The Vegas Report provides a quick snapshot of the year-to-date Vegas trends and their daily fantasy implications for the week’s slate of NFL games. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
We’re four weeks into the NFL season (minus the Redskins-Chiefs game on Monday night). We’re at the point where the noise has almost separated itself from the signal. With any given trend it’s hard to know if what we see is representative, but it’s worth diving into the data and analyzing what we find. A four-week sample in many instances is large enough to make some definitive statements. With that in mind, I’ve collected all the point spreads and game totals for Weeks 1-4 and put them next to the production data so we can see how teams have done vis-à-vis Vegas to this point in the season.
Vegas Plus/Minus
I’ve created a Vegas Plus/Minus metric — similar to our proprietary daily fantasy Plus/Minus metric — that compares actual production with expected (or implied) production. For instance, the Cardinals (based on the over/unders and point spreads) were implied for an average of 24.25 points per game (PPG) in Weeks 1-4, but they scored only 18.5 PPG, resulting in a Vegas Plus/Minus of -5.75. Additionally, they failed to hit their Vegas-implied expectations in all four weeks, giving them four implied ‘losses’ on the year.
On the season, the NFL is 56-68 when it comes to hitting implied team totals. While Weeks 3-4 (21-11, 14-16) were collectively positive, on the whole the league has underperformed expectations early in the campaign.
We have two teams this year yet to hit their implied total in any game.
- Arizona Cardinals: 0-4, -5.75
- Miami Dolphins: 0-3, -14.54
The market has been incredibly slow to price the Cardinals down, but it needs to happen. They’re lucky to have a 2-2 NFL record, as they’re yet to finish regulation leading a game. Despite having two overtime sessions through the first month of the season, they’ve scored at least 20 points in only one game. People think of the Cardinals as a high-scoring team — and they were second (30.6 PPG) and sixth (26.1 PPG) in 2015-16 — but without running back David Johnson they have dropped to 22nd (18.5 PPG). No quarterback has thrown the ball more than Carson Palmer (183 attempts), but the Cardinals have yet to turn this aerial volume into offensive production.
As for the Dolphins, if not for the incompetency of the Chargers they’d have an 0-3 NFL record. They’re yet to score 20 points in a game, and they have six points total over their last two contests. They’ve had a brutal stretch to open the season . . .
- Week 1: Buccaneers at Dolphins – postponed to Week 11 because of Hurricane Irma
- Week 2: Dolphins at Chargers – on the road
- Week 3: Dolphins at Jets – on the road
- Week 4: Saints at Dolphins – on the road at the London game
. . . and it’s possible that some of their early woes are due to the schedule, but this team looks untouchable. Jay Ajayi has been one of the most disappointing fantasy running backs of the season. Whatever magic they had last year to turn a 1-4 start into a 10-6 playoff appearance has disapparated.
No team has hit its implied total in every game, although we have five teams that are 3-1.
- Los Angeles Rams: 3-1, +12.67
- New England Patriots: 3-1, +3.25
- Detroit Lions: 3-1, +2.58
- Philadelphia Eagles: 3-1, +2.25
- New York Jets: 3-1, +1.67
The Rams are the highest-scoring team in the league and coming off a big win in Dallas. The sharp money that liked the Rams at their 5.5-game win total in the preseason seems safe. They have a 3-1 NFL record and are atop the NFC West. The Patriots are second in the league in scoring. Despite their early-season struggles, the Pats are still putting up points. The Lions have a 3-1 NFL record and are tied for first in the NFC North. Even though people generally believe otherwise, Jim Caldwell is a competent coach. The Eagles lead the NFC East with a 3-1 record. The continued development of second-year starter Carson Wentz (5.7 adjusted yards per attempt last year; 7.4 this year) is encouraging. The Jets are tied with the Pats with their 2-2 NFL record. Amazingly, with Josh McCown at quarterback they’ve outscored the division-leading Bills 18.75 to 18.25 PPG.
Over/Under
Offensive production within an NFL contest is often correlated across teams. As a result, many sharp DFS players stack games (instead of just teams) in guaranteed prize pools. To highlight teams that tend to play in games that hit or surpass the Vegas total, I’ve created an Over/Under Differential metric: The actual total of games minus their over/unders. As an example: The Cardinals had an average Vegas total of 45.5 PPG in Weeks 1-4, but their games actually totaled only 41.25 PPG. Thus, they have an Over/Under Differential of -4.25.
