Week 5 is shaping up as an exciting slate, with five games above a 50-point total, with high-powered offenses in ideal situations.
Check out a few games to target in Week 5, and a few you might want to proceed with caution.
Also, don’t forget to check out our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models.
Note: this article will focus on the Week 5 NFL DFS main slate.
Games to Target
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
The Giants-Cowboys game currently has the highest total on the slate at 52 points. The Dallas Cowboys, rank as the No. 1 offense according to PFF. Squaring off against their NFC East rival New York Giants in a matchup that looks to have lightning-fast speed and shootout potential.
The Cowboys, coming off a 36-28 win over the Carolina Panthers, are one of the more efficient teams in the league. Dallas ranks ninth in plays called, averaging 69 plays per game, using a balanced 54%/46% pass-to-run split (According to the RotoViz NFL Pace App).
Dak Prescott should have no problem moving the ball down the field, facing a Giants defense ranked 27th in DVOA. Look for Prescott to involve his more concentrated weapons in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb in the Cowboys’ play calling, having a strong correlation to his WR1 and WR2, with a correlation coefficient of 0.48 and 0.28, respectively.
Aside from the concentrated receiving corps, look for running back Ezekiel Elliot to see a considerable share of carries in an ideal matchup against a Giants defense ranked 26th in rushing DVOA. As seven-point home favorites, Elliott should see an increase in production as the Cowboys will likely run out the clock toward the end of the game.
The Giants should also keep the foot on the pedal, ranked as the 10th-fastest team in the league, running a play every 25 seconds. They also lead the league in no-huddle rate at 36%. Using a pass-heavy 68%/32% pass-to-run play-calling scheme, Daniel Jones should involve weapons, Kenny Golladay, John Ross and Kadarius Toney as likely targets in the receiving corps, especially with Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton dealing with hamstring injuries.
Golladay and Toney combined for 16 targets in the Week 4 win over the New Orleans Saints, catching a combined 12 passes for more than 180 yards, and should benefit against a Dallas Cowboys defense that grades out as the 16th, according to PFF. Running back Saquon Barkley should also factor into the passing game, seeing six targets in the Week 4 win.
With the Giants likely playing from behind, Jones should rely on his receiving corps and no-huddle play-calling tendencies in hopes to wear down the Cowboys’ defense.
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers
According to PFF, two of the top-graded offenses square off in a Week 5 matchup, opening with a 48.5-point total, but it has since been bet down to 46.5. It’ll be interesting to see if this total starts to creep back up as the week progresses.
Cleveland, coming off a 14-7 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, ran 71 playson Sunday, which was the third-most on the week. The Browns used a run-skewed 49%/51% pass-to-run split. Despite the lackluster performance in Week 4, Baker Mayfield should continue to involve lead wide receiver, Odell Beckham. In the Week 4 loss, Beckham saw 22% of the Browns’ target share, catching two passes for 27 yards.
A week spot looks to be the Chargers’ difficulty stopping the run, ranked 25th in rushing DVOA, giving way to what looks to be more opportunities for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to see added production in the offense. In a similar matchup against the 23rd-ranked Minnesota Viking rush defense, Chubb and Hunt combined for 35 rushing attempts for 169 yards and one touchdown. The Browns are currently one-point dogs and should continue to lean on their dual-option backfield.
Justin Herbert and the Chargers rank third in plays called, averaging 72 plays per game after the first month of action. Preferring to use a pass-heavy 67%/33% pass-to-run split, expect the bulk of targets to go toward Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Jared Cook. Allen, who leads the receiving corps with a 27% target share, has seen 10 or more targets in three of the first four games of the year and should see a full allotment of looks. Meanwhile, the Browns’ top-ranked rush defense will look to contain Austin Ekeler’s production in the backfield.
Proceed with Caution
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers
With a total of 40 points, the lowest on the slate, the Week 5 matchup between the Denver Broncos leaves a lot to be desired. Both the Broncos and Steelers rank toward the bottom in plays called per game, with the Broncos ranked 30th and Steelers ranked 19th. According to PFF, the Week 5 matchup appears to be a showcase of defensive talent, with the Broncos ranked as the seventh-best and Steelers as the 15th-best.
With Teddy Bridgewater under center, the Broncos are also one of the slowest teams in the league, calling a play every 30.2 seconds. Using a slightly skewed 56%/44% pass-to-run split, Bridgewater should have some success throwing the ball through the air against the 22nd-ranked Steelers pass defense, according to Football Outsiders. Combined with a tough rushing defense, ranked seventh in DVOA, the Steelers might limit running back Melvin Gordon’s production, causing a headache in the backfield.
For the Steelers, the Week 5 matchup looks to be difficult all-around for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, facing a seventh-ranked DVOA Denver Broncos squad. With a tough pass and rush defense, it appears upside might also be limited to the Steelers’ receiving corps of JuJu Smith-Schuester, Dionte Johnson and Chase Claypool, who combine for a 68% target share. Rookie running back Najee Harris could also have difficulty getting through the stout Broncos defense, despite being on the field for 93% of the Steelers’ offensive snaps (According to FantasyPros Snap Count Leader Tool).
New England Patriots at Houston Texans
In another game this week with a 40-point total, the Patriots and Texans matchup looks like a snooze fest. According to PFF, the Patriots and Texans rank 23rd and 25th in defense. Both teams also rank toward the bottom in overall grades, with New England ranking 24th and Houston ranking 31st, respectively.
Both offenses have a lot to be desired, too, featuring two rookie quarterbacks in Mac Jones and Davis Mills. The Patriots and Texans grade out as 22nd-worst and 32nd-worst offenses, according to PFF. Surprisingly, both offenses rank in the top half in pace and skew toward a more pass-friendly play-calling scheme.
In concentrated offenses, look for Jones to use Jakobi Meyers as the primary weapon. Meyers leads the team with a 25% target share, seeing nine or more targets in three of the first four weeks of the season. On the Houston side, look for Brandin Cooks to command the bulk of targets with a team-leading 37% of the Texans’ target share, but he may not have a productive outing facing the second-ranked Patriots pass defense.
Photo Credit: Tom Pennington/Getty Images
Pictured: Dak Prescott
