The Models are the lifeblood for our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: things like salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our Models and take a look at some of the players with the highest ceilings, value ratings, and projected ownership for the NFL Week 2 slate.
Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson @ WAS — $8,100 on DraftKings, $9,600 on FanDuel
Jackson is coming off quite possibly the worst game of his career in his last start, but he’s in an elite bounce-back start this week vs. Washington. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.3 on DraftKings, and Washington in particular has struggled against the run. They allowed the Browns to rush for 158 yards last week after allowing the Cardinals to rush for 160 yards in Week 2. The Ravens currently rank fifth in Football Outsiders’ rush offense DVOA, and Jackson is obviously a big reason for their success.
The Ravens are also whopping 13-point favorites in this contest, and Jackson has historically thrived in that situation. He’s taken the field as a favorite of greater than a touchdown in 12 previous instances, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.79 in that situation (per the Trends tool).
Top Value: Dak Prescott vs. CLE — $7,200 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
Prescott has put together some monster performances to start the season. He tallied 39.8 FanDuel points in a comeback win vs. the Falcons in Week 2 and followed that up with 29.48 FanDuel points in a loss vs. the Seahawks in Week 3. He threw for at least 450 passing yards in both contests.
Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Dak Prescott
He’s in another great spot for production this week vs. the Browns, and he leads all QBs in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. The total on this game sits at a slate-high 56.0 points, and the Cowboys’ implied team total of 30.25 ranks third on the slate. The Browns also represent a solid matchup, giving Prescott an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.1 on FanDuel.
Top Ownership: Russell Wilson @ MIA — $7,800 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
There are a bunch of QBs who are projected for solid ownership this week, but Wilson stands out as the chalkiest option. He’s currently projected for a position-high 13-16% ownership on DraftKings and 9-12% ownership on FanDuel.
It’s hard to ignore what Wilson has done to start the season. He’s thrown for 14 touchdowns through his first three games – the most in NFL history – including at least five TD passes in each of his past two. He could have potentially had another TD pass in his last contest if not for D.K. Metcalf’s premature touchdown celebration following a long catch in the first quarter.
The line movement has actually gone against Seattle in Week 4 – which is a bit concerning – but he should still be able to have his way vs. the Dolphins. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.8 on DraftKings, and the Dolphins current rank just 25th in pass defense DVOA. It’s also looking like Byron Jones will miss his second consecutive contest, which would leave the Dolphins without their best defensive player.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Alvin Kamara @ DET — $8,000 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
Kamara could conceivably fit all three of these categories this week. He’s projected for the top ownership and ceiling at the position across the industry, and he’s also projected for the top Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
That said, his ceiling is what really stands out.
He has been an absolute fantasy monster to start the season. He’s averaged 31.1 DraftKings points per game through his first three contests thanks to his ability to contribute in every category across the board. He’s been highly involved around the goal line – he’s garnered nine carries and seven targets inside the red zone this season – and he’s also been highly involved in the passing game.
He may not duplicate his 14 targets from last week if Michael Thomas is able to return to the lineup, but he’s still logged at least eight targets in each of his first three games this season. Kamara has turned 31 targets into 27 catches for 285 yards and three touchdowns this season, so he is producing at a Christian McCaffrey-like level as a receiver to start the year. Until he starts to command a McCaffrey-like price tag, he’s a very tough fade.
Top Value: Myles Gaskin vs. SEA — $5,000 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel
Gaskin leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, where his salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%. The RB situation in Miami is a bit messy, but Gaskin has established himself as the clear top option. He’s coming off 22 carries in their last game, while Matt Breida and Jordan Howard combined for just six. The one downside with Gaskin is that he’s yet to score a touchdown this season. Howard continues to handle the majority of the touches inside the five yard line, so he has vultured his way into three scores.
Myles Gaskin is a savant.
Processing, anticipation, footwork, efficiency, pad angles, flexibility, balance. Maximizes every run. Ruthless. pic.twitter.com/zHY1wWjNCY
— J Moyer (@JMoyerFB) September 24, 2020
That said, Gaskin has made up for that by producing in the passing game. He’s logged at least four catches in each of his first three games, and his 16 targets are tied for the fifth-highest mark at the RB position. Targets are significantly more valuable than carries from a fantasy perspective, so Gaskin should remain a viable fantasy option as long as he continues to contribute as a receiver.
Top Ownership: Ezekiel Elliott vs. CLE — $7,800 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Elliott is the only RB who can challenge Kamara in the ownership department this week.