Two teams are yet to participate in a game that hit the over.
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 0-4, -6.63
- Miami Dolphins: 0-3, -19.67
Although the Steelers have a 3-1 NFL record and started to get back on track in Week 4, their offense has been mediocre in 2017, ranking 18th with 22.5 PPG, and their defense has been excellent, holding opposing teams to the league’s second-lowest total at 14.75 PPG. With an underperforming offense and staunch defense, the Steelers seem unlikely to participate in many high-scoring games. And what is there to say about the Dolphins? It’s hard for a team to hit the over when it’s last in the league with 8.33 PPG.
Two teams are yet to be in a game that hit the under.
- Los Angeles Rams: 4-0, +17.13
- New England Patriots: 4-0, +15.5
This is what you get with a couple of top-two offenses and bottom-five defenses (Rams – 26.25 PPG allowed, 28th; Pats – 32.0 PPG allowed, 31st). Until these defenses improve, we should expect shootouts. New England’s inability to offer any sort of defensive resistance was a primary reason to be on Cam Newton in Week 4.
By the way, Cam was owned at just 2.69 percent in DraftKings guaranteed prize pools — and he was in the Week 4 Millionaire Maker-winning lineup. Honestly, stop reading right now. I won’t have another call that good for the rest of the season.
Point Spread
The spread is the go-to number for Vegas and DFS, as it is predictive of game script and outcome. As a result I’ve created a Spread Differential metric so we can see how teams have done on a PPG basis relative to the spread. The Cardinals in Weeks 1-4 were -3.25 favorites on average, but this season their opponents have outscored them by 4.25 PPG. As a result, they have a woeful -7.5 Spread Differential.
Two teams are winless against the spread (ATS).
- Arizona Cardinals: 0-4, -7.5
- Los Angeles Chargers: 0-3-1, -5.0
Given that the Cardinals haven’t hit an implied total yet this season, it’s not surprising that they are yet to cover. As for the Chargers . . .
Who could’ve possibly foreseen the calamity that has become the 2017 Chargers?https://t.co/gMYkTnutb0 pic.twitter.com/6Ies2Y6DnQ
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) October 1, 2017
. . . you probably should’ve seen this coming.
Two teams are undefeated ATS:
- Buffalo Bills: 4-0, +7.50
- Kansas City Chiefs: 3-0, +12.33
With a 3-1 NFL record, the Bills have sole possession of first place in the AFC East. As I’ve mentioned in previous pieces, the Bills are legitimate. Despite trading away wide receiver Sammy Watkins and cornerback Ronald Darby in the preseason, the Bills are playing to win. In Week 1 they covered at home as 7.0-point favorites over the Jets, who are bad, but it’s doubtful the Bills should be laying a touchdown to any NFL team. And then in Week 2 they covered as 6.5-point road underdogs against a tough Panthers team even though the Bills scored only three points and managed just 176 yards of offense. In Week 3, the Bills took it to the mighty Broncos 26-16 for the victory. And then in Week 4 the Bills won on the road 23-17 to hand the Falcons their first loss of the season.
The Bills are just 23rd with 18.25 PPG, but their defense — led by first-year HC Sean McDermott and an entirely new secondary — is holding opponents to a league-low 13.5 PPG. At worst, the Bills have shown themselves to be a hard-nosed team with the capacity to stay competitive deep into games. Even if the Bills regress, they could be a source of backdoor covers and unexpected (and low-owned) fantasy production: Since 2015, Tyrod Taylor has been the cheap Konami Code quarterback for people looking to pay down at the position in cash games.
The Chiefs play tonight on Monday Night Football. At some point they’ll cool off — they’re still quarterbacked by Alex Smith and it’s not likely that Kareem Hunt is the greatest running back of all time — but their 9.0-win over/under from the preseason now looks ridiculous. With a 3-0 NFL record, the Chiefs are the league’s last undefeated team.
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For fantasy insight on the weekly market, read Ben Gretch’s Deconstructing the Vegas Betting Lines (out on Fri./Sat.).
