The Week 7 NFL Dashboard
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Bengals at Browns
The Browns visit the Bengals in Week 7 as 10-point home dogs in a game with a 45.5-point total. The Bengals are implied for 27.75 points; the Browns are implied for 17.75 points.
Cleveland Browns
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Cody Kessler
Kessler drew the start in Week 6 and managed to have his best game of the season, throwing for 336 yards and two touchdowns on 41 attempts. Going into Week 6, the Titans’ passing defense was ranked eighth, per DVOA. After Week 6, 10th. So far, Kessler has exceeded everyone’s expectations as the Browns starter.
This week, he draws a middling Bengals defense that has looked very good and very bad at different times this season. While Kessler has played better than expected, Week 6 was his first game over 13 DraftKings points; he is the fourth-lowest rated QB in the Adam Levitan DK Model.
RB – Isaiah Crowell
After looking like one of the NFL’s best running backs over the first four weeks, Crowell has averaged less than 1.8 yards per carry in two straight games. However, context is important: He played against two of DVOA’s top-12 ranked rushing defenses in the Patriots and Titans. Priced at only $6,400 on FanDuel, Crowell has a projected ceiling of 16.1 points. He makes for an interesting GPP play given his price point and +3.5 Projected Plus/Minus on FD.
RB – Duke Johnson Jr.
Week 6 turned out to be another ‘Duke game,’ as he caught four passes for 56 yards and scored a goal-line touchdown. He received only eight total touches in that game, but he’s now scoring a team-high 1.14 PPR points per touch this season. At some point, he could overtake Crowell for the lead role.
Given his current usage, he’s a risky play. However, he is only $5,300 on FD with an 82 percent Bargain Rating and +3.7 Projected Plus/Minus.
WR – Terrelle Pryor
Pryor managed to take advantage of the Titans’ weak cornerbacks last week, catching nine of 13 targets for 75 yards and two touchdowns. Kessler clearly has an eye for Pryor: He is being targeted on a team-high 15.8 percent of his snaps.
This Week, Pryor should run the majority of his routes against Dre Kirkpatrick, per the NFL Matchups tool. Kirkpatrick has been bad this season, grading out as PFF’s 92nd overall cornerback. Pryor has a 78 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, but he also has a low 7.1-point projected floor given his health concerns. For those reasons, he’s a GPP-only play in Week 7.
Of course, Pryor (hamstring) hasn’t practiced all week and is officially questionable for Week 7. Head coach Hue Jackson has said that Pryor has a chance to play. Even if he’s active, he will likely be limited.
WR – Andrew Hawkins
Hawkins now has only one more target than Ricardo Louis. While Hawkins has played more snaps this season, he is seeing a target on only 8.2 percent of his snaps and received only four in Week 6.
WR – Ricardo Louis
Hawkins may have out-snapped Louis 53 to 43 in Week 6, but he did not out-target him. Louis caught five of his nine targets for 65 yards. Once considered a project receiver, Louis has been forced onto the field for the Browns. He is beating out preseason standout Rashard Higgins for snaps in the regular season. If Pryor were to miss this game, Louis would become an every down player for the Browns. He has a minimum salary on both sites.
TE – Gary Barnidge
Barnidge came into Week 6 with a questionable tag but played through a forearm injury. He saw only five targets but caught three of them for 59 yards. Barnidge had seen his target market share rise for three straight weeks but received only 12 percent of Kessler’s passes in Week 6.
However, with Pryor battling an injury, Barnidge could see a big increase in usage this week. He is currently the third-highest rated TE in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings Player Model and will face off against a Bengals defense allowing a +3.0 Plus/Minus to opposing tight ends over the last 16 games.
Cincinnati Bengals
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Andy Dalton
Dalton finally had a game in which he scored multiple touchdowns, although one of them was on the ground. He now has four straight games in which he has completed over 67 percent of his passes. Dalton is now averaging a career-high 67.4 completion percentage this season. He is also averaging 8.2 Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (AY/A), the second-best mark of his career. The most remarkable part about his AY/A is that this metric heavily weighs passing touchdowns, and Dalton has only six.
