The Week 6 NFL Dashboard
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Ravens at Giants
In Baltimore’s first of two consecutive trips to MetLife Stadium, they have a low implied total of 20.25 points. The over/under for this game opened at 43.5, the second-lowest Vegas total on the week. The Giants are currently three-point favorites and have an implied total of 23.25 points.
Baltimore Ravens
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Joe Flacco
After another pedestrian outing from Flacco and the Ravens offense, Baltimore fired offensive coordinator Marc Trestman. Marty Mornhinweg will be the Ravens’ offensive coordinator for the rest of this season, which will hopefully provide a boost to this offense. While playing under Trestman this season, Flacco has thrown for 300 yards only once. He’s averaging only one touchdown and just under one interception per week. Flacco will look to get an offensive jump-start under his new coordinator.
Fortunately for Flacco, he is facing off against a defense that has been depleted by injuries to the secondary. Both Eli Apple and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie have been banged up over the last two weeks. The injuries are a big reason the Giants rank 18th against the pass, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average). Flacco has seven DK Pro Trends this week and is the seventh-highest rated QB in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings Player Model. Make sure to monitor Steve Smith’s status.
RB – Terrance West
West again handled the lead RB duties in Week 5, although that meant he got 11 of the Ravens’ low 18 rushes. At first glance, West seemingly had a good game, posting an 8.6 yards-per-carry average. However, 55 percent of West’s carries went for two yards or less. Fortunately for West, teammate Kenneth Dixon wasn’t any better.
West should continue to dominate the early-down work, but with limited pass-catching ability his weekly role will be unpredictable. West caught two of three targets for negative six yards in Week 5 and has only nine targets on the year. West has a low projected ceiling of 13.4 points in our FanDuel Player Models this week.
RB – Kenneth Dixon
Dixon is supposed to be the running back of the future for Baltimore. However, in Week 5, he played with a heavy knee brace and played on only four offensive snaps. He wasn’t able to get much going, carrying the ball three times for one negative yard. At some point we may see Dixon supplant West as the lead back, but it doesn’t look like it will be in Week 6.
WR – Steve Smith
Smith (ankle) hasn’t practiced all week and is officially doubtful. His chances of suiting up for the Ravens this weekend are slightly better than Matthew Freedman’s.
WR – Mike Wallace
Wallace started out the season very hot, catching three touchdown passes in his first two games. However, since then he has compiled only 141 yards receiving over the last three weeks. Even in a game in which Smith left in the first quarter, Wallace managed only 63 receiving yards. On a positive note, he did see 11 targets without Smith on the field.
With Smith or Kamar Aiken in the slot, Wallace looks to see a lot of Janoris Jenkins on the outside. Jenkins has graded out as PFF’s 40th-ranked CB this year. Wallace has a 27 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings; he’s only particularly interesting if Smith is out and targets open up.
Wallace (chest) is officially questionable but has practiced without limitations the last two days and is expected to play.
WR – Breshad Perriman
With Smith exiting last week’s game early, Perriman saw his snaps jump to 49 percent. Unfortunately, he saw only five targets and caught only two of them for 11 total yards. Perriman should see an increased role if Smith were to miss this week; he’s the $3,000 DK minimum and has a solid +4.1 Projected Plus/Minus.
WR – Kamar Aiken
Aiken played 56 percent of the Ravens’ snaps with Smith leaving in the first quarter. Unfortunately, that did not translate into fantasy success, as he didn’t catch a single one of his three targets. He was an offseason favorite in the DFS community but doesn’t look to be relevant this year so far.
TE – Dennis Pitta
Pitta played on 76 percent of the Ravens’ snaps in Week 5, his highest mark since Week 1. While Wallace looks to benefit from a possible Smith absence, Pitta should be the main beneficiary. Pitta saw seven targets after Smith left the game. He faces off against a Giants defense that is allowing a +3.4 Plus/Minus to opposing TEs on DraftKings over the last 16 games.
New York Giants
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Eli Manning
Manning has looked terrible in his last two games, averaging just 10.25 DraftKings points per game. That said, Eli has attempted the ninth-most passes in the NFL this season and is protected by the sixth-best pass protection unit in the league (per Football Outsiders). The Ravens have been stout against the run this year, which could lead to heavy volume for Manning this week. At some point this season, Odell Beckham will have a multi-touchdown game; Manning will reap the benefit of that when it happens. Over the past month, Eli has experienced a Salary Change of -$1,600 on DK. Per our Trends tool, quarterbacks with similar projected ceilings who have experienced comparable salary changes have produced a +3.15 Plus/Minus on DK. With FantasyLabs projected ownership under two percent in DK’s Millionaire Maker, Eli is a bold play in guaranteed prize pools.
RB – Rashad Jennings
Jennings (thumb) hasn’t played a single snap since Week 2 but is officially questionable and intends to play.
The Ravens have allowed 355 rushing yards (ninth-fewest) and just 18.1 DK points per game (fourth-fewest) to running backs this season. The Ravens are the top-ranked team against the run in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). According to our Trends tool, they have yielded a -1.04 Plus/Minus to RBs this season.
RB – Orleans Darkwa
If Jennings can’t play, Darkwa will be the lead back once again. In Jennings’ absence, he has led New York with 34.12 percent of their carries in the past four weeks.
RB – Bobby Rainey
Rainey has performed well filling in for the injured Shane Vereen in the past two weeks. Rainey has provided a +8.25 Plus/Minus on DK with 100 percent Consistency in that time frame. FantasyLabs projected ownership of Rainey in DK’s Millionaire Maker is currently at zero to one percent. Stacking him with Eli would cost just $9,200 and leave you with plenty of salary to roster some high-ceiling studs.
WR – Odell Beckham
Beckham’s 27.04 percent target market share over the past four games is the 11th-highest percentage in the NFL. He has been targeted an average of 10.75 times per game in the last four. Per our Trends tool, wide receivers getting a comparable market share of targets have generated a +5.56 Plus/Minus on FD when playing the Ravens in 2016. Odell is currently a top-seven rated WR in both Jonathan Bales’ and CSURAM88’s Player Models for FanDuel, where he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating. Beckham is an elite receiver getting a ton of opportunity; a massive breakout is on the horizon.
WR – Sterling Shepard
Shepard has maintained the second spot in the Giants’ target share behind Beckham all season. He has been targeted at least seven times per game in every game except Week 1. Shepard is clearly Eli’s second option in the Giants’ passing game; he owns a 23.62 percent market share of Air Yards (MS Air) in the last four games. If you’re looking to be sacrificial, Shepard’s FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent in FanDuel’s Sunday Million (where he has a 78 percent Bargain Rating) makes him a viable tournament target to stack with Eli.
WR – Victor Cruz
Cruz has not scored more than 9.1 FD points since Week 1 and he was shut out last week on just two targets. The Ravens have been above average defending the pass (ranked 12th by FO) this season. Players with comparable FD salaries and projected floors have returned a -0.14 Plus/Minus with 38 percent Consistency.
TE – Larry Donnell & Will Tye
Donnell (concussion) has been cleared and is expected to play this weekend. He and Tye will likely split snaps, with neither being particularly interesting for DFS.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
