Week 4 officially exposed fantasy players’ two new best friends in cornerbacks Perrish Cox and Shareece Wright and solidified Minnesota as a defense to avoid. It is important to discover positive fantasy matchups early in the season in order to maximize returns throughout the year. Let’s break down this week’s notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
The Studs
Antonio Brown vs. Darrelle Revis and the Jets
Revis (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday’s meeting with Brown. However, DFS players should hope he plays, as Revis is currently graded as Pro Football Focus’ 14th-worst qualifying corner on the season.
This Jets secondary has allowed the sixth-most passing yards this season. According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average), the Jets rank 31st against the pass. Brown is second in the NFL in targets and third in receptions. He is also tied for first with four touchdowns on the season. Brown is now $9,800 on DraftKings but is still the fourth-highest rated receiver in Adam Levitan’s Player Model.
Julio Jones vs. Broncos Secondary
The Broncos secondary is a downgrade for any wide receiver they face. Last Sunday, Mike Evans saw 11 targets but managed to catch only five of them for 59 yards. They rank second against opposing WR1s according to FO DVOA. Both Aqib Talib and Chris Harris are ranked in the top-six at the cornerback position according to PFF. Julio should see time against both of them on Sunday. Denver has allowed a -1.4 Plus/Minus to opposing wide receivers on FanDuel in the past year.
The silver lining is that Julio is PFF’s number-one overall wide receiver on the season, and he can put up gaudy numbers against any defense. As such, he’s an interesting tournament play with FantasyLabs projected ownership of under 10 percent on both sites.
A.J. Green vs. Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne
Green spends the majority of his time at LWR and RWR and will be covered by Carr and Claiborne on the outside. In his two games this year against bottom-12 secondaries (per DVOA), Green averaged 11 catches for 176.5 yards. The Dallas secondary is ranked 24th overall and neither Carr nor Claiborne rank in the top-25 at the position according to PFF.
Update: Tyler Eifert is questionable for Week 5.
The return of Tyler Eifert should only help to make this offense more efficient and take focus off of Green. They currently rank last in red-zone touchdown percentage. Green has eight DK Pro Trends and the third-highest projected ceiling on DraftKings.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Green Bay Secondary
The Green Bay secondary has been abysmal without Sam Shields. They have allowed 182 yards receiving to Stefon Diggs and 205 yards to Marvin Jones in their two most recent games. Neither of those two players are as talented as Beckham. According to FO DVOA, they rank 31st against WR1s and are allowing 49.2 percent more production than league average.
Much has been made about Odell’s recent performances, but he still holds a 28 percent market share of targets in New York. Beckham is also coming off a game against a defense that may be the best in the NFL. The Green Bay defense grades very highly against the run (ranking second per DVOA) and have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game this season. This should force the Giants to be more pass-heavy in Week 5.
Beckham is the fourth-most expensive WR on both sites, but he has the best matchup of the top-priced receivers. He has yet to score a touchdown this season but is a great bet to score this week. Beckham has eight Pro Trends on DraftKings this week, one of which is his large drop in salary:
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Xavier Rhodes
This defense is the real deal. Since Rhodes’ return, the Vikings have allowed three catches for 23 yards to opposing WR1s (on 10 targets). Rhodes has been shadowing opposing WR1s and should spend his Sunday on Hopkins.
Not only does Hopkins have a horrendous matchup ahead of him, but he’s been losing volume to Will Fuller on the season. After a good performance against Tennessee, look for this entire offense to take a step back against Minnesota.
Notable Upgrades
DeSean Jackson vs. Shareece Wright
Wright is Pro Football Focus’ 87th-ranked cornerback on the season (of 112 qualifying CBs). He just allowed back-to-back multi-touchdown games to Michael Crabtree and Allen Robinson. It is possible that the Ravens use Jimmy Smith to shadow DJax, but they haven’t used Smith in a shadow role since Week 1.
While DeSean has a great matchup this week, it is important to note that he received only two targets in Week 4; Jordan Reed was the focal point of the offense. However, there may not be a better WR matchup currently than against Wright. Baltimore has allowed a +1.7 Plus/Minus to opposing wide receivers on FanDuel in the past year.
DeVante Parker vs. Perrish Cox
Will Fuller spent the majority of Week 4 running routes against Cox, catching seven of nine targets for 81 yards and a touchdown. Cox currently ranks as PFF’s fourth-worst cornerback on the season. If there is a better matchup than Shareece Wright, it is probably Perrish Cox.
According to the NFL Matchups Tool, Parker should draw the majority of his coverage against Cox. Kenny Stills should draw Jason McCourty on the other side. McCourty has been very good this season, grading as PFF’s 17th-ranked cornerback and he was crucial in limiting Hopkins in their matchup.
Notable Matchups
Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper vs. Trevor Williams and Casey Hayward
Update: With the news of Jason Verrett‘s season-ending ACL injury and Brandon Flowers likely to miss another week, Hayward is the only starting cornerback left. Hayward has played exceptionally well and has experience moving around the formation; it’s possible that he could shadow Cooper on Sunday.
