Using our Stacking tool found within our revamped Models 3.0, this piece will identify some of the top stacks of the weekend. Check out our new Correlations page as well to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver
- Tyrod Taylor ($5,300 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
- Jordan Matthews ($3,900 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
Currently the top-rated DraftKings stack in both the Bales and CSURAM88 Models, the Bills duo is likely to be very low-owned this week, making them an intriguing play in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) like the Millionaire Maker. Per the NFL Contests Dashboard, Taylor and Matthews were stacked in just 0.09 percent of lineups in last week’s Millionaire Maker. Taylor was featured both as a ‘model quarterback’ in this week’s QB Breakdown and discussed on the Week 4 Daily Fantasy Flex. The Bills are currently eight-point underdogs in the game with the second-highest total of the week, so Taylor is likely to be playing from behind in a potential shootout. Matthews hasn’t been great this season, but he had a season-high target total (five) last week, and pairing him with Taylor gives an incredible amount of roster flexibility because of his low salary. Matthews is currently the No. 2 rated WR in the Bales Model, and his 22.5-point projected ceiling is 21st among receivers on DraftKings’ main slate.
Running Back + D/ST
- Joe Mixon ($5,700 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
- Cincinnati Defense ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel)
Mixon and the Cincinnati defense is currently a top-rated stack in Adam Levitan’s Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Mixon saw more than double the snaps of both Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill in Week 3 (per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report) and appears to be new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor’s running back of choice. For the season, Mixon has logged 49.3 percent of Cincinnati’s carries. Matthew Freedman noted this in his Week 4 RB Breakdown:
Mixon has double-digit touches in each game and last week played as the lead back, seeing 55.7 percent of Cincinnati’s snaps and 21 touches.
The Cincinnati D/ST currently has the highest projected ceiling (15.2) on DraftKings and is second to only Seattle on FanDuel with their 15.6-point projected ceiling. The Bengals are currently three-point road favorites at Cleveland, and defenses playing on the road as one- to five-point favorites have averaged 8.32 points with a +0.66 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 8.28 points with a +0.87 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Wide Receiver
- Matt Ryan ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
- Julio Jones ($8,800 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
- Mohamed Sanu ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
This Falcons triple stack currently has the highest total point projection for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Quarterbacking the team with the second-highest implied point total of the week, Ryan has the third-highest ceiling projection for both sites. In 15 games since 2015 as a home favorite, Ryan has averaged 20.81 points with a +1.44 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 19.67 points with a +0.90 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He has, however, failed to meet his salary-based expectations on both sites in eight of those 15 games. Jones has been relatively quiet this year, but he did explode for 12 catches and 300 yards at home in Week 4 last season; his upside is always enormous. That said, Freedman gave some excellent Julio analysis in this week’s WR Breakdown:
Julio has struggled since last season as a home favorite, averaging 17.44 DraftKings and 13.37 FanDuel PPG and -2.31 and -2.34 Plus/Minus values at unbelievable ownership rates of 23.2 and 33.4 percent. When the Falcons are home favorites, they tend to lean on the running game. Julio’s one of the best receivers in the league — last year he was first at Pro Football Focus with 3.12 yards per route run — but his circumstances are deceptively negative.
Sanu has been more involved in Steve Sarkisian’s Atlanta offense this season, currently claiming a 22.83 percent target share — only 5.43 percentage points less than Jones’ share. Sanu, who has exceeded his salary-based expectations on both sites in every game this year, is currently a top-15 rated receiver in several of our Pro Models.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Tight End
- Tom Brady ($8,000 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel)
- Brandin Cooks ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
- Rob Gronkowski ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
You’ll need to get financially creative in other spots to play this Patriots triple stack, but the upside this trio offers is undeniable. The New England-Carolina game has the highest over/under at 49.5 points, and the Pats lead the slate with an implied total of 29.3 points. Brady has thrown for 825 yards and eight touchdowns the past two weeks on his way to an average of 36.75 DraftKings and 33.25 FanDuel points per game in those contests. Cooks put Patriots fans at ease with 35.10 DraftKings and 29.60 FanDuel points last week behind five catches for 131 yards and two touchdowns, including a toe-tapping game-winner with less than 30 seconds. Gronkowski currently leads all Patriots with a 22.73 percent target share and has been targeted three times inside the 10-yard line this season. Gronk has been targeted between six to 10 times in each game this year; he has historically crushed when given that type of monthly volume, producing 17.28 points and a +3.25 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 14.11 points and a +2.68 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. To Gronk or not to Gronk was pondered as always in this week’s TE Breakdown.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Deshaun Watson ($5,100 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
- DeAndre Hopkins ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
- Eric Decker ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
Watson is currently the top-rated quarterback in the Bales Model for DraftKings, where he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating and the seventh-highest projected ceiling (28.2) among quarterbacks on the main slate. Per Pro Football Reference, the Titans have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points (22.7) and third-most FanDuel points (21.3) per game to quarterbacks this season. Nobody in the NFL has seen more targets than Hopkins (37), who has led Houston in Air Yards for two of three games while hogging an incredible 39.78 percent of the Texans’ targets. As for Decker: Joe Holka noted in this week’s Regression Report that he is due for positive touchdown regression.
Decker’s yardage totals have gone up each week, and it’s only a matter of time before he gets into the paint; he’s posted the seventh-highest red zone target market share in the league so far this season.
Good luck this week!
