Week 3’s wide receiver/cornerback matchups were highlighted by a return to form for both Michael Thomas and Doug Baldwin, let downs from the Panthers and Raiders, as well as two-touchdown days from Odell Beckham Jr., Jordy Nelson, Brandin Cooks, Sammy Watkins, Stefon Diggs, Golden Tate, and Chris Hogan. Let’s break down this week’s notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
Blue Chips
Julio Jones vs. Bills Secondary
It’s been three weeks and Mount St. Julio has yet to erupt. Last year, Jones’ coming out party was a 12-300-1 performance in Week 4 at home vs. the Panthers’ (then) young and over-matched corners. He has a chance to repeat history this Sunday against the likes of E.J. Gaines, Leonard Johnson, and Tre’Davious White. While the Bills are a top-five defense in average yards per attempt and quarterback rating allowed this season, this has come against Josh McCown, Cam Newton, and Trevor Siemian. Those aren’t terrible quarterbacks, but all three of the aforementioned sub-6’0″ corners have played just three games with the Bills and haven’t experienced the offensive juggernaut that is the dome Falcons.
Overall, the Falcons have averaged 35.5 points per game — with a 35-point median — in their last 14 dome games. Per our Trends tool, Jones has averaged 23.83 DraftKings points per game (PPG) with a +4.9 Plus/Minus and 62 percent Consistency Rating at home since 2014. He’s yet to crack 20 DraftKings points in a game this season, but he’s still the same Julio, as evidenced by his average of 2.98 yards per route run – the fourth-highest mark among all receivers to play at least 50 percent of their team’s snaps. Jones was targeted three times in the end zone upon crossing the 50-yard line last week, and the week’s second-highest implied total bodes well for more fantasy-friendly chances. Jones has been limited in practice this week with a sore lower back, but he’s no stranger to appearing on the injury report. He’s the slate’s third-most expensive WR on both DraftKings and FanDuel after his $500 price decrease from last week.
A.J. Green vs. Browns Secondary
Green broke out of his two-game slump in Week 3 with a 10-111-1 line on a season-high 13 targets. With Tyler Eifert (back) expected to miss several weeks and first-round pick John Ross questionable with a knee injury, the Bengals’ passing game will continue to flow through Green. This is good news considering he’s averaged 21.9 DraftKings PPG and over 100 receiving yards in his 40 career games with 10-plus targets. Sometimes extra defensive attention can be too much for even the most talented receivers to overcome, but as the Bengals’ new-look offense demonstrated against the Packers last week, containing Green is easier said than done:
Slot corner Briean Boddy-Calhoun has allowed a league-low 0.05 yards per cover snap from the slot this season, but outside corners Jason McCourty and Jamar Taylor have allowed a combined 359 yards on 34 targets. The Browns have the second-worst defense in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers through three weeks and ranked 30th in the metric in 2016. Andy Dalton may not be #good, but he’s been capable of getting Green the ball: Only Antonio Brown has averaged more DraftKings PPG than Green since the beginning of last season.
Dez Bryant vs. Rams Secondary
Bryant managed to face off against PFF’s first-, second-, fifth-, sixth-, and 10th-best cornerbacks from a season ago during the last three weeks. It hasn’t been pretty, but he’s managed to score two touchdowns and leads the league in targets inside the 10-yard line. Next up is a likely shadow date with Trumaine Johnson, who at 6’2″ and 204 pounds has the size to match up with Bryant but has allowed an average of 2.02 yards per cover snap this season – the fifth-highest mark among all full time corners. Slot corner Nickell Robey-Coleman has been much better statistically this season but doesn’t stand much of a chance to match Bryant physically at 5’7″ and 170 pounds.
Bryant hasn’t gotten back to the same heights he reached with Tony Romo under center, but his chemistry with Dak Prescott has clearly been better than with any other non-Romo quarterback:
- Bryant with Prescott (16 full games including playoffs): 4.38 rec, 65.13 yards, 0.75 TDs
- Bryant with Brandon Weeden, Matt Cassel, and Kellen Moore (7 games since 2014): 3.14 rec, 42.43 yards, 0.43 TDs
Overall, Bryant has caught 12 touchdowns in his last 14 full games with Prescott. The Rams are fresh off allowing Brian Hoyer to throw for the second-most yards of his career, and their 11 pass plays of 20-plus yards allowed are tied for the fourth-most in the league. Bryant’s $6,500 price tag on DraftKings is his lowest of the season, and he ranks among the top-11 wide receivers in Week 4’s main slate in market share of his team’s targets, touchdowns, and yards over the past calendar year. For the first time this season, Bryant has a plus matchup to capitalize on his WR1 workload with nearly unrivaled red zone opportunity.
This year, FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across GPPs of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs.
Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas vs. Raiders Secondary
Sanders and Thomas have once again worked as the Broncos’ 1A and 1B receivers as opposed to a true No. 1 and No. 2 setup. They’ve both seen at least six targets in each game this season, although Sanders has been Siemian’s preferred red zone receiver. Although each receiver’s ceiling is somewhat limited by the other’s presence, they’ve managed to each gain 100-plus yards in the same game on seven separate occasions since 2014. This week they’ll face off against a Raiders defense that has allowed bottom-five marks in yards per attempt and quarterback rating through three weeks. The Raiders join the Panthers as the only teams without a cornerback who has allowed a passer rating under 95 this season.
No. 1 corner Sean Smith played just three snaps last week due to a neck and shoulder injury, and the rest of the secondary consists of talented first-round pick Gareon Conley, David Amerson (three touchdowns allowed this season), and T.J. Carrie (allowed the fifth-highest catch rate among all corners to see double-digit targets). The league’s fifth-worst defense in pass DVOA is backed up by two safeties in Karl Joseph and Reggie Nelson who are both better against the run than in coverage. Both receivers could see plenty of fantasy-friendly opportunities: Siemian’s average of 5.7 pass attempts inside the 20-yard line per game is the fifth-highest mark among all quarterbacks this season. Sanders and Thomas are comparatively cheaper on FanDuel this week, where they boast Bargain Ratings of 80 and 85 percent, respectively.
Potential Fades
Mike Evans vs. Giants Secondary
It was #RhodesClosed for Evans last week, as it took him 12 targets to post a 7-67-0 stat line. No ice buckets were spared during the Buccaneers’ 17-point loss to the Vikings, and things won’t get easier for the passing game against a Giants secondary that is one of just five units to allow fewer than 200 passing yards and less than 7.0 yards per attempt this season. Janoris Jenkins is expected to follow Evans around for most of the afternoon, just as he did in Week 1 and Week 3 with Bryant and Alshon Jeffery. That pair combined for fewer than 100 yards and zero touchdowns against Jenkins, who is able to disrupt the timing of larger receivers thanks to his body control and ability to read and react to routes:
Evans has been targeted at least eight times in 15 of his last 18 games and is one of the best 50/50 receivers in the league. Still, he finds himself pitted against an elite secondary that ranked first in DVOA against WR1s last season. Second-year corner Eli Apple has been picked on all season, but Evans should run most of his routes against Jenkins or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the slot. Rodgers-Cromartie has allowed the third-fewest yards per cover snap among full time slot corners this season and possesses the size to hang with Evans. The DeSean Jackson effect helps prevent secondaries from focusing too much on Evans, but the Giants are a unique team in that they have capable defensive backs to match up with him one-on-one. Evans has the lowest projected ceiling in our Models among all receivers priced over $7,500 on FanDuel this week.
Alshon Jeffery vs. Chargers Secondary
Jeffery has had to deal with the likes of Josh Norman, Marcus Peters, and Jenkins during the first three weeks of the season, and now he gets Casey Hayward. One of few corners who consistently shadows the opposition’s biggest and baddest receiver, Hayward allowed the third-lowest quarterback rating among all full time cornerbacks last season. The Chargers ranked sixth in DVOA against No. 1 receivers last season, while Hayward has held both Thomas and DeVante Parker scoreless this season on 17 combined targets. Jeffery’s 28 targets are tied with Zach Ertz‘s for the most on the Eagles, but his average of 6.64 yards per target is a yard worse than his previous career-low. Jeffery and Carson Wentz haven’t been on the same page yet, and one of the league’s best cover corners and scariest pass rushes isn’t exactly what the doctor ordered.
Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree vs. Broncos Secondary
Crabtree is currently questionable for Sunday with a chest injury, but it’s hard to be too optimistic about Cooper’s chances even if he’s the Raiders’ undisputed No. 1 receiver. He leads the league with six drops through three weeks, and his average of 1.12 yards per route run is well off his mark of 1.95 yards from 2016. Cooper hasn’t gained over 100 yards in 12 consecutive games and scored just four touchdowns during that stretch. The Broncos’ No Fly Zone offers little room to run outside of Bradley Roby, and Cooper has really struggled against them in years past:
- Cooper vs. Broncos (4 games): 3.5 rec, 35.5 yards, 0.25 TDs, 8.6 DraftKings PPG
- Cooper vs. all other teams (31 games): 4.8 rec, 70.7 yards, 0.35 TDs, 14.0 PPG
Bryant was shut down against the Broncos, posting a 7-56-1 line on 16 targets. Somehow that was the best fantasy performance a top-tier receiver has managed to put on the Broncos since the beginning of last season. Cooper is too talented and the Raiders offense is too good for him to struggle for this long, but expecting a slump-busting game against the Broncos probably isn’t wise.
Honorable Mentions
- Pierre Garcon vs. Cardinals Secondary: Garcon’s +3.7 Plus/Minus on DraftKings is the 10th-best mark among all wide receivers this season, but now he gets Patrick Peterson, who has allowed three catches all season and is on pace to allow a total of 117 passing yards. Until further notice, stay away from the best corner in the game.
- Antonio Brown vs. Ravens Secondary: Cornerback Jimmy Smith hasn’t shadowed anybody this season, and while Brown has historically shared his quarterback’s severe home/away splits, he’s paced all receivers in yards and receptions through two weeks.
- Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan vs. Panthers Secondary: When Tom Brady is on fire, it’s a good thing for everyone involved in the offense. While Hogan could be used less often in the slot with the return of Danny Amendola, Patriots receivers priced over $4,000 on DraftKings have averaged 14.06 PPG with a +1.86 Plus/Minus in New England with an implied team total over 28 since 2014.
- Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess vs. Patriots Secondary. On the one hand, the Pats have allowed the third-most 20-plus yard pass plays and a league-high 31.7 PPG. Some might compare playing Cam Newton this week to burning your hard-earned cash, but Benjamin (knee, questionable) and Funchess are the Panthers’ top-two targets with Greg Olsen out, and the Patriots have allowed 13.0-plus DraftKings points to five separate receivers this season.
The Shadow Factor
Very few cornerbacks shadow a receiver for the entirety of a game due to various scheme factors from both the offense and defense. Still, there are candidates each week who could see a heavy dose of their snaps against a single corner, including:
- Dez Bryant vs. Trumaine Johnson
- Mike Evans vs. Janoris Jenkins
- DeVante Parker vs. Marshon Lattimore
- Marvin Jones vs. Xavier Rhodes
- Pierre Garcon vs. Patrick Peterson
- Alshon Jeffery vs. Casey Hayward
- Stefon Diggs vs. Darius Slay
- Marqise Lee vs. Morris Claiborne
