Using our Stacking tool found within our revamped Models 3.0, this piece will identify some of the top stacks of the weekend. Check out our new Correlations page as well to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver
- Kirk Cousins ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
- Jamison Crowder ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
Currently a top-two stack in the Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel, this duo has the pleasure of playing for a Redskins team implied to score a whopping 28.8 points against San Francisco. Cousins has top-five points and ceiling projections on both sites and has kicked it into gear with five total touchdowns in his past two games after weathering his traditional slow start in September. Per the Trends tool, since 2015 Cousins has dominated October, November, and December: In 25 games he has generated 22.18 points per game (PPG) with a +5.99 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 20.62 PPG with a +5.22 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
The 49ers defense has allowed the sixth-most points to wide receivers on DraftKings (39.8) and eighth-most on FanDuel (30.5) this season (per Pro Football Reference). Despite seeing only one target against Kansas City, Crowder (a model in this week’s WR Breakdown) has the third-highest target percentage (15.7 percent) on the Redskins this season and gets a juicy matchup against K’Waun Williams and the brutal 49ers secondary. Plus, head coach Jay Gruden said he wants to get Crowder more involved in the offense.
Running Back + D/ST
- Devonta Freeman ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
- Atlanta Defense ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,000 Atlanta)
Freeman has been ridiculous as a home favorite, averaging 22.11 PPG with a +6.04 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 19.80 PPG with a +6.48 Plus/Minus on FanDuel in 16 games since 2015. As noted by Bryan Mears, Miami is the strongest pass funnel in the league, and for this stack to work out, the Atlanta defense will need to play well enough to have the Falcons potentially leaning heavily on Freeman to close out a lopsided game. As the great Hump Bumgardner I pointed out in this week’s Defense Breakdown, this is a potential smash spot for the Falcons defense:
Favored by a slate-high 13 points at home, the Atlanta Falcons welcome in a lifeless Miami Dolphins team that has scored the fewest points (10.2) and gained the fewest yards per game (231.2) in the NFL this season. The Falcons are coming off a bye and have had two weeks to prepare for a team quarterbacked by the perennially-awful Jay Cutler. Their offensive line coach just resigned for . . . reasons. The Falcons may register 476 sacks on Sunday (that’s hyperbole). Don’t overthink this: Release the red birds!
Quarterback + Tight End
- Deshaun Watson ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
- Ryan Griffin ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel)
Quite possibly the greatest rookie quarterback in the history of the universe, Deshaun Chalkson is likely to be one of the two highest-owned quarterbacks on the slate. His target-hogging wide receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, is also likely to be one of the top-two owned receivers on the slate. So it stands to reason that the pair will be the highest-owned stack on the slate, which is why we will pivot to Griffin in our Texans stack. By the way, this type of thinking won somebody a million bucks last week. Nobody has given up more DraftKings (19.9) or FanDuel (16.0) PPG to tight ends this season than the Browns, and Griffin has the second-highest target share (12.5 percent) on the Texans this season. Deshaun has attempted at least 31 passes in each of his last three games while averaging four touchdowns and 31.8 DraftKings points per game.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Wide Receiver + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Drew Brees ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
- Michael Thomas ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
- Ted Ginn ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)
- Golden Tate ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
What better place to get exposure to both sides of the football than the Coors Field of daily fantasy football? Probably none. Brees, Thomas, and Ginn are the No. 1 rated stack in the CSURAM88 Model for DraftKings, and when you add in the wide receiver tied for eighth in the NFL with 29 catches (Tate), you’ve got yourself a potential points party.
So far this season, the Lions defense has held quarterbacks in check, allowing the 10th-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing signal callers (15.8). However, it’s been well documented how good Brees is at home: Since the start of the 2015 season, Drew has averaged 27.45 DraftKings PPG with a +7.42 Plus/Minus and excellent 82.4 percent Consistency. Brees has scored at least 35 points in five of those 17 games (29.4 percent). Thomas has been on the field for more offensive snaps than any other Saints player and has seen a team-high 24.67 percent of Brees’ targets. Ginn has been targeted on just 10.67 percent of the Saints’ attempts, but he could easily pay off four times his salary with just one home run. Tate currently has the second-highest projected ceiling on DraftKings and leads the Lions with a 21.21 percent target share.
