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NFL Week 3 WR/CB Matchups

WR/CB Matchups

So far in 2016, we are watching young cornerbacks like Jason Verrett and Darius Slay emerge, while at the same time witnessing veterans like Darrelle Revis regress to mediocrity. In order to stay ahead of the game, fantasy players need to make quick adjustments in their analysis of these talented, young cornerbacks to avoid bad situations. Let’s break down this week’s notable WR/CB matchups using our Matchups tool as a guide.

The Studs

Antonio Brown vs. Nolan Carroll

After a down week, Antonio Brown finds himself in a really nice spot against Philadelphia. He will run the majority of his routes against Carroll, who is currently Pro Football Focus’ 93rd-ranked cornerback. Unfortunately for Brown, he is still on the road, a place where the Steelers offense has struggled over the past few years. Brown is the third-highest rated wide receiver in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings Model but only has a two percent Bargain Rating there.

Julio Jones vs. Saints Secondary

In what should have been a dream spot in Week 2, Odell Beckham Jr. posted a disappointing line of eight receptions for 86 yards. Julio Jones now gets to square off against the least-experienced secondary in the NFL. They currently rank 26th against the pass, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric.

With Vegas once again projecting the Saints game for the highest point total of the week, they clearly understand the passing defense deficiencies. Julio has 10 FanDuel Pro Trends this week and should be able to have his way with this secondary.

Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Josh Norman

Even if Beckham isn’t shadowed by Norman, OBJ runs the majority of his routes on that side of the field, according to the FantasyLabs Matchups tool. Norman is PFF’s top cornerback so far this season and is an obvious downgrade for any receiver matched up against him. With Victor Cruz and Sterling Shepard playing well, the Giants have little reason to test Norman this week. Beckham is currently the cheapest of this elite trio of wide receivers for Week 3, but it’s for good reason.

A.J. Green vs. Aqib Talib

According to the FantasyLabs Matchups tool, Green should see the majority of his action against Aqib Talib. As one of the larger NFL cornerbacks, Talib matches up well with A.J. Green physically. While Denver’s secondary struggled in Week 1, they were able to hold Andrew Luck to 197 passing yards in Week 2. Furthermore, Talib currently ranks as PFF’s 22nd-best cornerback and consistently finds himself highly-graded year after year. Even though Talib does not shut down wide receivers by himself, the Broncos’ second-ranked passing defense (per DVOA) as a whole is a serious downgrade for wide receivers. Green rates outside the top-30 wide receivers in Adam Levitan’s FanDuel Player Model.

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Justin Coleman

Hopkins should face off against Justin Coleman more than any other cornerback on the Patriots this week. That being said, it is always difficult to predict how Bill Belichick will defend against an elite WR. Coleman has been very good this year and currently ranks as PFF’s 33rd-best cornerback.

While the cornerback matchup isn’t necessarily a downgrade, look for Belichick to try and remove Hopkins from the game by controlling the clock. Vegas projects this game to have the least points scored on the week and Hopkins is the most volume-dependent of the elite WRs.

hopkinstargetsplits

Notable Upgrades

Travis Benjamin vs. Colts Secondary

The Colts secondary continues to look as bad as we thought they would and Vontae Davis likely remains out this week. Benjamin should face off against Antonio Cromartie (PFF’s 66th-ranked CB) and Rashean Melvin (44th) this Sunday. The Colts secondary as a whole has been awful this year; they currently rank 31st against the pass, per DVOA. Benjamin is the highest-rated receiver in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings Player Model.

Willie Snead vs. Brian Poole

Willie Snead runs the majority of his routes from the slot and will thus avoid Desmond Trufant most of the day. As NFL Network’s Matt Harmon pointed out on Twitter, the Falcons have allowed over 200 yards and two touchdowns between the left and right slot this season. Plus, it never hurts to point out Drew Brees’ home and road splits. He’s at home this weekend. brees-at-superdome

Larry Fitzgerald vs. Nickell Robey

Robey’s name is going to appear often in this column. Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby are elite outside cornerbacks and tend to funnel opposing passing offenses into the middle of the field. Luckily for Fitz, he has begun playing almost entirely in the slot as he has gotten older. Over the last two weeks, Fitz has averaged 7-81-1.5 and should be yet again peppered with targets against the Bills’ weakest cornerback this weekend.

Notable Downgrades

T.Y. Hilton vs. Jason Verrett

With Donte Moncrief sidelined indefinitely, there is good reason to believe that Verrett will shadow Hilton this weekend. Over the first two weeks, Verrett and the Chargers have held both Jeremy Maclin and Allen Robinson to under 65 receiving yards. However, there is uncertainty in this matchup, as Hilton has run over 60 percent of his snaps from the slot this year. Verrett usually doesn’t defend the slot, but Hilton could move outside more this week with Moncrief out. Hilton has an 11 percent Bargain Rating on DK and the Chargers are currently allowing a stingy -0.50 Plus/Minus to opposing receivers.

Going Deep

Jeremy Kerley vs. Jeremy Lane

Jeremy Kerley took a step back in Week 2 and Torrey Smith was the beneficiary, catching three of 10 targets for 55 yards and a touchdown. However, Smith will likely draw a lot of Richard Sherman this weekend, while Kerley should match up against Jeremy Lane in the slot. Lane is no slouch, but he is nowhere near as talented as Sherman and thus the 49ers could heavily target Kerley this week. He is only $3,400 on DraftKings with a 64 percent Bargain Rating.

