The Week 5 NFL Dashboard
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Patriots at Browns
This game has a current total of 46.5 points. The Patriots are heavy 10.5-point road favorites implied by Vegas to score 28.5 points, the highest total on the slate. The Browns are implied to score 18 points at home in a game that could get ugly quick.
New England Patriots
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Tom Brady
Welcome to #AngryTom week. I could probably end the blurb right there, but let’s start with this: Last year, Brady finished fourth in passer rating (102.2), third in pass attempts (623), third in passing yards (4,762), and first in passing touchdowns (36). And now he’s facing the 0-4 Browns.
Per our Trends Tool, all the starting QBs to play against Cleveland have earned positive Plus/Minus values.
For good reason, in our Player Models Brady has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of 17-20 percent on DK. He has the second-highest ceiling of the week and is ready to make a statement against a lowly Browns defense that has allowed the third-most passing touchdowns (10) this year. Even on the road, Brady is definitely in play in cash games and guaranteed prize pools.
RB – LeGarrette Blount
Even with poor game script last week, Blount still saw more snaps (54 percent) than James White (38 percent). He saw just 13 carries but is still third in the league in rush attempts (88), rushing yards (352), and rushing share (67.69 percent). The offense is likely to return to its former pass-heavy ways with Brady’s return, which in theory could limit Blount’s upside, but he will also likely be in the position to score more touchdowns now. Blount is a tournament-play only because of his uncertain role in Brady’s offense, but he has two-touchdown upside as a heavy favorite against the Browns.
Blount (hip) is officially questionable for Week 5 but expected to play. Backup bruiser Brandon Bolden has been ruled out, so behind Blount is only White and D.J. Foster.
RB – James White
White has been almost entirely dependent on the passing game for production with just 6.25 touches per game in 2016. Cleveland has given up the seventh-most rushing yards (104 per game) this year to opposing running backs but the eighth-fewest receiving yards (26.25 per game). White has points-per-reception appeal with the third highest Projected Plus/Minus of all RBs on DK, but he’s nothing more than a tournament play as a heavy favorite until we see him return to his 2015 form.
WR – Julian Edelman
Edelman leads the Patriots in target market share (24.56 percent) and is set to go off on a Cleveland defense that per Football Outsiders ranks 30th in defending No. 1 WRs. Per our Trends Tool, players with similar salaries, projected points, and target market shares have performed 3.06 points above expectation. Edelman is fantastic for cash games and GPPs this week. He is currently the No. 1 WR in our Cash Model on FanDuel, where he holds a 95 percent Bargain Rating and the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus (+3.3) for Week 5.
Edelman (foot) is officially questionable. He was added to the team’s injury report on Thursday but did get in a limited practice on Friday. Edelman has battled foot injuries in the past, so this situation should be monitored.
WR – Chris Hogan
Even after being held without a catch on two targets last week, Hogan still leads the team in market share of Air Yards (27.95 percent). Unfortunately, Hogan just isn’t getting volume: He’s turned his 15 opportunities into eight receptions for 122 yards and a touchdown — but he’s gotten only 15 opportunities. Still, you could do worse for a flyer in tournaments, as he has big-play upside despite his dangerously low floor.
WR – Danny Amendola
While it is highly unlikely Amendola will repeat his Week 2 multi-touchdown performance, he does currently own 33.3 percent of the passing targets inside the 20-yard line. He’s a GPP-only play on a week-to-week basis, but he definitely will get snaps and be involved in this offense. You can’t entirely write off a guy who gets a third of his team’s red-zone targets and will owned at zero to one percent in an offense Vegas expects to go off.
TE – Rob Gronkowski
With just one catch in his first two games back, Gronk (hamstring) has not progressed the way the Pats hoped he would. Gronk is expected to play during the Patriots’ Week 5 matchup against the Browns, but he may still be on a snap count. That said, how many snaps does he really need to go off against Cleveland, which ranks 28th defending tight ends this season (per Football Outsiders)?
The Browns have also allowed the second-most FD points (16.7) to TEs and Gronk is currently projected at just five to eight percent ownership in the Sunday Million. Far and away the top-rated FD TE in our Tournament Model, Gronk could be a fantastic GPP play if there are no setbacks this week.
