Several top teams square off with high-powered matchups, mixing up-tempo pace and efficient offenses in Week 6, with four games above a 50-point total.
Check out a few games to target in Week 6, and a few you might want to proceed with caution.
Also, don’t forget to check out our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models.
Games to Target
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
According to PFF, two offenses in the top 10 square off in a Week 6 matchup, opening at a 51.5-point total. After a 47-42 shootout win over the Cleveland Browns, the Los Angeles Chargers head east to face the Baltimore Ravens. The Chargers, led by Justin Herbert, ran 70 plays, the most on the week, averaging a 63%/38% run-to-pass split against the Cleveland Browns, who rank third in defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders. The Chargers also call the most plays in the league, averaging 71 plays per game (According to the RotoViz Snaps and Pace App).
Expect the Chargers, who are the fifth-fastest team in the league, averaging 25.2 seconds per snap, to rely on the receiving corps of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Jared Cook to keep the matchup close, listed as three-point underdogs against a Ravens Defense ranked 14th in pass DOVA.
The high-powered Ravens offense, led by Lamar Jackson, may have an easier time moving the ball down the field, facing a Chargers defense that ranks 21st according to PFF. A dual-threat option, Jackson methodically moves the Ravens offense down the field, playing at the 10th slowest pace, averaging 27.7 seconds per snap as part of a balanced 52%/48% pass-to-run split.
The Chargers’ weak run defense, which grades as the 29th worst, should allow Jackson plenty of opportunities to run, with the quarterback averaging 6.64 yards per carry.
Cleveland Browns at Arizona Cardinals
The Browns and Cardinals are two of the more effective teams in the league, grading out as the third-best and seventh-best offenses, respectively, facing off in a matchup opening at 50.5-points.
Cleveland has averaged 69 plays per game, the ninth most in the league, using a run-heavy 47%53% pass-to-run split. In a split backfield, both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have tremendous upside. They’ll face a poor Cardinals run defense that ranks 31st, according to PFF. Through the first five weeks of the season, Chubb leads the Browns with a 50% share of carries, and he has had 20 or more touches in three consecutive weeks. He should see the bulk of carries, especially if the Browns depend on their slow 28.3 seconds per snap pace to run out the clock.
Although the Browns rank as the third-best defense (PFF), Kyler Murray leads a high-powered offense with the second-highest no-huddle rate at 30%. With a distributed receiving corps of Deandre Hopkins, A.J. Green, and Rondale Moore, Murray ranks as the most consistent quarterback in the league, completing 75% of his passes and should lean on the Cardinals 54%/46% pass-to-run split to keep the Week 6 matchup competitive.
Proceed with Caution
Las Vegas at Denver Broncos
The Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos both rank toward the bottom of the league in pace, averaging 26.8 seconds and 30.2 seconds per snap, respectively. According to PFF, both defenses also grade out in the top five in the league, with the Raiders grading out as the second-best and Broncos the third-best.
In a matchup with a 44-point total at open, this AFC West matchup looks to be a slogfest, especially with quarterback Derek Carr and the underwhelming Raiders offense running into problems against a Broncos defense. Despite calling the fourth-most plays this season, averaging 71 plays per game, it’s hard to imagine the Raiders piling up points in this game, which is also reflected in their abysmal 20-point implied team total.
Keep an eye on tight end Darren Waller’s output as the Raiders’ lead pass-catcher with a 24% target share. In the last four games, Waller has been targeted at least seven times in each game.
Even grading out as the second-best defense, a weak spot in the Raiders defense appears to be stopping the running game, giving more opportunity to running back Melvin Gordon, who leads the Broncos backfield with a 46% share of carries. Gordon should also benefit with additional carries to run out the clock if the Broncos, who are 3.5-point favorites, are ahead toward the end of the game.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
At 43.5 points at open, this AFC South matchup is the lowest on the slate, pitting two offenses ranked toward the bottom in the league, according to PFF.
The Texans rank 30th in offense and face a tough Indianapolis Colts defense that ranks as the 12th-best. The Texans call the sixth-fewest plays in the league, led by quarterback Davis Mills, despite playing at the eighth-fastest pace, averaging a 25.1 second per snap.
With a 55%/45% pass-to-run split, look for Brandin Cooks to be the main target for the rookie Mills, seeing 33% of the target share. As 10-point underdogs, The Texans will need to improve their passing game in what looks to be a weak spot for the Colts, who rank as the 27th-worst coverage defense according to PFF.
Carson Wentz and the Colts look to have a favorable matchup against a Houston Texans offense that grades out as the eighth-worst in the league. Running the ninth-slowest pace with a 27.8 second per snap rate may prove to be a benefit to the Colts later in the game. Typically using a 59%/41% pass-to-run split, expect a more run-heavy play calling script if they’re ahead, signaling more workload for Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack, who combine to see more than 88% of the workload in the Colts running game.
