Monkey Knife Fight takes a new spin on daily fantasy, combining player props and parlays. With exciting contest structures, put your football knowledge to the test and pit player performances against one another.
Check out a few picks to consider in this exciting format for Week 6 with the help of our NFL Player Props Tool.
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Joe Burrow Passing Yards (280.5) vs. Jared Goff Passing Yards (256.5)
Joe Burrow has a prime matchup against a Detroit Lions defense ranked 29th in DVOA. Burrow has averaged 253 passing yards per game in the first five games, using a condensed receiving corps of Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd. Currently, 3.5-point favorites, the Bengals, who rank as the slowest-paced team in the league, averaging a snap every 30.1 seconds, could opt for a more run-friendly offense to run out the clock toward the end of the game, especially with the return of Joe Mixon in the backfield. Dating back to last season, Burrow has reached the 281 passing yard mark in seven games. We’re projecting Burrow to throw for 267.5 passing yards against the Lions, well below the lofty 280.5 mark.
Facing a Bengals defense ranked seventh in DVOA, Jared Goff has a tough matchup in a less-than-ideal game environment. Goff is averaging 260.5 passing yards per game, completing 66% of his passes. As underdogs, expect the Lions to increase their top 10 pace and pass-heavy 65%/35% pass-to-run split to keep the game close, using a distributed receiving corps including D’Andre Swift, T.J. Hockenson and Amon-Ra St. Brown as primary weapons. Dating back to last season, Goff has reached the 257 passing yard mark in eight games. Our models project Goff to have a less-than-stellar outing, throwing for 248.5 yards, trending him toward the under.
The Pick: Joe Burrow Less 280.5 passing yards, Jared Goff Less 256.5 passing yards
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Justin Herbert Passing Yards (295.5) vs. Lamar Jackson Passing Yards (239.5)
Sunday’s matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Baltimore Ravens pits two high-powered offenses in a game total currently at 51 points. Justin Herbert has had a dominant start to the season, averaging 315 yards per game and completing 67% of his pass attempts. Facing a Ravens defense ranked 20th in pass DVOA should allow Herbert to move a Chargers offense ranked as the fourth-fastest, averaging 24.1 seconds per snap down the field through the passing game. The Chargers skew toward a more pass-heavy play-calling scheme, using a 64%/36% pass-to-run split and average the most plays in the league, calling 77 plays per game, according to the RotoViz Pace and Snap App.
Dating back to last season, Herbert has reached the 296 passing yard threshold 11 times and, as a 3-point underdog, should increase the passing cadence to keep the game competitive. We’re projecting Herbert to pass for 297.5 passing yards and should easily reach the over in a matchup with shootout potential.
Opposite of Herbert, Lamar Jackson exceeds expectations as one of the top quarterbacks in the league. As a dual-threat option and efficient in both the pass and run game, Jackson looks to have an ideal matchup against a Chargers defense ranked 18th in DVOA according to Football Outsiders. Despite Baltimore’s balanced 54%/46% pass-to-run split this season, Jackson has averaged 303.8 passing yards per game, reaching the 240 passing yard threshold in three of the first five games of the season, most recently throwing for 442 yards in a 31-25 win over the Indianapolis Colts. Our player props tool projects Jackson to throw for 255 yards in Week 6, trending him toward the over.
The Pick: Justin Herbert More 295.5 passing yards, Lamar Jackson More 240.5 passing yards
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Kyler Murray Passing Yards (275.5) vs. Baker Mayfield Passing Yards (250.5)
Kyler Murray continues to be one of the more consistent in the league, leading the league with a 75% completion rate and ranking six in passing yards with 1,512. In a Week 6 matchup against the Cleveland Browns, Murray looks to have a more difficult matchup against the 12th-ranked DVOA defense in the league. Dating back to last season, Murray has reached the 276 passing-yard threshold eight times. Despite being a 3.5-point underdog and likely skewing their play-calling scheme toward a more pass-heavy approach, Murray projects to throw for 270.5 yards, which trends him toward the under.
Baker Mayfield also looks to have a more difficult matchup, facing an Arizona Cardinals defense that ranks fourth in DVOA. Completing 66% of his passes this season, Mayfield is averaging 248 yards per game. In addition to the tough defensive matchup, the Browns are among the slowest-paced teams in the league, averaging 29 seconds in between snaps. Currently favorites in the Week 6 matchup, the Browns should continue to skew toward their run-first play calling script, which is tilted 53%/47% run-to-pass through the first five games. However, Mayfield has reached the 251 passing yard mark eight times dating back to last season.
We’re projecting Mayfield to throw for 238.5 passing yards, far below the 251 passing yard mark.
The Pick: Kyler Murray Less 275.5 passing yards, Baker Mayfield Less 250.5 passing yards
