Week 4 of the NFL season is here, and after a month of football action, we’re starting to see how teams are implementing play calling splits and pace tendencies. This Sunday features a few high-powered offenses squaring off in ideal situations.
Check out a few games to target in Week 4, and a few you might want to proceed with caution.
Also, don’t forget to check out our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models.
Games to Target
Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
With the highest total at open with 54.5-points, two of the top-ranked offenses, according to PFF, square off in a matchup that looks to have plenty of scoring through the air.
The Chiefs, coming off a 30-24 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers battle against a Philadelphia Eagles defense, ranking fourth in DVOA. In three games this season, Patrick Mahomes has averaged 313 passing yards per game, calling a play every 30 seconds, ranking 18th in the league. In the Week 3 loss to the Chargers, Mahomes threw for 264 yards and three touchdowns.
Using a pass-pass heavy 62%/32% pass-to-run script, the Chiefs depend on the big play abilities of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, who are responsible for more than 50% of the Chiefs’ target share.
Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles are coming off a 41-21 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Hurts threw for 326 yards and two touchdowns, facing a Cowboys defense that ranks 16th in DVOA. This week, Hurts should have no problem throwing the ball against a Chiefs defense that is last in DVOA and has allowed 269 passing yards per game.
While Hurts is seen more as a dual-threw option, given his rushing ability, he should have plenty of weapons at his disposal. DeVonta Smith and Jalen Reagor, combine to see 40% of the Eagles’ targets and have seen five or more targets in every game this season.
The Eagles, who are 7.5-point underdogs at home, should rely on their quick pace, running a play every 24.9 seconds to help move the ball against a weak Chiefs offense in hopes of keeping this game close. With a plethora of stacking options, there are endless opportunities to create unique stacking configurations with Hurts and Mahomes.
Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings
The Week 4 matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Minnesota Vikings pits two teams who rank in the top 10 in plays called this year, in a matchup opening at a 52.5-point total.
According to PFF, Baker Mayfield and the Browns are coming off a 26-6 win over the Chicago Bears, one of the league’s worst offenses. Mayfield threw for 246 yards and one touchdown, with the Browns calling a balanced 46%/54% run-to-pass spit. Odell Beckham Jr. is a welcomed sight in the Browns’ receiving corps with wide receiver Jarvis Landry on the injured reserve. In the Week 3 win, Beckham saw 31% of the Browns’ target share, catching five passes for 77 yards and should benefit from a Vikings defense that ranks 24th in DVOA.
According to PFF, Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb should be prominent factors in the Browns’ game plan against the Vikings, ranking 23rd in run defense. Hunt is also an option in the passing game, having a strong 0.31 correlation to Mayfield. Both running backs make intriguing options in bring-back stacks but, be sure to avoid the negative correlation between the two in your lineups.
Without Dalvin Cook in the backfield for the Vikings 30-17 win over the Seattle Seahawks, Minnesota relied on a slightly-skewed 57%/43% pass-to-run split, with quarterback Kirk Cousins throwing for 323 yards and three touchdowns, facing a Seahawks defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA. Cleveland, who ranks 10th in defensive DVOA, might prove to be a difficult challenge. The Browns may prefer to use the receiving corps weapons Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson as opposed to Cook, who is coming off an ankle injury, facing a Browns defense which grades out as the third-best according to PFF.
Proceed with Caution
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
This Week 4 matchup has the lowest total on the slate, opening at 42.5 points. According to PFF, both the Lions and Bears grade out among the worst team in the league. On defense, the Lions grade out as the second-worst, only behind the Kansas City Chiefs. A bright spot is quarterback Jared Goff’s tendency to throw the ball, ranking seventh in the league with an average of 46 pass plays per game. In a 19-17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, Goff passed for 217 yards, facing a Ravens’ defense which ranks 20th in DVOA. This week, Goff may have a more difficult time, facing a Bears’ defense that ranks ninth in pass DVOA, limited a potent Browns offense to 246 yards through the air.
Expect tight end TJ Hockenson to lead the receiving corps in looks as the current leader in target share with 17%. D’Andre Swift and Kalif Raymond should also factor into the passing game, with Raymond seeing 10 targets for a 35% target share in Week 3.
With Andy Dalton likely out due to a knee injury, expect Justin Fields to make his second career start. In a 26-6 loss to the Browns, Fields threw for 68 yards with a 30% completion rate. Chicago used a pass-heavy 71%/29% pass-to-run play-calling scheme against a 19th ranked defensive pass DVOA Browns squad. Fields might have an easier time against a Lions’ defense that has difficulty stopping the pass, relying on Darnell Mooney and Allen Robinson for their deep-threat abilities.
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins
Both the Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins offenses grade as the worst in the league, ranking 27th and 25th, respectively. In a matchup with a 43.5-point total, expect a Week 4 matchup devoid of excitement.
Quarterback Carson Wentz threw for 194 yards in a 25-16 loss to the Tennessee Titans, dealing with a lingering ankle injury and in a favorable matchup against the Titans defense, ranking 28th in DVOA. The Dolphins defense looks to be a more difficult test for Wentz, ranking 10th in pass DVOA, limiting a Las Vegas Raiders offense to 197 yards through the air in Week 4. Using a pass-heavy 62%/38% pass-to-run split, the Colts are methodically slow, calling a play every 27 seconds. Michael Pittman should continue to see the bulk of looks as the Colts’ leader in target share with 26%. Running back Nyhiem Hines should also factor into the passing game, splitting the workload with Jonathan Taylor in the backfield.
With Tua Tagovailoa on injured reserve with a rib injury, Jacoby Brissett will make his second start of the season, leading a Dolphins offense against an Indianapolis Colts defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA. Facing the 11th ranked Las Vegas Raiders defense, Brissett threw for 215 yards, completing 65% of his passes. The Dolphins should keep the pace up against the Colts, calling a play every 23.6 seconds, the third-fastest in the league. Currently 1.5-point favorites with an implied team total of 22, the Dolphins should use their tendency to run no-huddle to keep the foot on the gas and currently rank 10th in no-huddle rate (Per the RotoViz Pace App).