WR/CB Matchups

So far in 2016, we are watching young cornerbacks like Jason Verrett and Darius Slay emerge, while at the same time witnessing veterans like Darrelle Revis regress to mediocrity. In order to stay ahead of the game, fantasy players need to make quick adjustments in their analysis of these talented, young cornerbacks to avoid bad situations. Let’s break down this week’s notable WR/CB matchups using our Matchups tool as a guide.

The Studs

Antonio Brown vs. Nolan Carroll

After a down week, Antonio Brown finds himself in a really nice spot against Philadelphia. He will run the majority of his routes against Carroll, who is currently Pro Football Focus’ 93rd-ranked cornerback. Unfortunately for Brown, he is still on the road, a place where the Steelers offense has struggled over the past few years. Brown is the third-highest rated wide receiver in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings Model but only has a two percent Bargain Rating there.

Julio Jones vs. Saints Secondary

In what should have been a dream spot in Week 2, Odell Beckham Jr. posted a disappointing line of eight receptions for 86 yards. Julio Jones now gets to square off against the least-experienced secondary in the NFL. They currently rank 26th against the pass, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric.

With Vegas once again projecting the Saints game for the highest point total of the week, they clearly understand the passing defense deficiencies. Julio has 10 FanDuel Pro Trends this week and should be able to have his way with this secondary.

Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Josh Norman

Even if Beckham isn’t shadowed by Norman, OBJ runs the majority of his routes on that side of the field, according to the FantasyLabs Matchups tool. Norman is PFF’s top cornerback so far this season and is an obvious downgrade for any receiver matched up against him. With Victor Cruz and Sterling Shepard playing well, the Giants have little reason to test Norman this week. Beckham is currently the cheapest of this elite trio of wide receivers for Week 3, but it’s for good reason.

A.J. Green vs. Aqib Talib

According to the FantasyLabs Matchups tool, Green should see the majority of his action against Aqib Talib. As one of the larger NFL cornerbacks, Talib matches up well with A.J. Green physically. While Denver’s secondary struggled in Week 1, they were able to hold Andrew Luck to 197 passing yards in Week 2. Furthermore, Talib currently ranks as PFF’s 22nd-best cornerback and consistently finds himself highly-graded year after year. Even though Talib does not shut down wide receivers by himself, the Broncos’ second-ranked passing defense (per DVOA) as a whole is a serious downgrade for wide receivers. Green rates outside the top-30 wide receivers in Adam Levitan’s FanDuel Player Model.

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Justin Coleman

Hopkins should face off against Justin Coleman more than any other cornerback on the Patriots this week. That being said, it is always difficult to predict how Bill Belichick will defend against an elite WR. Coleman has been very good this year and currently ranks as PFF’s 33rd-best cornerback.

While the cornerback matchup isn’t necessarily a downgrade, look for Belichick to try and remove Hopkins from the game by controlling the clock. Vegas projects this game to have the least points scored on the week and Hopkins is the most volume-dependent of the elite WRs.

hopkinstargetsplits

Notable Upgrades

Travis Benjamin vs. Colts Secondary

The Colts secondary continues to look as bad as we thought they would and Vontae Davis likely remains out this week. Benjamin should face off against Antonio Cromartie (PFF’s 66th-ranked CB) and Rashean Melvin (44th) this Sunday. The Colts secondary as a whole has been awful this year; they currently rank 31st against the pass, per DVOA. Benjamin is the highest-rated receiver in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings Player Model.

Willie Snead vs. Brian Poole

Willie Snead runs the majority of his routes from the slot and will thus avoid Desmond Trufant most of the day. As NFL Network’s Matt Harmon pointed out on Twitter, the Falcons have allowed over 200 yards and two touchdowns between the left and right slot this season. Plus, it never hurts to point out Drew Brees’ home and road splits. He’s at home this weekend. brees-at-superdome

Larry Fitzgerald vs. Nickell Robey

Robey’s name is going to appear often in this column. Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby are elite outside cornerbacks and tend to funnel opposing passing offenses into the middle of the field. Luckily for Fitz, he has begun playing almost entirely in the slot as he has gotten older. Over the last two weeks, Fitz has averaged 7-81-1.5 and should be yet again peppered with targets against the Bills’ weakest cornerback this weekend.

Notable Downgrades

T.Y. Hilton vs. Jason Verrett

With Donte Moncrief sidelined indefinitely, there is good reason to believe that Verrett will shadow Hilton this weekend. Over the first two weeks, Verrett and the Chargers have held both Jeremy Maclin and Allen Robinson to under 65 receiving yards. However, there is uncertainty in this matchup, as Hilton has run over 60 percent of his snaps from the slot this year. Verrett usually doesn’t defend the slot, but Hilton could move outside more this week with Moncrief out. Hilton has an 11 percent Bargain Rating on DK and the Chargers are currently allowing a stingy -0.50 Plus/Minus to opposing receivers.

Going Deep

Jeremy Kerley vs. Jeremy Lane

Jeremy Kerley took a step back in Week 2 and Torrey Smith was the beneficiary, catching three of 10 targets for 55 yards and a touchdown. However, Smith will likely draw a lot of Richard Sherman this weekend, while Kerley should match up against Jeremy Lane in the slot. Lane is no slouch, but he is nowhere near as talented as Sherman and thus the 49ers could heavily target Kerley this week. He is only $3,400 on DraftKings with a 64 percent Bargain Rating.