The Week 6 NFL Dashboard
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49ers at Bills
Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers travel to Buffalo this week 7.5-point dogs against the Bills. This game has the second-lowest Vegas total of the week at 44 points, and the 49ers are implied to score a week-low 18.25 points. The Bills are currently implied for 25.75 points.
San Francisco 49ers
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Colin Kaepernick
On the one hand, it was only three years ago that Kaepernick stole the 49ers starting QB job from Alex Smith and led them to Super Bowl XLVII. He was excellent that year, completing 62.4 percent of his passes, posting a 98.3 QB Rating, and boasting 8.6 adjusted yards per pass attempt. It was not stupid to think that he was good — like, really good: ESPN analyst and former NFL QB Ron Jaworski claimed after the season that Kaep “could be one of the greatest quarterbacks ever.”
On the other hand, it’s 2016 and Kaepernick couldn’t beat out Blaine Gabbert for the starting job in the preseason. That might be all you need to know. Predicting Kaep’s on-field performance is nearly impossible, so let’s focus instead on things we do know: His DFS data and his matchup. He is $5,000 (the minimum) on DK and $6,400 on FD; the 49ers are implied for a week-low 18.25 points. He faces a Bills defense that ranks 12th this season, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). At this point, Kaep’s GPP intrigue has more to do with the fact that we haven’t seen him play in a while and less to do with any positive data that we actually have.
RB – Carlos Hyde
And here begins the fun part: How does the move from Gabbert to Kaepernick affect the other 49ers fantasy-relevant players, if at all?
Hyde has been very good so far this season:
And interestingly his DK price is still low at $5,100. As a result, he’s currently the second-highest rated RB in the Bales Model this week. He’ll definitely get the volume: He’s owned 59.02 percent of the 49ers’ rushes in the past four weeks, and that includes QBs — Gabbert has owned 24.59 percent and he’s obviously not a threat to steal rushing plays in Week 6, although Kaep might be. Again, who knows. The Bills have been solid against the run this season, ranking 11th per DVOA, and the 49ers are large dogs. This comes down to how much risk you’re willing to tolerate for a guy who is clearly underpriced; he makes for a very intriguing GPP play.
RB – Shaun Draughn
Draughn got 16 carries and three targets in the first two games of the season but has gotten only four carries and one target in the last two games. He actually finished last week’s game against the Cardinals with -0.1 DK points. That’s impressive. Obviously, he shouldn’t be on your DFS radar right now.
WR – Jeremy Kerley
In the past four games, Kerley has owned 29.46 percent of the 49ers’ targets. For reference, that number in that time frame ranks fourth among all WRs in the NFL — ahead of studs like Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown, and Brandon Marshall. Basically, what I’m saying is that Kerley is one of the best WRs in the NFL.
Joking aside, it’s hard to ignore that amount of volume; he has gotten a combined 22 targets in the last two games and has turned those into 14 receptions for 190 yards and two touchdowns. Those are dreamy numbers for a guy who is only $4,000 on DK and $5,800. Basically, he’s been the Tavon Austin-type of receiver we’ve been targeting because of volume except he’s actually, you know, done things with his volume. This is a tough matchup — again, the Bills rank 11th against the pass and third specifically versus guys in the middle of the field — but Kerley is 1) cheap, 2) seeing volume, and 3) projected to be owned in no more than one percent of lineups. That’s not a completely awful recipe for a GPP dart.
WR – Torrey Smith
Although Kerley owns the largest share of Air Yards in the last four games (29.58 percent), Smith isn’t far behind at 28.24 percent. However, things look grimmer for Smith when we look at his most recent games: In the past two contests, he’s seen only three targets. He turned those into one reception for three puny yards. Suffice it to say, Smith should only be on your DFS radar if you’re a truly daring contrarian.
WR – Quinton Patton
Can I just say “ditto”? OK, fine: Patton has five targets and three receptions in the last two games. Kaepernick is his QB.
TE – Vance McDonald
Per our NFL News feed, the 49ers’ tight ends could hypothetically benefit from the switch to Kaepernick, as Kaep has targeted his TEs on a high 25.8 percent of his passes in the past 12 months. Still, this is a risky play, as the Bills in that same time frame have allowed TEs to score 0.1 DK points below salary-based expectations (per our Plus/Minus metric).
Buffalo Bills
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Tyrod Taylor
Taylor has been relatively efficient (10th in QBR) but isn’t likely to get a lot of volume with the limitations of this offense. That said, his rushing floor is extremely attractive, as he’s averaging 5.2 rushes and 34 yards per game on the ground, fourth in the league. Per our Trends Tool, when Tygod averages between four and six rush attempts per game he has been an absolute stud in his young career:
This week he faces a 49ers defense ranking 19th overall and 13th against the pass per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) but attached to the offense that plays at the fastest-pace in the league (24.14 sec/play). As a home favorite with the second-most Pro Trends of the week, Tygod is a fantastic cash and GPP play in Week 6 and is the No. 2 quarterback in the Levitan Player Model, with a 100 percent Bargain Rating on DK and FantasyLabs ownership projection of two to four percent.
RB – LeSean McCoy
Buffalo relies on rushing for offensive yardage more heavily than any team in the league (44.6 percent) and McCoy has an absolute stranglehold on this backfield with 63.73 percent rush share and 64.7 percent rush share in the red zone. McCoy has high salaries but is still projected to outperform them:
On FD, he is the fourth-most expensive back at $8,200 but still owns a +5.7 Projected Plus/Minus, third highest on the slate. McCoy currently is rated as the No.2 RB in our Cash Model on FD and is tied with David Johnson for the third-highest ceiling. He has more FD Pro Trends (15) than any player. As a home favorite he will be a very chalky play for good reason in both cash games and GPPs against a 49ers team that the aforementioned Johnson dropped a 30-185-2 stat line 0n in Week 5.
RB – Mike Gillislee
Aside from vulturing the odd touchdown and playing just 18.95 percent of the offensive snaps, Gillislee is unlikely to see the field other than to give McCoy a quick break. He has just a 10 percent rushing share in the past four games.
WR – Robert Woods
Woods is the team leader in offensive snaps the past four weeks and largely a non-sexy play with limited upside. He is however 21st in the league in target market share in the last four games. Without Watkins, the options in this passing game have a low floor and ceiling. The 49ers have allowed a +1.7 DK Opponent Plus/Minus to WRs. Per our Trends tool, receivers in comparable spots have manufactured a +1.96 Plus/Minus on 54.3 percent Consistency. Woods is a fine, cheap cash-play on DK this week.
WR – Marquise Goodwin
He has been the furthest thing from efficient, but his targets are deep. The speedster is tied for second on the team in target share at just 18.58 percent in the past four games and is still overwhelmingly first in share of Air Yards at 32.67 percent (21st in the league). If there’s someone who can burn the 49ers deep, it’s Goodwin. He is currently ranked seventh in our Tournament Model, with a 99 percent DK Bargain Rating. He has an ownership projection of zero to one percent in the Millionaire Maker but is still a risky play, considering that he has not topped more than two receptions in a game this year.
WR – Justin Hunter
He managed to turn his only target since joining the Bills into a TD, which is nice for him but meaningless for us. His 1.6-point floor on DK is one of the lowest on the slate. Nothing to see here.
TE – Charles Clay
Clay has a target share of just 18.58 percent in the past four games on 88.7 percent of the snaps. In the past two games he has seen an increased role, averaging a 5-60-0 stat line and six targets in that time span. The 49ers defense is actually fifth against TEs in pass DVOA, but the 49ers offense plays fast and Clay could be afforded extra opportunities to produce. Clay currently holds the No. 1 rating in our Tournament Model on DK and is a fine punt option you could even consider in cash games at just $2900.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
