This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze the relevant players from the best NFL games of the week. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis by looking at the dynamics of expected game flow, pace, Vegas lines, and advanced analytics.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills
Steve Sarkisian has historically made a concerted effort to play to the strengths of his teams. Through three games, the Falcons are 13th in percentage of rush plays (43.8 percent) and have played at a slightly below-average pace. It’s possible the Falcons will continue to rely on the running game in 2017, as they were sixth in run/pass ratio under Kyle Shanahan last year.
Unsurprisingly, the Bills are currently the second-most run-heavy team in the league. Over the last two years, the Bills are second in rushing attempts and first in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and average percentage of rushing plays. In his nine years as a coordinator, never has Rick Dennison coordinated an offense in the bottom third of the league in pace. It seems likely that the Bills won’t play slowly this year, and it’s possible they could even operate at a top-10 pace.
The over/under sits at 48.5 points — highest on the main slate — and the Falcons’ implied total of 28.25 trails only the Patriots’ mark of 28.5. Per our Week 4 Vegas Report, the Bills are one of only two teams that remain undefeated against the spread in all three weeks; they come into this game as 8.5-point underdogs. They hit the over in 11 of 16 games last season.
Matt Ryan has thrown just four touchdown passes to four different players through three weeks, which is probably more touchdown regression than most predicted coming into the season. Given the even distribution of passing touchdowns, it may make sense to run Ryan out with Devonta Freeman to try to capture the majority of the Atlanta touchdowns in a potential shootout. Ryan has a fantasy points correlation value of 0.34 with Freeman and a 0.32 ownership correlation. Playing two running backs in the same game is typically not optimal, but given the Falcons’ struggles against pass-catching backs, one way to differentiate this stack could be to roll it back with LeSean McCoy on the other side of the ball. Here are the correlation values for actual fantasy points versus the ownership values (based on positions):
The actual points correlation values are still positive with Ryan and McCoy, but opposing running backs provide an even lower ownership correlation than an opponent’s WR1 (0.25), WR2 (0.21), or TE1 (0.21). After lineups lock, visit our DFS Contests Dashboard and use our Stack Seeker tool to identify the top contrarian stack of the week.
Matt Ryan, QB
With just 16.5 fantasy points per game (PPG) to start the year, Ryan will need to turn it on if he hopes to repeat last year’s MVP performance. He’s thrown just four touchdowns in three games, and it doesn’t get any easier this week: The Bills surrendered the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns per game (1.18) and eighth-fewest DraftKings PPG to quarterbacks in 2016.
Devonta Freeman, RB
Buffalo was 30th in run DVOA and 21st to running backs in the passing game in 2016. While the presence of Tevin Coleman limits his ceiling, Freeman has a 2017 opportunity share — percentage of total team carries plus targets — of 63.4 percent to Coleman’s 35.5 (Player Profiler).
Julio Jones, WR
Sarkisian vowed to get Julio more involved in the red zone this year, but he has just one red zone target all season and zero touchdowns. Touchdown upside seems to always hold Julio back, and Week 4 brings a tough matchup against a Bills defense that allowed the eighth-fewest DraftKings points to wide receivers last year. That said, he should run most of his routes against cornerback E.J. Gaines (per our Matchups page), which is certainly a matchup Julio can win. Per our Trends tool, Julio has averaged 20.45 DraftKings PPG and a +1.33 Plus/Minus at 25.8 percent ownership as a home favorite over the past three seasons.
Tyrod Taylor, QB
He leads all quarterbacks this season with eight rush attempts per game. Over his career, in games he has had at least five rush attempts, he has averaged 21.7 DraftKings PPG. As a road underdog over the past three seasons, he’s averaged 16.54 PPG and a 50 percent Consistency Rating at a low ownership rate of 3.5 percent. Taylor should be low-owned yet again and has a nice floor, but he may have limited upside given his lack of receiving weapons.
LeSean McCoy, RB
McCoy is seeing 6.7 targets per game in this offense but has struggled on the ground with just 2.9 yards per carry on 16 carries per game. The Falcons were ranked 25th at defending running backs in the passing game last year; McCoy has upside in both the running and passing game in this matchup.
New England Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers
In the 17-year Bill Belichick era, the Pats have been top-12 in pass attempts and rush attempts in 76.5 and 64.7 percent of seasons, respectively. Through three games this season, the Patriots have thrown the seventh-most passes and have the 12th-most rushing attempts operating as one of the fastest-paced offenses in the league.
The Panthers, meanwhile, are a conservative team. Over the last six years, not once have they been outside the top-12 in rushing yardage, outside the top-10 in run/pass ratio, or inside the top-10 in neutral pace.
The over/under sits at 48.0 points — second-highest on the main slate — and the spread favors the Patriots at home by nine points. New England covered the spread at the highest rate of any team last season at 13-3 ATS and are one of four teams yet to be in a game that has hit the under in 2017.
New England has surrendered the most points in the league to start the year (31.7 PPG), but somehow the Panthers last week scored just 13 points against the Saints, whose defense ranked 30th and 23rd in pass and run DVOA in 2016. For a team decimated by injuries on offense, it’s hard to get excited about the Panthers in this one, which could lower the upside of the Patriots’ passing game as well.
Regardless, the Tom Brady–Rob Gronkowski stack usually carries significant ownership. Brady has a fantasy points correlation value of 0.41 with Gronk and a 0.44 ownership correlation (per our NFL Correlations page). One way to differentiate this stack could be to roll it back with the most likely beneficiary of poor game script on the other side of the ball: rookie running back Christian McCaffrey. Here are the correlation values for actual fantasy points versus the ownership values (based on positions):
The ownership correlation between Brady, Gronk, and McCaffrey could be lower than traditional stacks, despite the fact that they have very correlated outcomes.
Tom Brady, QB
He’s expensive with the highest QB salary on both DraftKings & FanDuel. That said, Brady has one of the week’s highest ceilings in our Models facing a Panthers team that surrendered the 10th-most passing touchdowns and DraftKings PPG to quarterbacks in 2016.
Rob Gronkowski, TE
Even though Gronk has missed 24 games in his seven-year career, he still leads the league over that time with 70 total touchdowns. The Panthers allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends last year, and Gronk’s 26 percent market share of air yards leads the position through three weeks.
Brandin Cooks, WR
Cooks has strong field-stretching ability (4.33-second 40) and leads the team with a 30.0 percent market share of air yards on just 16.0 percent of his team’s targets. He’s expensive given his lack of volume but carries a massive ceiling — he had a 5-31-2 line in Week 3.
Cam Newton, QB
Newton has thrown for 300 or more yards only once in the last 13 games. He’s scored just two rushing touchdowns in his last 10. And finally, last year he had career-lows with a 3.7 percent touchdown rate and 6.4 AY/A mark. Rookie Deshaun Watson hit the 300-yard DraftKings bonus in Foxborough last week, but Cam inspires little confidence as anything more than a contrarian flyer given his current play.
Christian McCaffrey, RB
This is not an ideal matchup, as the Patriots ranked fifth in rush defense DVOA last season, but McCaffrey isn’t game-flow dependent. His 7.7 targets per game trails only Tarik Cohen‘s 8.3 mark for the most in the NFL, and negative game script should keep him heavily involved in the passing game even if he lacks significant touchdown equity.
Good luck, and be sure to read our positional breakdowns later in the week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned, as well as keep you up to date with our NFL Week 4 Injury Dashboard. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading NFL News feed:
