I said we were getting rid of the Intros, so let’s just dive right into it.
Let’s go!
Actually . . .
Before we break down some ways to deal with the these chalky options, I would be remiss not to mention a FantasyLabs piece written earlier in the week. Jonathan Bales used our free Trends Tool to take a look at how accurate our ownership projections have been this year.
Spoiler alert: They have been pretty darn awesome.
Quarterback: Tom Brady
Projected Ownership: 13-16 percent (DK)
This is an interesting game, because it seems that most would agree on the projected game script being something along the lines of the Patriots demolishing the Browns. The discrepancy seems to be with how the Patriots handle that demolition. Will head coach Bill Belichick allow #AngryTom to throw the ball all over the field even once they carry a lead? Or will it quickly turn into a game in which the Patriots get up early and decide to pound LeGarrette Blount?
You are going to have to take a stance somewhere if you want access to the Patriots offense. Blount is the obvious choice if you don’t think that the Patriots will run up the score in the second half, as he is currently projected to be in only nine to 12 percent of lineups. Blount makes sense as a leverage play off of Brady, given the extent to which the Pats are favored, but as pointed out in Matthew Freedman’s Week 5 Quarterback Breakdown, a large point spread has actually been a positive for Brady, even when he’s been away from Gillette.
So, let’s assume that you want to roster Brady. If that be the case, then the next obvious move would be to pair him with wide receiver Julian Edelman, who currently has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of 21-25 percent. However, no other Patriots receiver is currently projected to be in more than eight percent of lineups this week, so it may be worth stacking Brady (and maybe Edelman) with a lower-owned teammate.
The return of Brady has catapulted Edelman’s salary $900 in one week, but Rob Gronkowski, whose 120 targets in 2015 led the Patriots, is still only $6,500 — a price he dropped to last week for the first time since 2014. Gronk currently has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of only two to four percent, and although there is some concern surrounding his health this may be an opportunity to access Gronk’s upside with a fantastic combination of low salary and low ownership.
I suggest keeping an eye on our News feed for any updates regarding Gronk’s health. He is fully expected to play, but Martellus Bennett could be an excellent option if Gronk serves primarily as a blocker once again. Bennett currently has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of five – eight percent and a 99 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Running Back: DeAndre Washington
Projected Ownership: 21-25 percent (FD)
Washington is currently carrying a position-high FantasyLabs ownership projection of 21-25 percent, and it is for good reason: His current Projected Plus/Minus of +8.3 is more than three points higher than any other RB’s. Washington is only $200 more than the minimum salary for FanDuel RBs, so there aren’t many similarly-priced pivot options.
Despite his ownership projection, I don’t think that it’s necessary to fade Washington. There isn’t much obvious value at RB, and his bottom-of-the-barrel salary allows enough flexibility to differentiate your lineup elsewhere. Just remember that other fantasy players who roster Washington will also be left with plenty of salary and are more likely to land on some of the more-expensive chalk plays of the week, such as Aaron Rodgers or Brady at QB or Antonio Brown at WR.
I think this is a fine example of how taking chalky value plays can be perfectly acceptable in tournaments. As long as you strategically differentiate elsewhere and remain cognizant of how that play could drive ownership toward other players, it’s fine.
If you are looking for some same-team leverage, Amari Cooper could be worth a look. He might go under-owned with DeAndre being such a popular play and Michael Crabtree coming off of a three-touchdown game. Amari currently has seven Pro Trends, the 10th-highest ceiling projection among WRs, and a FantasyLabs ownership projection of only nine to 12 percent.
Wide Receiver: Antonio Brown
Projected Ownership: 26-30 percent (FD)
I discussed how awesome Brown is in last week’s piece, in which he was also featured as the chalkiest of chalk WRs. After one more week of review . . . he’s still awesome.
Also awesome is teammate Le’Veon Bell, who currently carries a FantasyLabs ownership projection of ‘only’ 17-20 percent. I suppose that Le’Veon is technically ‘leverage’ off of Antonio, but a fifth of the field will be gaining that same leverage. However, I don’t hate (I always love) the idea of pairing them in the same lineup.
Sammie Coates is coming off of a game last week in which he was the most-targeted member of the Steelers offense. It is highly unlikely that he receives similar market share this week, but per Bryan Mears’ Week 5 Market Share Report Coates has accounted for 30.8 percent of the team’s air yards, which is second only to Antonio’s 34.3 percent market share. I don’t think we can reasonably expect another eight-target game, but even a handful of targets could pay off for Coates, who is $5,300 and currently projected to be in only five to eight percent of lineups this week. If you want some low-owned exposure to the Steelers offense, look no further than Sammie.
Of course, you could still roll out Antonio, either by himself or with one or two of his aforementioned teammates. If that be the case, there are a few solid options on the opposing team to gain some differentiation. If the Steelers get up early, both Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa should benefit from a favorable game script, but Enunwa is the more intriguing option due to his FantasyLabs ownership projection of nine to 12 percent.
Tight Ends: Zach Ertz
Projected Ownership: 21-25 percent (DK)
Ertz is back from injury, only $3,500, and set to face a Lions defense that allows a league-worst 5.1 Opponent Plus/Minus to TEs, so it makes sense that he is going to be among the highest-owned players of Week 5. Luckily, the TE position is one that can easily be differentiated by utilizing the flex spot on DraftKings. If you are going to roll out some Ertz lineups, don’t be afraid to roster another TE alongside him. Two-TE roster construction is not utilized as often as it probably should be.
Jordan Matthews offers some leverage off of Ertz and currently has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of only two to four percent. Also, he makes sense as a pivot off of Edelman, who is only $100 cheaper and sure to be a popular play. J-Matt was targeted only three times in the Eagles’ most-recent game versus the Steelers, but I am not too concerned with his market share of targets going forward: No Eagles WR saw more than five targets in that game, and Matthews’ 55 snaps led the bunch.
Zach Miller‘s price has risen $900 since last week, but he is only $100 more expensive than Ertz, has comparable point projections, and is currently projected to be in nine to 12 percent of lineups. He is a serviceable pivot.
Best of luck in Week 5!
The Week 5 NFL Dashboard
For more information on other Week 5 plays, see the positional breakdowns and team previews on our NFL dashboard.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
