Week 5 saw Shareece Wright benched for poor performance after giving up five touchdowns over two weeks. His benching shows us how important it is to take advantage of these plus matchups while they exist. Let’s break down this week’s notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
Studs
Antonio Brown vs. Tony Lippett and Byron Maxwell
Neither of the Dolphins’ starting outside corners grade as top-50 cornerbacks on the season, per Pro Football Focus. Without much talent in the secondary, the Dolphins own the 20th-ranked pass defense per Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average). They have given up the majority of their production in the middle of the field: They’ve allowed 36 percent more yards than the league average in that area, per FO. Unfortunately, Brown spends the majority of his time on the outside, although the Steelers move him around the formation depending on the matchup.
That being said, both Lippett and Maxwell are very beatable; consider this an upgrade. The only downside to Brown is that his price has climbed to an extreme level: He’s $10,000 on DraftKings in Week 6. Brown has also dipped in target market share, ranking eighth in the NFL over the last four weeks. With Le’Veon Bell back and Sammie Coates emerging as a downfield threat, it could be difficult for Brown to pay off his salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Jimmy Smith
OBJ runs over 60 percent of his routes from the left side of the field, which is where Jimmy Smith lines up. Unfortunately for Beckham, Smith has been playing well this season and the Ravens’ LCBs have been playing very poorly: Baltimore is ranked 20th against WRs on the right side of the field per DVOA, as opposed to seventh on Beckham’s side.
Beckham has struggled this season, clearing 100 yards only once in five games. This doesn’t look to be the week to expect a bounce-back either: He owns a poor -0.8 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
A.J. Green vs. Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan
Green is the right wide receiver, but he runs an almost 50/50 split on the outside. This means he should see about equal time against both Patriots corners. Neither Butler nor Ryan boast a high PFF grade, but New England has a history of limiting the top skill player on opposing offenses. However, their passing defense has struggled this year and currently ranks 20th against opposing WR1s, per DVOA.
Green oddly took a backseat to Brandon LaFell last week: He got only eight targets to LaFell’s 11. The good news is that game script should be in Green’s favor this week, as the Bengals are 8.5-point dogs on the road.
Julio Jones vs. Deshawn Shead or Richard Sherman
Julio runs 50 percent of his routes as the LWR and therefore should avoid Sherman for most of the day if they play sides. However, Shead has been playing great football in his own right: He grades as PFF’s 12th-best cornerback this season.
However, it is important to note that Seattle shadowed Brandon Marshall in Week 4 with Sherman. It’s possible they do the same again this week with Julio. Regardless of the shadow situation, the Seattle secondary is a very tough matchup for WR1s, ranking fourth against them per DVOA. Julio will be low-owned this week: He currently has FantasyLabs projected ownership of two to four percent on DraftKings and zero to one percent on FanDuel.
Notable Upgrades
Jeremy Maclin vs. D.J. Hayden
While Maclin plays outside in two receiver sets, he has run 40 percent of his routes from the slot this year. Both David Amerson and Sean Smith have ranked as top-21 corners this year, per PFF. Maclin will avoid them on nearly 50 percent of his routes, running from the slot at PFF’s 59th-graded corner, Hayden.
Maclin has not cleared 100 yards yet this season but has seen at least seven targets in every game. In Week 4 against Oakland, while running most of his routes from the slot, Steve Smith caught eight passes for 111 yards and a touchdown. Maclin should see similar usage in a similar matchup this week. He is a top-five rated wide receiver in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings Player Model.
Allen Robinson vs. Tracy Porter
Robinson has had a slow start to the 2016 season, but he showed last season that he has elite upside in any given week. He has not yet cleared 100 yards this season, but he has three games of 10 or more targets. This week he should spend the majority of his day facing off against Tracy Porter, but much like T.Y. Hilton last week, he should move all over the formation. Hilton exploded for 171 yards on 10 catches against this Bears secondary. They rank 27th this year against WR1s, per DVOA. Look for Robinson to bounce back big this week.
Tavon Austin vs. Quandre Diggs
While I’m not sure I want to live in a world in which Tavon Austin commands nine weekly targets, here we are. Tavon has two games under 20 yards receiving this season and has been very inconsistent. However, his targets have remained consistent; he’s received at least six every week. In Week 6, Austin will face off against Diggs, the Lions’ slot cornerback. Diggs is PFF’s 106th-graded CB out of 116 qualifiers. Per FO, the Lions are giving up the second-most production in the middle of the field, allowing 63.6 percent more production than league average. Austin has seven DK Pro Trends this week and boasts a week-high +6.1 Projected Plus/Minus.
Notable Downgrades
Brandon Marshall vs. Patrick Peterson
Peterson, PFF’s sixth-overall graded CB, will surely shadow Marshall on Monday night. According to PFF, Peterson has not allowed a receiver to accumulate more than 38 receiving yards against him this season. While the Cardinals have struggled, PatPete has been absolutely lights out. A week after abusing the Steelers cornerbacks, Marshall draws one of the toughest shadow matchups in the NFL. Marshall should continue to see 10-plus targets while Decker is out, but it is important to note that he caught only four of 12 targets against Richard Sherman’s shadow coverage.
Chargers WRs vs. Broncos Secondary
Both Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin cleared 100 yards receiving in Week 5 and Philip Rivers cleared 300 yards passing for the third straight week. Unfortunately for those guys, they face DVOA’s second-overall ranked passing defense this week. Aqib Talib has graded out as PFF’s No. 1 overall corner, while Chris Harris Jr. grades as the No. 3 overall CB. Things will be difficult for Rivers, as the Broncos are allowing only 208 passing yards per week. Further, Denver has allowed an NFL-low -1.4 Plus/Minus to receivers on DraftKings over the last 16 games.