As we mentioned last week, Dalton had only three touchdown passes in the red zone in 2016. Against the Patriots, he had one through the air and one on the ground. In Week 7, it’s possible that Dalton’s top red-zone weapon of 2015 may return. In 2015, Tyler Eifert caught 12 of 15 targets for 11 touchdowns in the red zone.
The Cleveland Browns have now allowed six consecutive quarterbacks to throw for multiple touchdown passes. They own the 30th-ranked pass defense, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) metric. Dalton is a top-eight quarterback on both FanDuel and DraftKings in Adam Levitan’s Player Model this week.
RB – Giovani Bernard
Bernard started yet again for the Bengals last week, receiving 15 carries and five targets. He also managed to be on the field for 66 percent of the team snaps. While he wasn’t able to convert, he did receive three carries inside the six-yard line in Week 6; that red-zone usage is a big boost for his value. Unfortunately for Gio, the Browns are allowing a -0.6 Plus/Minus to running backs over their last 16 games, as they continue to be exploited by receivers.
RB – Jeremy Hill
Hill managed to see only 33 percent of the team snaps in Week 6 and has seen less than 40 percent of the snaps for two straight weeks. There have been rumblings of Hill having an injury, which could make sense, as he has also averaged less than three yards per carry over the past two weeks.
Luckily for Hill, the Bengals are heavy favorites against DVOA’s 19th-ranked rushing defense. In 2015, Hill saw 87 percent of his carries while tied or leading. Even so, Hill’s role has been very unclear over the past two weeks and he continues to lose more work to Bernard. His lack of goal-line usage in Week 6 was especially troubling. Hill is projected with a ceiling of only 13.7 points on FanDuel, per our Player Models.
WR – A.J. Green
The Patriots did what they could to slow Green, limiting him to 88 yards on six catches. Green continues to see heavy target volume; he got 33 percent of Dalton’s targets in that game. Green now tees off against one of the NFL’s bottom-ranked passing defenses.
He should spend the majority of his day matching up with Jamar Taylor, per our NFL Matchups Tool. According to Pro Football Focus, Taylor has played better this season, grading out as no. 24 of 111 CB qualifiers. However, it is important to note that, over the last three seasons, Taylor has not received a PFF grade higher than 47.4 out of 100. He gave up consistent production to wide receivers in 2015 while he was in Miami. This should be a matchup that Green can win. Green rates as the third-highest WR in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings Player Model and is facing a defense that has given up a +3.4 Plus/Minus to wide receivers over the last 12 months.
WR – Brandon LaFell
In his Patriots revenge game, LaFell had only five targets and managed two catches for 13 yards and a touchdown. Behind Green, Gio, and Eifert (when he returns), targets will be hard to come by on this team.
WR – Tyler Boyd
Boyd saw another uptick in snaps in Week 6, finishing with 81 percent against the Patriots. He saw only five targets in that game but did catch four of them for 79 yards. He may overtake LaFell for the WR2 spot at some point this season, but for now he is very inconsistent. That being said, a breakout game for this preseason darling could be coming at some point.
TE – Tyler Eifert
Eifert may finally return in Week 7. If so, he’ll face a Browns defense that is ranked 30th against TEs this season, per DVOA. Eifert is a great bet every week for a touchdown whenever he is on the field. However, since his snaps may be limited at first, Eifert makes for a risky play this week.
Eifert (back) practiced this week and is officially questionable to make his 2016 debut in Week 7. The Bengals are expected to make a decision on Eifert’s availability on Saturday. If he plays, he will likely receive limited snaps. This is a situation to monitor.
TE – C.J. Uzomah
Uzomah started in place of Eifert in Week 6. However, he saw only two targets. Given the other punt options at TE, he’s not very intriguing with or without Eifert.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