Zeke has had an interesting start to the season due to the Cowboys’ trailing in each of their first three games. He was still able to command 22 carries in each of his first two contests, but that number dropped to just 14 last week vs. the Seahawks. He should return to a normal workload vs. the Browns if this contest stays more competitive.
Still, Zeke has proven that he is pretty much game-flow independent in 2020. He made up for his low carry volume by garnering 12 targets last week, and his 23 targets through three games ranks second at the position.
Zeke also remains one of the biggest touchdown threats in football, and he’s scored at least once in all three games to start the year.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: DeAndre Hopkins @ CAR — $8,500 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
Kyler Murray had a bit of a down performance last week but that didn’t stop Hopkins from continuing to dominant. He saw another 12 targets in Week 3 and turned those into 10 catches for 137 yards. Hopkins’ 37 targets are tied for the top mark in the league this season, and he’s also posted a ridiculous 86.5% catch rate in his first year with the Cardinals. Most WRs tend to struggle in their first year with a new team, but Hopkins is clearly not most receivers.
He takes the field in an excellent spot this week vs. the Panthers. The Cardinals’ implied team total of 27.25 points isn’t as gaudy as some of the other marks this week, but it’s still an excellent number. The Panthers also rank just 28th in pass defense DVOA to start the year, giving Hopkins an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.7 on DraftKings.
Top Value: Damiere Byrd @ KC — $3,000 on DraftKings, $4,500 on FanDuel
You’re going to need some cheaper options if you’re looking to jam Kamara and Hopkins into your cash lineups this week, and Byrd fits that description. His $3,000 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%, and he leads all WRs with a projected Plus/Minus of +5.32.
Byrd has established himself as one of the top targets in the Patriots’ passing attack this season. He leads all Pats’ WRs in snaps, and he’s played on approximately 90% of their offensive plays this season. Part of that is due to his ability to block but getting on the field is the first step towards scoring fantasy points.
The Patriots may need to air the ball out a bit more vs. the Chiefs this week, just like they had to vs. the Seahawks in Week 2. Byrd finished with nine targets, six catches, and 72 yards in that contest, and that kind of production would make him a solid value at his current price tag.
Top Ownership: Tyler Lockett @ MIA — $7,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
This designation could very easily go to Lockett or Metcalf, who both figure to be very chalky this week. That said, I’ll give the slight edge to Lockett since he’s coming off a monster performance in Week 3. He finished with nine catches for 100 yards and also managed to score three touchdowns.
Part of what makes Seattle such an appealing team from a fantasy perspective is that their targets are pretty concentrated. Lockett and Metcalf have combined for 51 targets through their first three games, and no one else on the team has more than 12. Pairing both guys with Wilson ended up being the optimal strategy in Week 3 vs. the Cowboys, so expect to see a lot of double stacks again this week vs. the Dolphins.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. NE — $6,800 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel
This spot is going to be occupied by Kelce a lot this season. He’s the clear top choice this week since George Kittle is not available on the main slate.
Getty Images. Pictured: Travis Kelce
Kelce is in an interesting spot vs. the Patriots. They have been an excellent pass defense since the start of last season, but most of that stems from their elite cornerback play. Kelce should avoid most of those options as a tight end, and the Pats have been slightly more vulnerable against that position.
They finished just seventh in DVOA vs. TEs in 2019 but ranked first against all No. 1, No. 2, and “other” WRs. Kelce scored 19 DraftKings points vs. the Patriots in their regular season matchup last season, so he can clearly find success against New England.
Top Value: T.J. Hockenson vs. NO — $4,800 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel
Hockenson entered the league with a lot of promise after being drafted No. 8 overall in the 2019 draft. He has a good combination of size and athleticism and has started to develop into one of Matthew Stafford’s favorite targets this season. He’s coming off seven targets in his last contest, which was tied with Kenny Golladay for the top mark on the team.
He could see even more work this week against the Saints, who have been nothing short of a dumpster fire against TEs this season. Hockenson owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.2 on DraftKings, which is easily the top mark at the position.
Top Ownership: Mike Gesicki vs. SEA — $5,100 on DraftKings, $5,700 on FanDuel
Two players are projected for at least 13% ownership at TE on FanDuel: Kelce and Gesicki. Gesicki is coming off a disappointing performance in his last contest, but he remains one of the most intriguing options at the position.
He is an absolute freak athlete at the position, owning an 97th percentile SPARQ-x score per Player Profiler, and he’s been pretty involved in the Dolphins’ passing attack through the first three weeks. He ranks 14th among TEs in routes run, 10th in targets, and seventh in target market share.
Pictured above: Alvin Kamara #41 of the New Orleans Saints
Photo Credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images
