The Week 7 NFL Dashboard
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Buccaneers at 49ers
This game currently has a 46.5-point Vegas total. The Buccaneers are 2.5-point road favorites implied to score 24.5 points. The 49ers are home underdogs currently implied to score 22 points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Jameis Winston
Over the first few weeks we’ve seen erratic play from Winston. It was so bad that it forced offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter to dial it back a bit in Week 5 and let Jacquizz Rodgers run rampant with 30 rushing attempts. Coming off the bye week, Koetter should have Winston in line for a solid performance against the 49ers, who have given up 12 passing touchdowns on the season (the league’s seventh-highest mark). Winston is currently averaging just 18 FanDuel points per game, but our Player Models currently have him projected for a ceiling of 28.2 FD points. That ceiling is certainly worth chasing, and Winston makes for a great stacking option with Mike Evans and/or Cameron Brate.
RB – Jacquizz Rodgers
Per the FantasyLabs News feed, Doug Martin (hamstring) has suffered a setback and won’t play this week. That means that Rodgers this week will be Tampa Bay’s bell-cow RB, just as he was in Week 5 when he had a 30-carry breakout performance. It’s scary to think that Rodgers could see more carries this week, given San Francisco’s uptempo pace. The 49ers have allowed opposing starting running backs to eclipse 25 DraftKings points in four straight games. They’re also allowing the most rushing yards, the second-most rushing touchdowns, and the fourth-most DK points to opposing running backs. At just $4,300 DK, Rodgers is a fantastic option to build your lineups around this week.
RB – Peyton Barber
Barber was limited in his NFL debut in Week 5, getting just three touches while Rodgers stole the spotlight. There’s no reason to think that Week 7 will be any different.
WR – Mike Evans
After putting Vincent Jackson on Injured Reserve this week, the Bucs need to give Evans a rain coat because he’s about to get showered with targets. Only Antonio Brown and Jarvis Landry have a higher percentage of their team’s target market share than Evans over the last four games. John Proctor noted in his WR-CB Matchups article that the 49ers give up the most production to opposing WR1s in the league and have struggled defending deep passes. Evans ranks top-ten in average depth of target and is seeing an obscene 12.4 targets per game. He makes for a fantastic play on both sites in both cash and guaranteed prize pools.
WR – Cecil Shorts
Shorts (hamstring) is questionable for Week 7 but expected to play and start in V-Jax’s place. In other news, Shorts is still in the NFL.
WR – Adam Humphries
We’ve seen several big outings from Humphries already this season, but he should take on a more consistent role without V-Jax, who saw 83 percent of the offensive snaps before his injury. Humphries has been primarily used as an underneath checkdown option for Winston, running 79 percent of his routes from the slot. He draws a bit of a tough assignment this week if he keeps running routes there, where he’ll find cornerback Keith Reaser lined up against him. Reaser has been solid so far this year, allowing just 0.22 fantasy points per route defended. However, the 49ers have allowed Doug Baldwin to put up an 8-164-1 stat line and Larry Fitzgerald to finish with 6-81-2. Humphries has potential, especially if Tampa Bay can move Humphries around the formation.
TE – Cameron Brate
Brate is another player who should see a sizable uptick in volume following V-Jax’s departure. Brate currently has a strong +4.9 DK Projected Plus/Minus to go along with eight Pro Trends at just $2900. The 49ers are top-ten in most red zone trips allowed to opposing offenses. That bodes well for Brate, who leads all Bucs skill players in opportunities inside the 10-yard line over their last four games.
San Francisco 49ers
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Colin Kaepernick
Kaep was miserable throwing the ball in his first game of the season last week, finishing 13 of 29 for 187 yards and a touchdown. However, he did run the ball eight times, accumulating 66 yards on the ground. As a result, he exceeded value on his $5,000 DK minimum price tag by 4.19 points. This week, he faces a Bucs team that ranks 22nd against the pass and 14th against the run per DVOA. They rank 30th against RBs on the year. I know that Kaep isn’t an RB, but it is important to note that Carlos Hyde is expected to miss Week 7 and head coach Chip Kelly could elect to let Kaep use his legs even more. That will likely determine his success this week: If he’s able to get out of the pocket and make things happen, he’s interesting in DFS. If he has to throw to keep up with the Bucs’ offense . . . not so much.
RB – Mike Davis
Per our NFL News feed, “Davis dominated usage ahead of Shaun Draughn last week after Hyde exited, out-snapping him 24 to five and out-touching him six to one.” Davis wasn’t able to do anything with those touches in Week 6, finishing with 13 yards on his five rushing attempts and six receiving yards on his three targets. However, the opportunity is there — and we know that opportunity is everything for RBs. Because of his projected workload, Davis has a +7.9 DK Projected Plus/Minus, which is the second-highest RB mark in the slate. The Bucs have a stout Opponent Plus/Minus against RBs, but as shown by their DVOA they might be more exploitable than expected.
RB – Shaun Draughn
In his games as a starter last season, Draughn wasn’t awful:
For reference, if he put up 12.47 PPR points this weekend, that would result in a +7.7 Plus/Minus. However, his situation this year is different than last, as 1) Kaep could run more and 2) Davis could end up being the early-down workhorse. It’s concerning that in a game in which Hyde got injured, Draughn saw only one carry and one target. He’s a GPP-only play given the extreme usage risk.
WR – Torrey Smith
While Kaep didn’t have a great game throwing the ball, Smith benefited from having Kaep on the field: Torrey grabbed three of his seven targets for 76 yards and a touchdown. At $3,300, he easily paid off his salary with 16.6 DK points. While the Bucs rank 22nd versus the pass (per DVOA), they are actually 10th against WR1s. Because of the QB change, it is hard to project these 49ers receivers. Smith received three targets combined in the two weeks prior to last week’s seven-target game. Which is more indicative of what’s to come? You have to invest only $3,800 to find out, but it very likely may not be worth it.
Smith (back) is officially questionable for Week 7. He had a limited practice on Friday.
WR – Jeremy Kerley
Kerley had his worst game of the season in Week 6, catching only two of his seven targets for 12 total yards — a 3.2-point DK outing. However, the seven targets were tied for the most on the team, which means that he has now led or tied for the most targets in each of the last four games. In the last month, he’s owned 32.71 percent of the 49ers’ targets and 33.23 percent of their Air Yards. This sounds silly, but spanning every team’s last four games, Kerley actually leads all skill-position players in percentage of his team’s targets. The Bucs rank 28th on passes in the middle of the field, per DVOA. Kerley is perhaps the most unsexy play in all of DFS, but he can’t be ignored anymore, given his usage.
WR – Quinton Patton
Patton exceeded expectations last week, catching four of his seven targets for 52 yards. Unfortunately, that explains exactly why you don’t want to use him in DFS: His ceiling is barely double-digit points. His floor is too low for cash games and his ceiling is too low for GPPs.
TE – Vance McDonald
The Bucs have been poor against tight ends in the past 12 months, allowing 3.0 points over salary-based expectations on DK. Unfortunately, the 49ers don’t use TEs as pass catchers in their offense. McDonald and Garrett Celek combined for two targets in Week 6 and neither has a projected ceiling higher than 8.5 points.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
