The weekly Funnel Defense Ratings uses advanced data to analyze situations in which teams are more likely to pass or run than they usually do. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
Last week I introduced a new funnel metric; see that piece for the explanation in how I created it. Before we jump into Week 6 funnel ratings, let’s first revisit the ones from Week 5 and how they fared. I’d rather be transparent than blindly chug along with this piece all year assuming it works. Even if the metric isn’t predictive, that would be useful information in itself and suggest the idea of a ‘funnel defense’ is overrated. Perhaps that would mean that teams mostly stick to their offensive philosophies and are less affected by defenses than they should be.
Week 5 Funnel Performance
In examining last week’s data, I looked at the offensive pass rating (defined in that introductory piece), defensive pass funnel rating, and the total pass funnel rating for each team. To put it simply, a team with a high pass funnel rating — or, inversely, a high run funnel rating — should have their offensive production ‘funneled’ into the pass or run. I took these metrics and then correlated them with the team’s actual pass percentage from Week 5. Here’s the table of that information and then the correlation values.
- Offensive Pass Rating: 0.40
- Defensive Pass Funnel: -0.15
- Pass Funnel Rating: 0.18
The first thing I’ll note is that this is a very small sample of teams — 22, to be exact. That said, the correlation coefficient of 0.18 with the pass funnel rating isn’t very high. In fact, the correlation between Week 5 pass percentage and a team’s offensive pass rating was over twice as strong as the correlation with pass funnel rating. That means, at least in Week 5, that incorporating defensive data — how much a team should be funneled toward a particular aspect of offense — lowered the predictive value of the metric. Let’s dive into that a bit.
The two teams with the highest pass percentage in Week 5 were the Arizona Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers:
- Cardinals: 44 passes, 14 rushes
- Steelers: 55 passes, 20 rushes
The first one makes sense: The Cardinals had the third-highest pass funnel rating of 68.44, as they were a very pass-heavy team and faced an Eagles squad that was fairly neutral in terms of a funnel defense. The Steelers, on the other hand, passed a week-high 55 times – yes, FIFTY-FIVE TIMES – against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were by far the strongest run funnel defense in the league, ranking first against the pass and dead last against the run in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Now, I get what people might say about this game.
- The Steelers were trailing and had to throw to catch up.
- The Jaguars aren’t really a run funnel defense, and they’re actually elite in both areas.
Point 1 is fair if you’re discussing just the end of the game, but not so much if you’re looking at the whole picture. In the Steelers’ first drive, which ended with a field goal, Ben Roethlisberger threw on his first two plays. Then Le’Veon Bell rushed for three straight plays, gaining 10 yards on his first rush. Two plays later, the Steelers were up 3-0. On their next drive, they ran 11 plays, three of which were Bell runs. That drive ended in one of Roethlisberger’s FIVE interceptions.
The Steelers coming in had a 54.5 offensive pass rating, which means they were mostly balanced but very slightly leaned toward the pass. For them to try to attack this Jaguars defense — at the beginning of the game and the end of the game — through the air was idiotic. The Jaguars boast two of the best cornerbacks in the league in Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, who were huge reasons the Jaguars had the No. 1 ranked pass defense. Even if you believe Point 2 above, you still have to deal with what we knew for certain: Ramsey, Bouye, and company are nearly impossible to throw on.
Here’s my point in all of this: A funnel metric, no matter how amazing it is, probably cannot predict the incompetence (or ‘game theory strategy’) of coaches: 55 pass attempts. Come on. In all of this ranting, I didn’t even mention that the Steelers have the best running back in the league.
Week 6 Funnel Rating
So last week when I said my metric did not yet account for Vegas data — teams are more likely to be pass-heavy when down and run-heavy when up — I did not yet realize that coaching stubbornness was also an important factor in offensive tendencies. Now we know. Anyway, onto Week 6.
Two of the four teams with the highest pass funnel ratings are the Arizona Cardinals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, both of whom have been terrible against the pass this season. The Cardinals and Bucs face each other in a game with a middling 45.5-point over/under, and if this game is indeed very pass-heavy it could easily shoot out. There’s some value here in guaranteed prize pools: In a week in which everyone is banking on the Saints-Lions game, going heavier on fast-paced and pass-heavy teams in the Cardinals and Bucs could lead to a ton of leverage in tournaments.
The most intriguing funnel defense of the year is the Denver Broncos, who are notorious for their “No Fly Zone” elite secondary. That said, they are actually a very strong pass funnel through five weeks, ranking much stronger in the run game than in the pass game. In Week 2 they held Ezekiel Elliott to the worst game of his young career. It’s unlikely they’re poor in their secondary, and they still have an elite reputation, but I’m curious about how the New York Giants — one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league — chooses to attack them. This situation is made more complicated after season-ending injuries to Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall in Week 5. Evan Engram, one time?
On the other side, the Chicago Bears and Baltimore Ravens face each other, and they have two of the four top run funnel ratings this week. The Ravens have the second-best pass defense in the league this season behind the Jaguars, and that includes the London game in which they allowed three touchdowns to the Blake Bortles–Marcedes Lewis combination. The Bears likely would prefer to be run-heavy anyway given that rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky is making his second career start. If you want to bank on heavy run volume, this is a game to target.
The biggest difference between a team’s pass/run rating and a defensive team’s pass/run funnel rating belongs to the LA Rams and Atlanta Falcons. The Rams have been pass-heavy this season but face a Jags team that, again, boasts the best pass defense in the league. Perhaps head coach Sean McVay will notice the five picks Roethlisberger threw last week and opt to give a heavier workload to Todd Gurley instead of force Jared Goff to have first-year flashbacks. Meanwhile, the Falcons are run-heavy but face a Miami defense that is the strongest pass funnel in the league. Atlanta as a home favorite is typically a spot to target Devonta Freeman instead of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, but perhaps the matchup dictates the opposite this week.
And the Steelers? Who knows what they’ll do. They gave Bell 35 carries in Week 4 and Ben 55 pass attempts in Week 5. This metric suggests they should be fairly balanced in their attack, but I’m assuming they’ll funnel themselves into something.
