The Week 6 NFL Dashboard
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Steelers at Dolphins
The Steelers travel to Miami in Week 6 as 7.5-point favorites. This game currently has a 48-point Vegas total. The Steelers are implied for 27.75 points; the Dolphins are implied for 20.25 points.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben has now thrown for three or more touchdowns in four of five games this season. He has also thrown for at least 300 yards in three of those games. Over his last two games — when Le’Veon Bell returned to the lineup — Ben is averaging 340 yards passing and has nine touchdowns and no interceptions. Unfortunately, Ben goes on the road this week, where he has played significantly worse since 2014. See his splits below (per RotoViz).
This week, Ben may have little reason to throw the ball, as they are heavy favorites against a Dolphins team giving up the most rushing yards in the NFL. The Dolphins are allowing 150.8 rushing yards per game and have allowed the most attempts this season at 180. For those reasons, Ben rates outside the top-10 quarterbacks in CSURAM88’s DraftKings Player Model. He’s better suited for GPPs than cash games this week.
RB – Le’Veon Bell
Bell has a dream matchup in Week 6: He is a heavy favorite and going against a team allowing 36 rushing attempts and 150.8 yards per week to running backs. Just last week, they allowed DeMarco Murray to rush for 121 yards on 27 attempts. The Steelers have shown that they’ll ride Bell; he is averaging 19 carries and 8.5 targets in the two games since his return.
He’s in play in all contest formats: He has the highest-projected floor among RBs at 20.9 DK points, as well as the highest ceiling at 37.3 points. His FantasyLabs projected ownership is the highest of the week at 26 to 30 percent. He’s as chalky as chalk gets.
RB – DeAngelo Williams
Williams managed to see 12 snaps in Week 5 but got only one carry and one target. He’s officially Bell’s backup again.
WR – Antonio Brown
Brown is the highest-priced wide receiver on both DK and FD and for very good reason. He has scored at least 22 DK points and gotten 11-plus targets in four of five games this year. While Vegas suggests the game sets up better for Bell, Brown will mostly match up against CB Tony Lippett, who is allowing the second-most fantasy points per route run this year, per Pro Football Focus. As long as Brown gets the targets, he will have no trouble beating Lippett.
Because of his $10,000 DK price tag, he rates higher in our FanDuel Models this week. He has eight FanDuel Pro Trends and the highest-projected ceiling at 24.4 points. The biggest issue with Brown this week other than his high price is his projected high ownership: He is projected to be owned in 26 to 30 percent of FD Sunday Million lineups.
WR – Sammie Coates
Coates now has eight-plus targets in back-to-back weeks. He is also averaging a silly-high 22.2 yards per reception. While he has struggled with drops (four last week), Coates has officially taken on the deep-threat role vacated by Martavis Bryant. Coates’ explosive Week 5 performance may make him popular in Week 6, as shown by his 13 to 16 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
Coates (finger) missed some practice this week with a laceration on his hand, but he was able to practice on Friday. He’s officially questionable but expected to play.
WR – Eli Rogers
Markus Wheaton (shoulder) has been ruled out, and Rogers should be starting in his place in the slot. Meh. He’s a risky play even in GPPs. He’s fifth in the pecking order.
TE – Jesse James
James saw a boost in targets in Week 5 but still managed to accumulate only 43 yards on his six catches. Per Rich Hribar of Rotoworld, James has produced 36.9 percent of his fantasy points through touchdowns. This is the highest rate of any top-12 scoring tight end this season. Still, his eight targets in Week 5 are encouraging and he continues to be priced reasonably on DraftKings at $3,000. He is the second-highest rated TE in CSURAM88’s DK Player Model and has a 96 percent Bargain Rating.
Miami Dolphins
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Ryan Tannehill
The Steelers have allowed the third-most passing yards per game (307.6) to quarterbacks through five games. Per our Trends tool, they’ve allowed QBs to score 2.78 points over salary-based expectations on DK at 80 percent Consistency and just 2.6 percent ownership:
Tannehill hasn’t been very good lately, scoring a combined 15.2 DK points in the last two weeks. However, this week he is cheap on DK at $5,400 and should have to throw a lot, as the Dolphins are large 7.5-point favorites. He’s projected to be in zero to one percent of Milly Maker lineups in Week 6. There’s a ton of risk here (Pittsburgh D/ST perhaps?) but he’s not an awful GPP play; he’s the sixth-highest rated DK QB in the Adam Levitan Model.
RB – Arian Foster
The run game in Miami has been a disaster without Foster in the past three weeks. He is cheap on DK at $4,700 but comes with a lot of risk due to the likely poor game script. For what it’s worth, he did get five targets and 62 receiving yards in Week 1 against Seattle.
Foster (hamstring) is officially questionable and reportedly will be a true game-time decision. If he returns this week, he’ll likely resume his role as the Dolphins’ lead back, but he might not get as much work as he normally would when fully healthy. His situation is one to monitor.
RB – Jay Ajayi
Ajayi got 13 touches in Week 5 — his highest total of the year — and will likely be the lead back once again if Foster is unable to play. If Foster does play, Ajayi will likely serve as the No. 2 back, seeing action only to give Foster a break.
WR – Jarvis Landry
Landry’s three targets last week will most likely prove to be an outlier. He has a nice matchup against the Steelers this week; they are allowing the most receptions and ninth-most receiving yards in the league through five weeks. Landry remains the focal point of this Dolphins passing game and gets a Pittsburgh secondary in Week 6 that has allowed the highest Opponent Plus/Minus in the past 12 months to FD WRs on the slate (+2.7). He is still third in the league in target market share (30.58 percent) in the past four weeks. Landry is in play in both cash games and GPPs; he has the seventh-highest projected floor and fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FD. He is the highest-rated FD WR in the Adam Levitan Player Model.
WR – DeVante Parker
Landry is soaking up the majority of the target volume, but Parker is second on the team in target market share at 19.83 percent in the last four games. He is getting important targets, too: He owns a 33.40 percent market share of Air Yards (MS Air) in the last four. He remains better suited as a high-upside GPP play until he can show more consistency; he has just six targets in the past two weeks.
WR – Kenny Stills
Stills will continue to have opportunities in three-wide sets and will battle for targets with Parker. Stills’ 21.7-yard average depth of target (aDOT) mark — the highest mark in the league through five games — makes him a volatile player week-to-week. He does have value in large-field GPPs because of his big-play ability; however, according to our Matchups tool, he has poor matchup against the Steelers’ highest PFF-graded cornerback, William Gay. That said, he’s very cheap on DK at $3,300 and boasts a 97 percent Bargain Rating there.
TE – Dion Sims
There still is no timetable for Jordan Cameron’s return from concussion and thus Sims will continue to see the majority of the Dolphins’ TE snaps. He has two catches for 15 yards and zero TDs over the last two weeks. Against a Steelers team ranked sixth against TEs (per DVOA) through five weeks, Sims is a GPP dart at best.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