Gronk is listed as questionable for Week 5. He has been limited in practice all week but is expected to play. The only question is whether he actually plays.
TE – Martellus Bennett
Bennett has earned Pro Football Focus’ second-highest overall grade among all tight ends this season and owns a 17.54 percent target share (second on the team). He’s posted a +5.85 Plus/Minus and averaged 13.08 DraftKings points through four weeks. Bennett is still priced at $3700 on DK with a 99 percent Bargain Rating. He has six DK Pro Trends and could be a nice low-owned pivot in GPPs, especially if Gronk is still limited.
Cleveland Browns
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Cody Kessler
Kessler has proven to be a somewhat serviceable quarterback in his two starts. However, he has also shown that he has ball security issues, with three fumbles and an interception. Kessler is yet to throw for 250 yards and has only thrown one touchdown.
With limited pass-catching talent and going against a Patriots defense that is fresh off a soul-crushing loss, Kessler faces his biggest test yet. He probably won’t pass the test. Kessler is a bottom-five QB in the Bales Player Model.
RB – Isaiah Crowell
Crowell has quietly been one of the NFL’s best RBs this season. Graded as PFF’s third-best RB, Crowell is now averaging 6.4 yards per carry and has averaged more than five YPC in every game this season. He has also topped 100 yards rushing in two of four games and has a touchdown in three of four.
This week he faces off against a Patriots defense that held LeSean McCoy to 3.7 YPC but allowed him to catch six of six targets for 38 yards and a touchdown. With the Browns projected to be playing from behind, Crowell is a risk, even though 56 percent of his carries have come while the Browns have trailed. Fortunately for Crow, after only seeing four targets over the first four weeks, he saw four targets against Washington.
Quietly, the Patriots defense has allowed a +1.4 DK Plus/Minus to RBs over the last 16 games, and Crow has a 90 percent DK Bargain Rating.
RB – Duke Johnson Jr.
While Crowell has been receiving all the credit, Duke has quietly been playing well over the last two weeks. He has 19 carries for 122 yards in that time, averaging 6.4 YPC. He has also caught 11 of 15 targets since Kessler has taken over. In a game in which the Browns are expected to trail, Johnson could be very busy in the passing game. He has graded out as PFF’s sixth-best receiving RB.
Aided by the full PPR scoring on DK, Dike has seven Pro Trends and a Projected Plus/Minus of +5.3.
WR – Terrelle Pryor Sr.
In Week 4, Pryor continued his 2016 onslaught by turning nine targets into five receptions, 46 yards, and a touchdown. He saw less ‘gadget’ work, spending most of his day at WR. Notably, Pryor spent most of his day in Josh Norman‘s coverage, PFF’s No. 11 cornerback. The big positive is that Pryor continued to dominate targets in the Browns passing game. He has now seen 29.55 percent of the team targets after four weeks. Until Corey Coleman returns, there is little reason to believe his target domination will diminish.
Fresh off of allowing Robert Woods to catch seven of 10 targets for 89 yards, the Patriots secondary doesn’t have a single cornerback graded higher than 66th by PFF. Pryor probably won’t go off against the Pats — over the last 16 games they’ve allowed only +0.4 FD and +0.7 DK Opponent Plus/Minus values to WRs — but Pryor should have the opportunity to rack up PPR points in garbage time if nothing else.
WR – Ricardo Louis
Louis technically operated as the WR2 in Week 4, but unfortunately that only meant seeing five targets. For now, there is very little volume at the WR position beyond that which goes to Pryor. Louis is the minimum price on both DK and FD this week for good reason.
WR – Andrew Hawkins
Hawkins caught three of three targets last week, but three targets is not enough to put together meaningful fantasy production. Until Hawkins establishes a bigger role, he is not going to be fantasy relevant.
TE – Gary Barnidge
Encouragingly, Barnidge has now seen 13 targets over his first two games with Kessler. This week he faces a NE defense that ranks 21st against the tight end according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. With their low ranking against the position, they are allowing a +2.3 DK Opponent Plus/Minus to TEs. Like Pryor, Barnidge should also have an opportunity to pick up some garbage time PPR points.
News Updates
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