The Week 6 NFL Dashboard
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Jets at Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals host the New York Jets on Monday night. This game has the seventh-highest total on the week at 46.5 points currently. The Cardinals are heavy 7.5-point home favorites implied for 27 points. The Jets are currently implied for just 19.5 points — the fourth-lowest mark of any Week 6 team.
New York Jets
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Ryan Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick faces an Arizona defense that ranks sixth overall and fifth against the pass, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). As a result, he has the fourth-lowest DK projection at 17.1 points and is tied with Case Keenum for the second-lowest projected ceiling. Per our Trends Tool, road underdog quarterbacks with comparable salaries, projected points, and opponent ratings typically underperform salary-based expectations (per our Plus/Minus metric):
RB – Matt Forte
The disappointment continued into Week 5 after a hot first two games of the season. How did we get from here . . .
. . . to here going into Week 6?
Has Forte been banged up? Sure, but the real problem has been the reemergence of Bilal Powell as a passing-game threat in this offense. Forte has just nine total targets in the past three games, and it’s going to be tough sledding for Forte in Week 6. Over the last year the Cardinals have held RBs to 0.8 DK points under expectations — the stingiest mark in the slate. Until Forte starts to show signs of life, at the very least in the passing game, he is nothing more than a GPP flyer in a tough matchup, as he could continue to see fewer snaps and touches than his salary suggests he’d see.
RB – Bilal Powell
Powell has seen an uptick in targets in the past three games, averaging 7.67 targets. With the lack of options at wide receiver after losing Eric Decker, he could see even more work as a receiver. That said, he is a low-upside play in Week 6 in a tough matchup on the road against the Cardinals, who have given up the 10th-fewest receptions and sixth-fewest receiving yards to running backs this year and have the lowest DK Opponent Plus/Minus.
WR – Brandon Marshall
He leads the team by a wide margin in target market share (29.30 percent) and market share of air yards (43.07 percent) and is also seventh and third respectively in the NFL in those categories over his past four games. In a small sample, Marshall has been a beast without Decker:
Unfortunately, Marshall draws one of the toughest matchups in the NFL, Patrick Peterson, who is Pro Football Focus’ sixth-ranked cornerback and expected to shadow Marshall on Monday night. According to PFF, Peterson has not allowed a receiver to accumulate more than 38 receiving yards against him this season. With Peterson on him, Marshall is likely someone to fade in cash, but he could have value in guaranteed prize pools, as he still has the potential for big production. He is tied for the second-most FD Pro Trends this week.
WR – Quincy Enunwa
With Decker now on Injured Reserve, Enunwa finds himself in the No. 2 WR role. His targets have actually gone down since Decker has been out, and the lack of depth on offense is starting to expose his deficiencies on a team that relies on spreading the field. Per our Matchups tool, Enunwa should see Marcus Cooper in coverage when he’s lined up outside, but when he’s in the slot he’ll likely run most of his routes against Tyrann Mathieu, one of the best slot coverage men in the league. Enunwa is a low-end GPP option on a team that will likely struggle to move the ball.
WR – Jalin Marshall and Robby Anderson
J. Marshall (shoulder) has missed the last couple of weeks but is expected to return in Week 6. He could split snaps with Anderson as the team’s No. 3 receiver.
Anderson out-snapped Enunwa 52-49 in Week 5 but had just two targets in a pristine matchup against the Steelers. In a tough matchup this week and with a projection of just 5.2 DK points, Anderson lacks the upside desired in a GPP punt play.
TE – Austin Seferian-Jenkins
A Jets TE caught a pass last week. That’s relevant because it was the first time it happened all season. ASJ has theoretical upside as an athlete, but rostering him is something that people do only when they dislike themselves.
Arizona Cardinals
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Carson Palmer
Palmer didn’t play in Week 5 due to a concussion, but he has cleared the league’s concussion protocol and is fully expected to be back for Week 6. And what a matchup he has: The Jets currently own the worst pass defense in the league, per DVOA. Further, they have a very stout run defense — they rank third against the run this season — meaning they are pretty much the definition of a funnel defense. This is a dream matchup for Palmer and he somehow has seen a -$700 DK Salary Change since the last time he played. He’s now just $6,000 and owns the highest Projected Plus/Minus at +6.2. Of course, he’s in the Monday night game, which means that you’ll have to play in the Thursday-Monday or smaller slates to roster him, but he could definitely pay dividends for those who do.
RB – David Johnson
While the matchup is great for Palmer and the passing game, it’s brutal for DJ on the ground. The Jets have the third-best run defense in the league, and because they’re so awful against the pass it’s likely that the Cardinals will simply not try to test them significantly in that way. That doesn’t mean DJ is unrosterable, though: He has gotten at least four targets and 25 receiving yards in every game this year. He owns 13.38 percent of the Cardinals’ targets in the past four weeks, a number of which some non-WR1s would be envious. He’ll still likely carry ownership in GPPs because he’s David freaking Johnson, but it will be lower than it normally is. Despite the bad matchup, the talented Johnson has the fourth-highest projected ceiling on DK at 26.8 points.
RB – Andre Ellington
Ellington has received exactly one target in the last three games. As mentioned already, the Cardinals likely won’t test the Jets on the ground. Further, their RB targets should solely go to Johnson. Pass on Ellington as usual.
WR – Larry Fitzgerald
After seeing his target share dip in three straight weeks, Fitzgerald’s rate bumped back up last week:
Against the 49ers last week, Fitz was able to haul in six of his eight targets for 81 yards and two touchdowns. He now boasts five touchdowns on the season. This is obviously a dream matchup for him, but it does come with an inflated salary: He’s up at $7,700 on DK this week. He’s a much better value on FD, where he is $7,400, owns a 99 percent Bargain Rating, has a nice +3.6 Projected Plus/Minus, and sports the fifth-highest rating in the Bales Model. He should be very popular in the slates that include the Monday night game.
WR – John Brown
Brown was expected to be the WR1/WR2 for the Cardinals to enter the season, and now he’s finally fulfilling that potential. He owns 21.66 percent of the Cardinals’ targets in the last four games (second to Fitz), and he leads the teams with 28.37 percent of the Air Yards. Brown saw a slight dip last week — as shown in the graph above — but that was with Drew Stanton quarterbacking the team. Brown has shown improved chemistry with Palmer through Week 4 and will look to continue that upward trend in Week 6. At only $4,500 on DraftKings, he is the highest-rated player in the Bales Model (significantly, too). He’s no-brainer if you’re playing in the Monday slates.
WR – Michael Floyd
As one player rises, another falls. Floyd has now seen his target share dip in each week since Week 2, culminating in a season-low 11.11 percent in Week 5. He now owns 17.20 percent of the Cardinals’ targets, although he’s been useless with them. Just last week he turned a puny three targets into literally nothing. He caught zero balls and had zero total yards. He did have 18 combined targets in two previous games prior to last week, so perhaps this was just an example of Stanton not being very good. If that’s the case and Floyd gets back to his high-volume ways in Week 6, he represents an elite pivot play in GPPs from his high-profile, likely higher-owned teammates in Johnson, Fitz, and JoBro.
WR – Jaron Brown
The other Brown isn’t getting a ton of snaps. He did see eight targets in the last two games, but he caught only one of them for seven yards. That just won’t cut it in an offense with a ton of elite options. He has a low projected DK ceiling of 8.5 points and a -0.6 Projected Plus/Minus.
TE – Darren Fells and Jermaine Gresham
These guys aren’t part of the passing game. Neither has a target market share of even six percent in the last four games. Look elsewhere for your tight end.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
