Welcome to Week 4 of Deconstructing the Vegas Betting Lines. The Week 1 article has all you need to know about methodology, but here are the Cliff’s Notes:
- We’re breaking the implied team total into four scoring types — passing, rushing, kicking, and defensive/special teams scores (i.e. returns and safeties).
- To do this, we’re leveraging the rates at which teams score their points and their opposing defenses concede them in each phase of the game.
- There are two calculation methods — one averages the offensive and defensive rates, and the other squares, combines, and square roots the differences of the rates from the league mean. The latter method uses the principles of standard deviation to emphasize rates further from the mean.
As with every analysis, it’s great to get more data each week. We’ve been weaning off 2016 data, and this is the final week we’ll cut it in with the early 2017 rates weighted 75 percent and last year’s rates 25 percent. It’s exciting to start to see which 2016 scoring trends have carried over into 2017.
As always, consult the NFL homepage for more information on individual matchups that stand out. Let’s jump into the Week 4 deconstructions:
Passing Scoring and Notes
2016 League Average Pass TD Points Rate: 40.5 percent
2017 League Average Pass TD Points Rate: 41.0 percent
Note: Lines pulled from Sports Insights on September 30.
The Giants immediately stand out as a team with a lower implied total that is boosted by this analysis. Tampa Bay has allowed four passing touchdowns in two games, while all four of the Giants touchdowns in 2017 have come through the air. The Giants were one of two teams who scored more than 50 percent of their total points in 2016 through passing touchdowns. Tampa Bay’s defense didn’t have extreme rates last year, and it’s possible this is small sample variance early in 2017 (note they’ve played only two games because of the Week 1 bye), but the Giants are the right offense to bet on in case it’s not.
The line has moved 1.5 points toward New York since open, while the over/under has risen by a point. Eli Manning is projected for 0-1 percent ownership in the Models, and he had a strong fourth quarter last week in Philadelphia. Odell Beckham is always in play and continues to get healthier, while Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram have played high snap shares thus far in 2017 and are also in consideration as stack options.
Another offense I’m looking at is the Chargers, who face the aforementioned Eagles that were torched by Manning in the fourth quarter last week. Their secondary allowed a rate of pass touchdown points about five percentage points above league average in 2016 and has been hit for five passing touchdowns already in 2017. Travis Benjamin‘s usage has squeezed Tyrell Williams out of some of the deeper targets he was expected to get. Williams is in play, as nothing through three weeks is set in stone, but the early trends make Benjamin the better tournament play for me, particularly because of lower projected ownership. Keenan Allen is also a strong option, particularly on DraftKings, given his high-reception statistical profile.
Rushing Scoring and Notes
2016 League Average Rush TD Points Rate: 22.7 percent
2017 League Average Rush TD Points Rate: 20.2 percent
While no other defense has allowed more than four rushing touchdowns through three weeks, the Rams have allowed six. The Cowboys, and their second-highest rate of rushing touchdown points in 2016, host them in Dallas as six-point favorites. High-value running backs have averaged over 23 DraftKings points in these spots.
Ezekiel Elliott has played eight games is his young career as a home favorite of at least five points and has scored at least 16 DraftKings points in each.
The rushing split in Atlanta has looked much more like a lead rusher and a passing back early in 2017 than it did last year. Devonta Freeman has led in rush attempts 52 to 20, while Tevin Coleman has surprisingly out-targeted Freeman 13 to 7. Freeman has gotten the high-value carries and has four rushing touchdowns from inside the five-yard line. He’s a strong play as another big home favorite facing a defense that allowed 33.3 percent of points in 2016 via rushing touchdowns, the league’s highest rate. The Bills have allowed only two touchdowns thus far, but both have come on the ground. The high Falcons implied total suggests this is the week the dam breaks, and the scoring rates and touch trends suggest Freeman will be the beneficiary.
Baltimore faces a Steelers defense that conceded rushing points at a rate well above league average in 2016 and has allowed four rushing touchdowns early in 2017. The Ravens have a low total and a trio of running backs, but Week 3 leading rusher Alex Collins was used mostly in garbage time — six of his nine carries came in the fourth quarter of the London blowout. The touchdown potential here probably lands with Javorius Allen or Terrance West. This looks like a low-scoring AFC North affair with little fantasy appeal, but the Bears did gash the Steelers for over 200 rushing yards last week. Allen and West have a little contrarian appeal in large tournaments.
Kicking and Defense/Special Teams Scoring and Notes
2016 League Average Kicking Points Rate: 31.5 percent
2017 League Average Kicking Points Rate: 34.0 percent
Last week, the kicker recommendations fell a bit flat. Three of the five posted negative Plus/Minus values, with Graham Gano looking more like a push at -0.1. Through the first two weeks, just two of the 10 recommendations posted a negative Plus/Minus.
The good news: While this method has been solid thus far, the data is improving. The blend of high totals, scoring a high percentage of points through the kicking game, and facing a defense that concedes a high percentage of points through the kicking game continues to be a great way to choose kickers.
This week’s top plays are Matt Bryant, Wil Lutz, Cody Parkey, Stephen Gostkowski, and Blair Walsh.
2016 League Average D/ST Points Rate: 4.3 percent
2017 League Average D/ST Points Rate: 4.5 percent
As always, the D/ST table is included mostly to be transparent with all the data. In my review of 2015 data, the subdivided defense/special teams scoring projections were the only scoring type to perform worse than the betting lines, and it was notably worse. The implication is that conceding or scoring D/ST touchdowns and safeties isn’t predictive of future performance, which is useful to know, since it’s possible that some teams have inflated over/unders and/or implied point totals if they have scored and/or conceded a high rate of points via defense/special teams.
In other words, it might be useful to fade a small degree of the implied totals for teams who grade highly here. The Lions and Rams are the two teams with multiple defense/special teams return touchdowns early in 2017, boosting their total points scored. The Packers and Colts are the teams who have conceded multiple returns, elevating their points against. Of course, the passing, rushing, and kicking projections in this column reflect relatively lower percentages for those teams that control for this.
Good luck this week, and be sure to use our Tools to research these teams for yourself.
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Ben Gretch is the Senior Fantasy Analyst at RotoViz. He is the author of “2017 Will Not Look Like 2016 – Or Anything We’ve Seen Before” and the weekly column Stealing Signals.
News Updates
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