The Week 7 NFL Dashboard
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Bills at Dolphins
The Dolphins will host the Bills as 2.5-point underdogs this Sunday. The Bills have an implied total of 23.25 points. The Dolphins, just 20.75.
Buffalo Bills
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Tyrod Taylor
Even if his weapons are not elite, Taylor’s rushing ability is. Tygod is first in rush yards (236), second in rush yards per game (39), second in carries (34), and third in red-zone carries (four). For a guy who has been reduced to needing to throw two touchdown passes to Justin Hunter in the past two weeks, Taylor has a surprisingly high floor. That said, his home/road splits are problematic:
Even so, at $5,500 Tygod rates as the No. 2 DK QB in the Levitan Player Model, which prioritizes value. Taylor holds a 98 percent DK Bargain Rating and a FantasyLabs ownership projection of zero to one percent in the Millionaire Maker. His rushing ability makes him an option in cash games, but he has limited appeal in guaranteed prize pools due to his extreme home/road splits and lack of difference makers on offense.
RB – LeSean McCoy
McCoy (hamstring) suffered an injury in Wednesday’s practice but returned to practice on Friday. He’s officially questionable and expected to be a game-time decision. On the season, he’s the RB2 in DK and FD points per game, averaging 114 scrimmage yards, as well as 3.5 receptions and 1.16 touchdowns per game, but if he’s active this week McCoy will likely be limited.
RB – Mike Gillislee
If McCoy can’t go, Gillislee would assume lead-back duties against a Dolphins defense that has a leaky +2.5 DK Opponent Plus/Minus vs. RBs over the last 16 games. Gillislee has shown well on a small sample over last two seasons, averaging 5.98 yards per carry with five TDs on 64 carries. As the starter, he would represent a huge value even on the road in both cash games and GPPs due to the volume of opportunities he’d get in an offense that sees the majority of its offensive yardage come on the ground.
WR – Robert Woods
Woods is the leader in wide receiver snaps the past four weeks and largely a non-sexy play with limited upside. He is, however, top-25 in the league in target market share over the last month. The Dolphins have allowed a +2.4 DK Opponent Plus/Minus to WRs in the past 12 months, tied for the fourth-highest mark on the slate. Per our Trends Tool, road favorite receivers in comparable spots have produced a +1.89 Plus/Minus on 51.9 percent Consistency. Woods would be an acceptable punt play on DK if not for the fact that he’s missed practice all week with a foot injury.
Woods is officially doubtful and seems very unlikely to play in Week 7.
WR – Marquise Goodwin
He has been the furthest thing from efficient, but his targets are deep. The speedster is third on the team in target share at just 18.18 percent in the past four games but has a 28.74 percent share of Air Yards, a predictive stat for big-play potential. If there’s someone who can burn the Dolphins deep, it’s Goodwin. None of these pass catchers are great plays, but he does have an ownership projection of zero to one percent in the Millionaire Maker at a minimum price. If Woods is unable to play this week, Goodwin will be an intriguing option as the team’s theoretical ‘lead’ WR.
WR – Justin Hunter
The fact that Hunter is ‘relevant’ says a lot about the current state of the Bills offense. That said, per our Matchups tool he will mostly match up against CB Tony Lippett, who is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per route run this year, per Pro Football Focus. As long as Hunter gets the targets (he has just three since joining the Bills), he could beat Lippett and score his third touchdown in three weeks.
TE – Charles Clay
As a cheap punt play, Clay has been strong the past three weeks:
Clay is averaging 5.0 catches on 6.3 targets per game over the last three games and has seven Pro Trends on DK. He could easily hit cash value again this week, especially if Woods is out. Tygod has to throw somewhere.
Miami Dolphins
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Ryan Tannehill
On paper, the Bills have been great against opposing QBs this year:
Then you look at the quarterbacks they have faced:
Ick. There are some not-so-good quarterbacks on this list. But you know what? Tannehill definitely falls into the not-so-good quarterback category lately, scoring a combined 24.6 FD points in the last three weeks combined. He’s projected to be in zero to one percent of Milly Maker lineups in Week 7, but he carries a ton of risk in all formats. Tannehill has the sixth-worst FD QB rating in our Cash Model as he squares off against a Bills defense that ranks 11th this season ins Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
RB – Jay Ajayi
Last week, the Dolphins gave Ajayi more than 13 rush attempts in a single game for the first time. It worked out pretty well . . .
He dominated RB market share in Week 5 against the Titans at 76.4 percent and got 66.6 percent of the RB touches in the blowout of the Steelers in Week 6. The Dolphins are still going to mix other guys in and will struggle to run the ball at times, but their offensive line is finally healthy. And of course Arian Foster is likely to get snaps as he gets healthier, but that probably won’t be in Week 7.
Ajayi has floor/ceiling projections of 7.1/14.5 DK points at $4500. Ajayi clearly has some upside in GPPs, but the Bills defense is allowing the fourth-fewest yards per carry in the league to opposing running backs. The matchup, the risk of negative game flow, and the possibility of Foster stealing some snaps make Ajayi a risky option in cash games.
RB – Arian Foster
Per the FantasyLabs News feed, Foster is expected to remain in a situational third-down role as his hamstring still isn’t 100 percent. He played just 11 snaps against the Steelers in Week 6. With the emergence of Ajayi, Foster is hard to roster until he proves that he is healthy.
WR – Jarvis Landry
He has the second-highest target market share in the league (30 percent), seventh-highest yards after catch (3.5), and an overwhelming lead in team market share of Air Yards (33.25 percent). Per our NFL Week 7 WR/CB Matchups column, Landry could be in for a tough day against shutdown slot corner Nickell Robey-Coleman, against whom (per Pro Football Focus) QBs have a league-low 19.1 QB rating.
That said, Landry is the fourth-highest rated WR in our Cash Model on FD, where he holds a 96 percent Bargain Rating, the eighth-highest floor projection (8.8 points), and seventh-highest projected Plus/Minus (2.6). Landry remains the focal point of this Dolphins passing game and should continue to see massive target volume. He offers a nice target floor for cash games.
WR – DeVante Parker
Landry is soaking up the majority of the target volume, but Parker is second on the team in target market share at 17.12 percent over the last four games. He is getting important targets, too: He owns a 26.82 percent market share of Air Yards in the last four. He’s risky in cash games, but he’s a high-upside GPP play. This week (per our Matchups tool) he will line up against CB Ronald Darby, who offers Parker a top-25 WR/CB advantage in the slate, according to PFF.
WR – Kenny Stills
Stills will continue to have opportunities in three-wide sets and will battle for targets with Parker. Stills’ 19.7-yard average depth of target — the second-highest mark in the league through six weeks — makes him a volatile player. He has value most weeks in large-field GPPs because of his big-play ability. This week, though, he has a tough matchup against Stephon Gilmore on the outside.
TE – Dion Sims
Sims (concussion) has been ruled out for Week 7.
TE – MarQueis Gray
He had a fluky 3-81-0 line against the Steelers in Week 6. Don’t let last week fool you: For his career, he has 225 yards and no TDs.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
