This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze the relevant players from the best NFL games of the week. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis by looking at the dynamics of expected game flow, pace, Vegas lines, and advanced analytics.
New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions
Since they signed Drew Brees in 2006, the Saints have never finished outside the top-six in total yards, top-12 in points scored, top-10 in total plays, top-eight in yards per drive, top-10 in plays per drive, and top-12 in points per drive. They have also been top-five in pass volume 10 times in the Brees era, and so far this season their 62.65 pass play percentage is eighth-highest. At home, in the Coors Field of Fantasy Football, the Saints have passed for a league-leading 73.02 percent of their offensive plays. They also play fast: Last year they were second in neutral pace (Football Outsiders), and in 2017 they have been the sixth-fastest (29.27 seconds per play).
Jim Caldwell’s offenses skew heavily toward the pass. In his seven full years as head coach or offensive coordinator, never have they been outside the top-12 in pass/run ratio; they have an average rank of 5.3 of 32 teams. Over the last three years, they’ve been 25.7 of 32 in pace, which in turn has caused the team to finish in the top-10 in passing attempts only once in the last three years. The Lions advance the ball through the air and take their time doing it. That has continued in 2017: Detroit’s 60.63 percentage of pass plays is above-average, and the team is running plays at the sixth-slowest pace (32.64).
The over/under sits at 50.0 points — highest on the main slate — but the Saints’ implied total of 27.75 is only fifth-highest. Vegas expects some lopsided games this week — four teams are currently touchdown or greater favorites — so it makes sense to target a game like this that could shoot out with a small two-point spread.
Brees is in unfamiliar territory, ranking outside the top-15 in passing yards this season. Even though he’s thrown for 300 yards just once this season, this should be a solid bounce-back spot against a Lions defense that has allowed the fourth-most passing yards through five weeks. The passing options on both sides of the ball will likely make for some chalky stacks, so the best way to differentiate may be through unique lineup construction and/or game stacks. Brees has a fantasy points correlation value of 0.46 with Michael Thomas and a 0.58 ownership correlation. Adding either Mark Ingram or Alvin Kamara could be wise given their increased roles, but another way to differentiate this stack could be to roll it back with Golden Tate on the other side of the ball. Here are the correlation values for actual fantasy points versus the ownership values (based on positions):
On the surface, this definitely looks like a game to stack, but paying up for Brees over Matthew Stafford could lead to a more unique lineup construction than simply rolling out something like Stafford-Tate-Thomas. After lineups lock, visit our DFS Contests Dashboard and use our Stack Seeker tool to identify the top contrarian stack of the week.
Drew Brees, QB
Per our Trends tool, in the Superdome Brees averages 25.42 DraftKings PPG with a +5.80 Plus/Minus and a 72.0 percent Consistency Rating. He currently owns the highest ceiling projection at the position.
Michael Thomas, WR
His ownership will likely be held in check by a perceived tough matchup against Darius Slay, but the Lions corner has been beatable this season. Over the last three weeks, Devin Funchess (7-53-1), Stefon Diggs (5-98-0), and Julio Jones (7-91-0) all posted respectable stat lines while running the majority of their routes against Slay.
Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara, RB
Per our Week 6 Market Share Report, Ingram has out-snapped Kamara 75-43 over the past two games and has out-touched him 34-20. The usage breakdown without Adrian Peterson remains to be seen, but what we do know is the Lions defense is ranked fifth at defending the run and third at defending running backs in the passing game (Football Outsiders).
Matthew Stafford, QB
The Saints defense has allowed the sixth-highest passer rating this year (101.2) and has been top-10 in DraftKings PPG allowed to quarterbacks in each of the last three seasons. That said, New Orleans has given up just six passing touchdowns this season, and Stafford has yet to throw for 300 yards.
Golden Tate, WR
Tate’s 23 percent target share is top-20 in the NFL, and his four yards per target after the catch is the third-highest at the position.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
Historically, Pat Shurmur likes to be pass-heavy, coordinating offenses that are top-12 in passing attempts in each of his three seasons. Injuries to Sam Bradford have made that difficult; so far, the Vikings are 21st in pass play percentage (55.41). The team moved at the league’s ninth-slowest pace in 2016, but Shurmur had units play at a top-10 pace during stints with the Rams and Browns. He also coordinated THE top-paced offense for his three seasons (2013-15) in Philadelphia under Chip Kelly. It’s not surprising that the Vikings have chosen to pick up the pace this year, running plays at the eighth-fastest rate in the league through five weeks.
The Packers have finished outside the top-10 in scoring only once in the Aaron Rodgers era (2015, the Jordy-less season). So far in 2017, the Packers have the fourth-highest percentage of pass plays (65.72 percent) and have run at the 10th-slowest pace. Rodgers has recently gained a big edge in the MVP race, and we know the offense will continue to run through him.
The Packers have crept back toward the top of the list in terms of Super Bowl odds and are three-point road favorites against the Vikings in Week 6. The 46.5-point over/under is just outside the top tier. Per our Week 6 Vegas Report, no team has hit the over in every game, although the Packers are one of five teams to go 4-1.
The Rodgers–Jordy Nelson stack usually carries significant ownership. Pivoting to Rodgers-Davante Adams could make sense, given Minnesota’s likelihood to shadow the Packers’ top option with Xavier Rhodes. Rodgers has a fantasy points correlation value of 0.41 with Adams and a 0.46 ownership correlation (per our NFL Correlations page). Pricing comes out before Monday Night Football, so Jerick McKinnon is looking like the uber-chalk in Week 6. However, rolling back your Rodgers stacks with McKinnon could be more unique. Here are the correlation values for actual fantasy points versus the ownership values (based on positions):
The actual points correlation values are still positive with Rodgers and McKinnon, but opposing RBs provide a much lower ownership correlation than an opponent’s WR1 (0.25), WR2 (0.21), or TE1 (0.21).
Aaron Rodgers, QB
In 18 career starts against this division rival, Rodgers has averaged 252.9 passing yards, 2.3 total touchdowns, and 0.3 interceptions. However, the Vikings have allowed the sixth-fewest DraftKings PPG to quarterbacks this year, and over the past four years Rodgers has been owned at a higher rate on the road (despite significant home/road splits).
Davante Adams, WR
He showed little (if any) ill effects from his concussion last week, and his 30 percent target share of air yards trails only Nelson’s (32 percent) for the team lead.
Jerick McKinnon, RB
In the first full game since the team lost Dalvin Cook for the season, McKinnon out-snapped Latavius Murray 47-22 and out-touched him 15-8 in the second half. At just $4,100 on DraftKings, McKinnon could be a strong source of cheap volume.
Stefon Diggs, WR
Be sure and keep an eye on our NFL Week 6 Injury Dashboard for an update on his groin, but if healthy Diggs and the Minnesota passing game is an intriguing pivot away from McKinnon. Removing last week — he was clearly hobbled — Diggs owns the seventh-highest market share of air yards in the league and still owns 27.8 percent of the team red zone targets.
Good luck, and be sure to read our positional breakdowns later in the week!
