby Rainey
Rainey is currently a top-15 DK RB in both the Bales and Levitan Player Models. As seen in Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, even though Rainey has played in just three of the Giants last four games his target share (12.2 percent) is nearly identical to that of wide receiver Victor Cruz (12.8 percent). Jennings makes an intriguing contrarian stack with Eli this week.
WR – Odell Beckham
I’m not going to rehash that time I said “Beckham is an elite receiver getting a ton of opportunity; a massive breakout is on the horizon.” Instead I’ll point you toward John Proctor’s NFL WR/CB Matchups piece in which he details the very advantageous matchup Odell gets to feast on this weekend. (That way if Odell tanks I can just blame Johnny P.) Beckham has gotten 25.61 percent of the Giants’ targets and a 36.93 percent share of their Air Yards in the past four games. During the past five games Beckham has averaged 10.6 targets per game. If Eli goes bananas this weekend it will likely be because of OBJ. Stack the two polar opposites together and hope for magnetic energy in London.
WR – Sterling Shepard
Shepard has been the second-most targeted player in the Giants offense since Week 1. The problem is that he hasn’t been productive. Despite a plethora of targets — 7.25 per game over the past four weeks — Shepard has eclipsed 5.0 FanDuel points just once in that time frame. At least in cash games it’s advisable to steer clear of Sterling until he demonstrates an ability to do more with his opportunities.
WR – Victor Cruz
Cruz has played more snaps the past four weeks than both Beckham and Shepard. During that time he has turned 21 targets into a total of 20.6 FD points.
TE – Giants Committee
Welcome to hell. In the land of weeping and gnashing of teeth you are forced to decipher which Giants tight end will receive more snaps and targets on a weekly basis. Look elsewhere for a tight end this week unless of course you enjoy self-inflicted displeasure.
Los Angeles Rams
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Case Keenum
If you’re ever questioning whether you should start a QB against the Detroit Lions this year, simply look to Week 6 as a reminder: ‘Kalifornia Keenum’ went 27 of 32 for 321 yards and three touchdowns — a 33.5-point DK performance. To put that game into some perspective, Aaron Rodgers hasn’t thrown for 300 yards in 13 games. (Ironically, his last 300-yard game came last November against . . . the Lions.) What I’m trying to say is this: Don’t judge Keenum this week by his statistics from last week. He’s playing the Giants, and while they aren’t amazing defensively against the pass — they rank 15th in Football Outsiders’ pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) — they are certainly better than the Lions (31st in pass DVOA). Keenum has a low 4.6-point projected DK floor.
RB – Todd Gurley
Gurley had a more efficient game in Week 6, posting 4.1 yards per carry (YPC) on 14 attempts. He also added four receptions on his four targets, which was nice to see after there were rumors floating around that his targets would drop with the return of Benny Cunningham to the lineup. This isn’t an ideal matchup, as the Giants rank ninth against the run this year per DVOA. However, there are some positive factors going for Gurley. First, there’s no doubt about who owns this Rams backfield:
Second, Gurley has seen large price drops of $1,500 DK and $800 FD since Week 1 of the season. The drops are very warranted — Gurley has exceeded salary-based expectations only twice this year — but he is much more talented than his $6,300 DK price tag indicates. Underdog teams have historically struggled in London games, but our Trends tool shows that perhaps RBs can buck that trend:
Gurley is certainly not worthy of cash-game consideration, but he’s probably worth using in guaranteed prize pools given his talent and historical upside.
RB – Benny Cunningham
This blurb is less about Cunningham and more about Gurley: In Benny’s return to the lineup in Week 6, he received two rush attempts and two targets. He’s not likely to cut into Gurley’s opportunities.
WR – Tavon Austin
Everyone’s favorite DFS punchline received his fewest targets of the year in Week 6, getting just four, which he turned into three receptions. He still leads the Rams in target share over the past month (23.73 percent), but he no longer has the highest percentage of Air Yards. In fact, both Kenny Britt and Brian Quick have him beat in that regard. The Rams want to get Austin the ball in space and have been looking for him on short routes. Unfortunately, it just hasn’t worked. The Giants rank fifth against WR1s this season per DVOA. Austin continues to be cheap: He’s $4,000 DK and has a +3.9 Projected Plus/Minus and 80 percent Bargain Rating. He’s projected to be owned in only zero to one percent of lineups. History suggests that he’ll go off one of these weeks. Which week? Who knows.
WR – Kenny Britt
Is Britt a thing?
I think Britt might just be a thing. In Week 6, he exploded, catching seven of his eight targets for 136 yards and two touchdowns — a huge 35.6-point DK week. It’s easy to write that off as simply the result of a matchup against the Lions — and that could be it — but it’s important to note that Britt has received 29.86 percent of the Rams’ Air Yards over the past month and his target share has steadily increased over the last three games. While the Giants are elite against WR1s, they are pretty terrible against WR2s, ranking 29th per DVOA. Unfortunately, because of his success lately, Britt could draw coverage against top cornerback Janoris Jenkins, who has a strong 81.2 grade from Pro Football Focus. Britt is an intriguing GPP play.
WR – Brian Quick
The guy who might benefit the most from Britt’s potential Jenkins coverage and Tavon’s Austin-ness is Quick. Per our NFL Matchups tool, he is slated to run against Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who is PFF’s 52nd-ranked CB. Quick has received only 14.41 percent of the Rams’ targets in the last month, but he’s second on the team with 28.45 percent of the Air Yards. When he’s getting targets, they’re fantasy-friendly opportunities. He’s a risky play, but he has hit expectations in each of his last four games and comes with a $3,200 DK price tag and zero to one percent FantasyLabs ownership projections.
TE – Lance Kendricks
Although the Giants have allowed DK TEs to score 3.3 points over salary-based expectations in the past 12 months, that could be a bit misleading. In 2016, they boast the seventh-best defense versus TEs, per DVOA. Kendricks isn’t an awful play — he did receive eight targets in Week 6 — but know that you’re betting on a touchdown. He accumulated only 34 receiving yards on his five receptions last week and had only 76 combined yards in his three games prior.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
